周波：事实证明，不会再有“第二个雅尔塔”

Club提要：8月20日，清华大学战略与安全研究中心研究员周波在《南华早报》发表题为“A new European security landscape is emerging after Alaska summit ”（《阿拉斯加峰会之后，欧洲新的安全格局正在浮现》）的评论文章。

周波认为，阿拉斯加峰会虽未取得实质性成果，但特朗普在美国高规格接待普京，并接受访俄邀请，显示西方对俄罗斯的孤立正在逐步削弱。与此同时，美国对乌克兰的安全承诺依然模糊，“以土地换和平”的设想难以落地。在北约扩张接近尾声、俄罗斯收缩的势力范围重新得到巩固的背景下，一个新的欧洲安全格局正在浮现。

北京对话和观察者网发布中文版如下。

【文/ 周波，翻译/ 王凡非】

特朗普与普京在阿拉斯加举行的峰会，本质上是特朗普的一次“试探气球”，借此探知普京的真实意图。随后在白宫举行的特朗普与泽连斯基以及欧洲领导人的会晤，则是另一次“试探气球”，欧洲想搞清楚特朗普在想什么。两场会晤虽然有用，但成果有限。

首先，普京无疑是最大赢家。在与俄罗斯有历史渊源的美国土地上受到红地毯高规格接待，对普京来说再令人欣慰不过。

如果说“良好的开始是成功的一半”，那么普京顺水推舟邀请特朗普赴莫斯科继续会谈，又向前拱了一步。若特朗普成行，俄罗斯在西方世界的孤立处境就会被逐渐打破。如果特朗普愿意进一步探讨其他领域合作，俄罗斯更是求之不得，这可以使这个被西方制裁的国家逐步恢复为一个“正常国家”。

普京显然深谙恭维之道。他说：“今天，当特朗普总统说，如果当年他是总统，就不会发生战争，我完全确信，这确实会如此。”特朗普很难不点头附和。

已经持续三年半的战争依然没有停火迹象，这很好理解。战场上无法获得的东西，在谈判桌上同样难以拿到。同时，俄罗斯更倾向于讨论和平协议而不是单纯的停火，其背后的逻辑也非常清晰。

既然俄军在战场上进展顺利，但尚未完全控制其认定为俄罗斯领土的四个地区，那么普京就没有理由急于停火。

相比之下，特朗普被夹在普京与泽连斯基之间。二人都对他甜言蜜语，但不作出实质性妥协。特朗普不断夸夸其谈，但是让人记忆深刻的是夸口“24小时解决冲突”。如今特朗普已执政200多天，承诺仍未兑现。他恐怕不得不尽快访问莫斯科，否则受到质疑的将不仅是其个人信誉，也包括美国的国际声誉。

然而，特朗普屡次提到的“土地交换”不过是一场骗局。怎么可能“土地交换”？特朗普的建议本质上就是要求乌克兰以领土换和平。

在白宫会谈中，特朗普声称美国将向乌克兰提供安全保障。但这种保障究竟是什么？北约秘书长马克·吕特已经承认，这其中缺乏清晰界定。

美国特使维特科夫甚至声称，普京对美国为乌克兰提供“第五条款式保护”持开放态度。但这一说法令人怀疑。普京完全清楚，这种安排等同于让乌克兰距离加入北约更近一步。

与此同时，欧洲在阿拉斯加峰会后似乎长舒一口气。欧洲最大的担忧是峰会会演变为“新雅尔塔”，即1945年那场瓜分欧洲的会议。但事实证明，不会再有“第二个雅尔塔”。欧盟将俄乌冲突视为生死存亡的挑战，即便美国选择退场，欧洲也决心在经济与军事上支持乌克兰。

乌克兰总统以及欧洲领袖，在白宫椭圆形办公室与特朗普交换意见。白宫FB

这种战略已经奏效。特朗普已表态将推动泽连斯基与普京的双边会晤，并随后举行三方会谈。

接下来，局势取决于乌克兰。若泽连斯基不向俄罗斯割地——而这在乌克兰宪法下几乎不可能实现——那么乌克兰真的会“战斗到最后一人”吗？俄罗斯人口是乌克兰的三倍以上，其政府能够动员更多人力与武器，并向士兵支付高额薪资与奖金。尽管双方损失惨重，但对比之下，消耗战对莫斯科而言远比对基辅可承受。

无论是俄罗斯还是欧洲，都将这场战争视为生存攸关。俄军去年仅多占乌克兰1%的领土，足以说明战场今后还是僵局。

然而，时间站在俄罗斯一边。俄罗斯的首要目标是确保乌克兰永远无法加入北约，而这看起来是可以实现的。尽管北约仍声称乌克兰的入盟路径“不可逆转”，但迟迟不给出时间表。与此同时，俄罗斯希望削弱乌克兰的军事实力。这也有可能。乌克兰已有近700万人口外逃，加之战争伤亡，乌克兰人口规模已经缩减。

在战争迷雾之中，欧洲新的安全格局正在逐渐显现：北约在欧洲的扩张趋势或将终结，而俄罗斯则可能形成一个更小但更稳固的势力范围。

几十年来，北约对俄罗斯反对其扩张的警告充耳不闻。如今，这是冷战结束以来，俄罗斯首次有机会重新塑造其对北约的战略定位。在普京看来，战争每天带来的人员伤亡，是实现俄罗斯伟大民族浴火重生所必须付出的条件。

因此，俄罗斯将继续拖延时间，任何停火在短期内都不可能实现。与此同时，正如特朗普在七月自己承认的那样：“实话说，我们从普京那里挨了不少屁话。”

（翻页查看英文版）

The Alaska summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was a test balloon for Trump to find out, as he said, what Putin had in mind. The subsequent meeting in the White House between Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders was another test balloon – for Europe – to find out what Trump had in mind. Both were useful yet not really productive.

To start with, Putin has emerged as a clear winner. The red-carpet welcome on American soil with a historical connection with Russia could not have been more gratifying.

If well begun is half done, Putin has capitalised on the occasion by springing an invitation on Trump to travel to Moscow for the next talk. If successful, Russia’s isolation in the West would be gradually lifted. Even better if Trump wants to talk about anything else that could help to turn the West-sanctioned country into a normal one.

And Putin most certainly knows how to flatter. As he said: “Today, when President Trump [said] that if he was the president back then, there would be no war. And I’m quite sure that it would indeed be so.” How can Trump not nod to this?

It is easy to understand why the war, which has gone on for 3½ years, shows no sign of ending soon. What one cannot achieve on the battlefield can hardly be gained at the negotiation table. It is also easy to understand why Russia wants to talk about a peace agreement rather than a ceasefire.

Why would Russia hurry to put down arms when it is making significant progress on the battlefield and has yet to fully control the four regions it regards as its territory?

In contrast, Trump is now sandwiched between Putin and Zelensky. Both have praised him but neither has moved much by way of compromise. Notable among Trump’s many promises is his bragging about solving the conflict in 24 hours – it is now more than 200 days into his presidency. He will probably have to go to Moscow soon. If he doesn’t, it’s not only his credibility, but also America’s clout, that will be in doubt.

The “land swap” Trump repeatedly mentions is a hoax.How can a land swap happen at all? Trump’s suggestion is essentially for Ukraine to sacrifice its land in exchange for peace.

At the White House talks, Trump said America was committed to providing security guarantees for the Ukrainians. But what exactly are they? Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte has admitted there was a lack of clarity.

US envoy Steve Witkoff claimed Putin had signalled openness to the United States offering Ukraine Article 5-style protection – Article 5 is Nato’s collective defence mandate. I doubt that. Putin would know it risks moving Ukraine one step closer to joining the transatlantic security alliance.

Europe, meanwhile, can sigh with relief after the Alaska summit, it seems. Its worst fear was that the summit would turn out to be another Yalta conference – the 1945 meeting where world leaders met to divide up Europe. But there won’t be a second Yalta. Europe believes the Ukraine war is an existential challenge. It is determined to help Ukraine economically and militarily even if the US decides to walk out.

Such a strategy has worked. Trump has said he would initiate a meeting between Zelensky and Putin, followed by a trilateral meeting with him.

The ball is now in Ukraine’s court. If Zelensky does not cede territory to Russia – a challenging act given Ukraine’s constitution – will Ukraine really fight till the last man? Russia’s population is more than three times bigger than Ukraine’s. The Russian government has mobilised more men and arms than Ukraine has. It has paid huge salaries and bonuses to Russian soldiers. In spite of the heavy losses on both sides, the war of attrition is more affordable for Moscow than for Kyiv.

Both Russia and Europe view the war as existential. That Russia was only able to conquer 1 per cent more of territory in Ukraine last year tells of the battlefield stalemate to come.

But time is on Russia’s side. It wants to make sure Ukraine never gains Nato membership. This looks achievable. Although Nato still holds that Ukraine’s path of entry is irreversible, it won’t provide a timeline. Russia also wants to make sure Ukraine’s military is downsized. This may be. Thanks to the exodus of almost 7 million people and war casualties, Ukraine’s population has already shrunk.

Amid the fog of war, a new European security landscape is starting to appear on the horizon. That is, the ending of Nato’s expansion in Europe and the coming of a much smaller yet consolidated sphere of influence for Russia.

For decades, Russia’s warnings against Nato’s expansion fell on deaf ears. Now, for the first time since the Cold War, Russia can reshape its strategic positioning vis-a-vis Nato. For Putin, the daily casualties brought about by the war are a necessary condition for the rebirth of a great nation.

So Russia will buy time and any ceasefire will not be confirmed soon. Meanwhile, as Trump himself acknowledged back in July: “We get a lot of b******t thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth.”

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