“外媒论中国”第29期｜中印关系，会有大变局吗？_风闻

1

中印或许正在走向更加协调的外交政策

**原标题：**China and India May Be Moving Toward a More Coordinated Foreign Policy

**发布机构：**外交政策（Foreign Policy）

关键词：中印关系；上合组织峰会；中俄印三边关系

中文

中印关系近期呈现回暖态势。印度总理莫迪已抵达天津，开启2018年后的首次访华之旅，并与中国国家领导人举行会晤。《外交政策》杂志近期刊发题为《中印或许正在走向更加协调的外交政策》的文章指出，莫迪此次访华显示出两国在务实与相互尊重的基础上重塑外交关系的坚定意愿。

2016年9月4日，在中国杭州召开的二十国领导人峰会上，中印领导人握手致意（图源：Getty Images）

中印双方的外交政策均以坚持战略自主为根本考量。长期以来，中方持续采取有效举措积极推动缓和双边局势，包括恢复两国直航航班、简化签证材料以及重启边境谈判。与此同时，面对美方在关税等对外政策上的虚伪与敌意，印度的不满情绪不断加深，亦愈发认识到依附于日渐衰落的西方体系难以带来可靠的发展前景，唯有加强与中国的合作，才能更好维护本国的战略自主与长远利益。

此外，凭借中国的制造业优势、印度在服务业的潜力以及俄罗斯的能源与资源禀赋，中俄印三边合作体制的恢复与发展有望在相关领域逐步削弱西方的主导地位。事实表明，中印两国并非必然陷入长期对立的竞争者，而是完全有潜力协同并进、共同成为多极化世界体系中的两支关键力量。

Short Summary

China-India relationship sees reset momentum as Modi set to make his first China visit after 2018 to meet Chinese President at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit. An article released by Foreign Policy titled “China and India May Be Moving Toward a More Coordinated Foreign Policy” recently opined that this visit indicates both nations’ resolve to reset relations on the foundation of pragmatism and mutual respect.

Both nations’ foreign policy are driven by commitments to strategic autonomy. China has been consistently taken proactive steps to ease tensions such as resuming direct flights, easing visa restrictions, and reviving border negotiation. India, on the other hand, facing growing disenchantment with Washington’s hypocrisy and hostility, has little choice but to recognise the advantages of deeper cooperation with China rather than aligning with a declining Western order.

With China’s manufacturing strength, India’s service sector, and Russia’s resources, the revival of the Russia-India-China trilateral framework can gradually erode Western dominance in due fields. Far from being rivals locked in perpetual suspicion, China and India have the potential to act as twin pillars of a multipolar system.

2

中国能让巴基斯坦和塔利班重归于好吗？

**原标题：**Can China make Pakistan and the Taliban friends again?

发布机构：半岛电视台（AL JAZEERA）

**关键词：**中阿巴三方外长对话

中文

2025年8月20日，巴基斯坦、阿富汗和中国三国外交部长在喀布尔举行了三方会议。这是中国外长王毅、巴基斯坦财政部长伊斯哈克·达尔与阿富汗塔利班领导人阿米尔·汗·穆塔基自五月以来的第二次会晤。半岛电视台发布的评论文章《中国能让巴基斯坦和塔利班重归于好吗？》指出，中国斡旋巴基斯坦与阿富汗之间的和平，恰恰反映出它对自身利益安全，包括对中巴经济走廊发展的考虑。

地区格局持续变动。巴基斯坦加强了与美国的联系，中国则重启与印度的接触，印度也在继续深化与阿富汗临时政府的关系，而巴基斯坦与阿富汗则龃龉不断。在这种情况下，中国作为邻国，担任调解者既是出于推进中巴经济走廊的建设，更是致力于营造和平发展的周边环境、促进共同发展。此外，巴基斯坦内部安全形势的改善对中国至关重要，这也是中国希望推动阿巴双边关系改善的动力。

8月20日，中阿巴外长在阿富汗喀布尔举行三方会谈（图源：巴基斯坦外交部）

巴基斯坦国内形势带来了严峻的安全挑战。自2021年8月塔利班执政以来，巴基斯坦暴力事件激增。如果不解决严重的安全问题，中巴经济走廊难以发挥潜力。中国启动三边机制，既能够带来政治影响力和经济红利，也能在反恐领域多边合作提供外交支持。一名巴基斯坦外交官表示，中国的“一带一路”及其相关项目已经在东南亚和中亚提升了影响力，完全有能力担任阿巴之间调解人和担保者的角色，现在的问题就在于中国是否愿意这样做。

Short Summary

On 20 August 2025, the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and China convened a trilateral meeting in Kabul. It was the second encounter since May among China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Pakistan’s Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, and the Taliban’s Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. An opinion  published by Al Jazeera titled “Can China make Pakistan and the Taliban friends again?” points out that Beijing’s attempt to mediate between Islamabad and Kabul mirrors its heightened concern for the security of its own interests, notably the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The regional dynamics is shifting. Pakistan has strengthened ties with the United States, while Beijing has resumed engagement with India, Pakistan’s key competitor for regional influence. India has also continued to deepen ties with the Afghan interim government, and frictions between Pakistan and Afghanistan persist. Against this backdrop, China, as a common neighbor, is stepping in as a mediator both to advance CPEC and to foster an environment conducive to shared development.

CPEC itself is under strain. Launched in 2015 and once hailed by Pakistani leaders as a game-changer, the corridor has seen its momentum slow in recent years. Within Pakistan, the security of Chinese infrastructure and personnel has been repeatedly threatened, casting a long shadow over future investment. Improved internal security in Pakistan is therefore vital for China, providing a key impetus for Beijing to encourage better Afghan-Pakistani relations.

Pakistan’s domestic landscape presents acute security challenges. Since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, violence in Pakistan has surged. Unless these security issues are addressed, CPEC’s potential will remain unrealized. By activating a trilateral mechanism, China can leverage its political influence and economic dividends while offering diplomatic support for multilateral counter-terrorism cooperation. Yet, for now, tangible results remain limited, and some scholars advise caution regarding Beijing’s long-term leverage. A senior Pakistani diplomat counters that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its associated projects have already expanded China’s influence in Southeast and Central Asia; China, he argues, is fully capable of acting as mediator and guarantor between Afghanistan and Pakistan—the real question is whether Beijing is willing to do so.

3

中印关系重启？

**原标题：**A China-India Reset?

**发布机构：**对外关系委员会（Council on Foreign Relations）

关键词：中印关系

中文

2025年8月31日，印度总理莫迪与中国国家领导人在天津举行的上海合作组织（SCO）峰会期间会晤。这是两国领导人六年来首次会面。之前则有中国外长王毅访印，并与印度外长苏杰生及国家安全顾问多瓦尔就双边关系“下一步”进行磋商之后。对外关系委员会发布的评论文章《中印关系重启？》指出，此次会面正值印美关系因美国对印度商品加征新关税而出现紧张之际，引发外界对印度外交走向的关注。

当地时间2025年8月18日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅在新德里同印度外长苏杰生举行会谈（图源：中国外交部）

莫迪与中国国家领导人虽然在2024年俄罗斯金砖峰会期间有过短暂互动，但自2019年以来，双方尚未互访。边界争议仍是最棘手的问题。近期双方提出“早期收获”方案，即先解决较容易达成共识的地段，为未来改善两国关系奠定基础。

除边界外，经贸关系将是另一重点。中国依然是印度最重要的贸易伙伴之一，但印度长期存在巨额逆差。此外，两国在2020年冲突后中断的直航航班即将恢复，预计会推动商务与民间往来。跨境河流合作，特别是涉及中国在雅鲁藏布江上建设水坝的问题，也将进入议程。

外界普遍认为，此次峰会可能会宣布一些成果，例如放宽签证限制或解除对中国应用的禁令，以显示关系重启的势头。在更广泛的地缘政治背景下，此次会晤显得意义非凡。美国近期对印度商品加征25%关税，并因印度购买俄罗斯石油再追加25%惩罚性关税，引发印度强烈不满。这种差别化对待加剧了新德里的战略疑虑，也促使其寻求更为多元的外交布局。中印若在金砖机制、亚投行等多边平台加强合作，将对亚洲力量格局及美印关系的未来走向产生深远影响。

Short Summary

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President  are set to meet on August 31, 2025, during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin. This marks the first visit of either leader to the other’s country in six years and follows Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent trip to New Delhi, where he held talks with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. A commentary article titled “A China-India Reset?” published by Council onForeign Relations points out that their engagement comes at a sensitive moment where relations between India and the United States have been strained by new U.S. tariffs on Indian goods, fueling speculation that India might recalibrate its foreign policy approach.

The timing of this meeting is especially significant given the turbulent backdrop. The leaders of China and India last had a substantive encounter at the 2024 BRICS summit in Russia, but the absence of reciprocal visits since 2019 reflects the tension in bilateral ties. The border dispute remains central to their dialogue. Recent discussions point toward an “early harvest” strategy—identifying less contentious areas to settle first while postponing thornier disputes.

Beyond the border, economic relations will be a focal point. China remains one of India’s top trading partners, though New Delhi continues to run a sizeable trade deficit. At the same time, direct flights between the two countries are set to resume after being suspended since the pandemic and the 2020 clashes, opening space for greater business and people-to-people ties. Water issues, particularly surrounding China’s dam projects on the Brahmaputra River, and Pakistan’s role in regional stability will also feature prominently on the agenda. 

Despite the breadth of issues, few anticipate major breakthroughs. Instead, modest steps—such as lifting bans on Chinese apps like TikTok or easing visa restrictions—may signal a gradual thaw. The broader geopolitical context gives the meeting heightened weight: Washington’s imposition of dual tariffs on India, including penalties for its Russian oil imports, has generated sharp resentment in New Delhi. Some observers suggest this could push India to diversify its partnerships, possibly aligning more closely with China on multilateral platforms like BRICS and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Whether this summit represents a true “reset” remains uncertain, but it clearly carries significant implications for the balance of power in Asia and the trajectory of U.S.-India relations.

4

印度总理莫迪七年来首次访华

**原标题：**India’s Modi to meet on first China trip in seven years as US tariffs bite

发布机构：卫报**（The Guardian）**

关键词：中美关系、中印关系、贸易、美印关系

中文

《卫报》发表的文章《印度总理莫迪七年来首次访华，将与中国领导人和普京会面，美方关税压力加剧》指出，印度总理莫迪在美印关系紧张之际，七年来首次访问中国，出席上海合作组织峰会，与中国领导人和普京同场。

美国近期决定将对印出口关税提高到50%，涉及价值602亿美元的商品，重创印度最大的出口市场，也加深了印度对华盛顿的不信任。在这种背景下，莫迪出现在中国具有重要的象征意义。对北京而言，这意味着一个难得的外交窗口：就在美印关系陷入困境之时，中印关系在经历2020年边境冲突后正逐步回稳。

有印度出口商表示，受美国政府关税措施影响，很多美国客户取消了订单（图源：央视新闻）

贸易和投资预计将成为中印领导人会谈的重点，尽管双方仍存在深层次的互不信任和未解决的边境争议。分析人士认为，中国可能借机推动合作，利用印美关系裂痕，把印度在经贸、科技和互联互通等领域拉得更近。

俄罗斯同样受益，可以进一步巩固其与印度在能源和防务领域的传统合作。而印度也在谨慎推进多元化。莫迪在抵达中国前，已从日本争取到10万亿日元（约680亿美元）的投资承诺，并启动面向40个国家的出口推广计划，以减轻对美国的依赖。

不过，莫迪出席上合峰会，与多国领导人同台，释放的信号是：中国正逐渐成为印度平衡外交战略中的核心部分。尽管新德里强调并不打算放弃与美国的关系，但此次峰会凸显出，在全球贸易与地缘政治格局变化之下，中印正被推向更务实的互动。

Short Summary

The article published by the Guardian discusses that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting China for the first time in seven years to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit with the leaders of China and Russia, at a moment when US-India relations are under severe strain.

The US decision to double tariffs on Indian exports to 50% has hit $60.2 billion worth of goods, badly damaging India’s largest export market and fueling mistrust toward Washington. Against this backdrop, Modi’s presence in China carries strong symbolic weight. For Beijing, it highlights a rare diplomatic opening: India-US ties are faltering just as China-India relations cautiously stabilize after the 2020 border clash.

Trade and investment are expected to top the China-India agenda, as both sides seek a “new equilibrium” despite deep mistrust and unresolved frontier disputes. Analysts suggest China sees opportunity in India’s rift with Washington, potentially using cooperation to draw Delhi closer in areas of commerce, technology, and connectivity.

Russia also stands to benefit, reinforcing its traditional energy and defense ties with India. Yet India is careful to diversify partnerships. Before arriving in China, Modi secured a ¥10 trillion ($68bn) Japanese investment pledge and launched an export drive across 40 countries to reduce reliance on the US.

Still, Modi’s appearance at the SCO signals that China is becoming a more central part in India’s balancing strategy. While Delhi insists it does not seek to abandon the US, the summit underscores how shifts in global trade and geopolitics are nudging India and China toward pragmatic engagement.

05

中印关系缓和能否重塑贸易格局

**原标题：**Can the new India-China bonhomie reshape trade and hurt the US in Asia?

发布机构：半岛电视台**（Al Jazeera）**

**关键词：**中印关系

中文

半岛电视台发布的评论文章《中印关系缓和能否重塑贸易格局》分析了中印关系与美国“印太战略”的关系。2020年特朗普政府时期，美印关系升温，影响中印了双边经贸与人文交流；与此同时，印度倒向美国主导的 “印太战略”，加入四方安全对话，增加了地区地缘政治博弈的复杂性。

如今，受特朗普政府对印加征关税、亲近巴基斯坦及地缘格局变化影响，中印关系趋缓，双方恢复直航、简化签证、推进边境贸易便利化，探讨边境问题 “早期收获” 方案，印度总理莫迪也将出席上合组织天津峰会。此外，中印关系缓和将影响美印关系及 “四方安全对话”（Quad），也为亚洲贸易格局调整带来可能，但双方合作仍存竞争与供应链风险等局限。

2012年10月21日，在印度阿鲁纳恰尔邦的布姆拉中印边境，一名印度女孩手持印度国旗摆姿势拍照**（图源：美联社）**

当前中印关系缓和，对中国而言机遇显著。一是经贸层面，中国向印度开放市场、扩大印度商品准入，可缓解印度对华贸易逆差，提升双边贸易规模，同时助力中国企业拓展印度市场，减少美国关税对中国外贸的间接冲击；二是战略层面，中印关系改善能削弱美国 “印太战略” 根基，降低印度在“四方安全对话”中对中国的对抗性，提升中国在全球治理中的话语权；三是边境安全层面，双方关系稳定有利于减少边境冲突风险，为中国西南地区发展营造了良好外部环境。

未来，中印关系对中国的影响呈双向性。潜力方面，若双方深化供应链合作、推进 “亚洲主导” 贸易 bloc 建设，将助力中国构建更自主的贸易网络，推动 “一带一路” 倡议在南亚的落地，增强中国在亚太经济圈的核心地位；风险方面，中印在战略自主、供应链去依赖化等问题上仍存分歧，印度可能在中美之间摇摆，若美印关系回暖，或对中印合作产生冲击。但总体而言，中印关系稳定发展符合中国利益，有望为中国带来更多战略与经济收益。

Short Summary

The article published by Al Jazeera notes that, during the Trump administration in 2020, U.S.-India relations warmed up, while China-India relations were tense due to border issues and other factors. Now, affected by the Trump administration’s imposition of additional tariffs on India, its friendly stance towards Pakistan, and changes in the geopolitical pattern, China-India relations have eased. The two sides have resumed direct flights, simplified visa procedures, promoted border trade facilitation, discussed an “early harvest” plan for border issues, and Modi will attend the SCO Tianjin Summit. At the same time, the relaxation of China-India relations has impacted U.S.-India relations and the “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue” (Quad). However, there are still limitations such as competition and supply chain risks in bilateral cooperation.

In the past few years, China-India relations were tense. Especially after the Galwan clashes, the border standoff escalated, posing pressure on China’s southwest border security and affecting bilateral economic, trade and people-to-people exchanges. At the same time, India leaned towards the U.S.-led “Indo-Pacific Strategy” and joined the Quad, which posed challenges to China’s strategic environment in the Asia-Pacific region and increased the complexity of geopolitical games in the region.

At present, the relaxation of China-India relations brings significant opportunities to China. Firstly, in terms of economy and trade, China’s opening up of its market to India and expansion of access for Indian goods can ease India’s trade deficit with China, increase the scale of bilateral trade, and at the same time help Chinese enterprises expand into the Indian market and reduce the indirect impact of U.S. tariffs on China’s foreign trade. Secondly, in the strategic aspect, the improvement of China-India relations can weaken the foundation of the U.S. “Indo-Pacific Strategy”,  ease China’s strategic pressure in the Asia-Pacific region, and enhance China’s voice in global governance. Thirdly, in terms of border security, the stable border situation between the two sides reduces the risk of border conflicts and creates a good external environment for the development of China’s southwest region.

In the future, the impact of China-India relations on China is two-way. In terms of potential, if the two sides deepen supply chain cooperation and promote the construction of “Asia-led” trade blocs, it will help China build a more independent trade network, promote the implementation of the “Belt and Road” Initiative in South Asia, and enhance China’s core position in the Asia-Pacific economic circle. In terms of risks, there are still differences between China and India on issues such as strategic autonomy and supply chain de-dependence. India may waver between China and the United States. If U.S.-India relations warm up, it may have an impact on China-India cooperation. However, in general, the stable development of China-India relations is in line with China’s interests and is expected to bring more strategic and economic benefits to China.