【科技】中国如何在电池和电动汽车制造方面做得如此出色？_风闻

评论翻译

@martian9999

a a citizen of the world, I love this situation. Cheaper batteries = quicker decarbonization of transport and industry. The thing holding up wind and solar is their intermittancy. Batteries are a big part of the solution, but they need to be cheap, and we need them in massive amounts.

作为一名世界公民，我非常喜欢这种局面，更便宜的电池意味着交通和工业的更快脱碳。风能和太阳能的瓶颈在于它们的间歇性，电池是解决方案的重要组成部分，但它们需要便宜，而且我们需要大量的电池。0

@zeytelaloi

I was recently in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia in East Africa. I saw truck-loads of small BYDs being brought in. Taxis are switching over to them and other small EVs like the Wuling. The elites are driving Chinese-made VWs (like the one shown there for leasing), and Japanese EVs as well. A guy I met is opening up a factory in a smaller Ethiopian city to produce electric tuktuks.

Ethiopia produces more electricity than it uses (having built a massive dam), due to bad power distribution infrastructure. As they improve it, reducing power outages, the ICEs will be driven out. Many poor countries struggle with trade imbalances, being forced to import so many things, and as a result they have weak currencies. Having to import fossil fuels is a big pain.

我最近在东非埃塞俄比亚的首都亚的斯亚贝巴，我看到大量小型比亚迪汽车被运进来。出租车正在转向这些车以及其他小型电动车，比如五菱。精英们开着中国制造的大众汽车（比如视频中展示的租赁车）以及日本电动车。我遇到的一个家伙正在埃塞俄比亚的一个小城市开设工厂，生产电动三轮车。

埃塞俄比亚的发电量超过了其使用量（因为建了一座大型水坝），但由于电力分配基础设施不佳，电力供应不稳定。随着他们改善基础设施，减少停电，内燃机车将被淘汰。许多贫穷国家面临贸易不平衡问题，被迫进口大量商品，导致货币疲软。进口化石燃料是一个巨大的负担。0

@passby8070

That’s a good observation, counter to popular beliefs, I think poorer countries will electrify first due to reliant on oil import, which is a massive risk.

这是一个很好的观察，与普遍看法相反，我认为贫穷国家会首先实现电气化，因为它们依赖石油进口，这是一个巨大的风险。0

@FabioCapela

Keep in mind that Ethiopia did a very bold move, in that it banned imports of ICE cars; it also has a very bad fuel distribution infrastructure — refueling lines can take hours — and with the ban on ICE cars no further improvement to fuel distribution is expected.

In large part the move was done to solve their issue with fuel imports (which are already a large, and until the ban growing, part of their imports).

请记住，埃塞俄比亚采取了一个非常大胆的举措，即禁止进口内燃机汽车；该国的燃料分配基础设施也非常糟糕——加油排队可能需要几个小时——而且随着内燃机汽车的禁令，预计燃料分配不会进一步改善。

这一举措在很大程度上是为了解决他们的燃料进口问题（燃料进口已经是他们进口的重要组成部分，并且在禁令之前还在增长）。0

@nakdickson

Chinese smartphone makers are the reason smartphones became affordable. I believe they’ll do the same with the car market.

中国智能手机制造商是智能手机变得便宜的原因，我相信他们会在汽车市场做同样的事情。0

@dwc1964

9:17 - this right here is something I’ve been saying for over a decade:

If you’re going to spend public money to create a market for EVs in order to promote their development, the best way to start is not to provide “incentives” to individual consumers, but to just buy the vehicles directly, replacing every type of vehicle with an internal combustion/diesel engine that any government agency has with an electric model over time. This approach has multiple advantages over the personal market-based approach:

(1) it converts public money into public assets - things that the public owns and are used for publicly-directed purposes;

(2) it replaces things we were going to have to replace anyway, on a regular schedule;

(3) it directs R&D towards practicality and efficiency rather than the whiz-bang performance metrics that impress early-adopter techbros;

(4) it doesn’t encourage the use of the private automobile as the primary mode of transportation, but rather goes the other way with electrified mass transit; and

(5) several others but I’ll leave it there.

After that, consumer incentives for EVs (and disincentives against combustion engines) can work towards shifting the private consumer market, with points (3) and (4) in mind. This is why, it seems to me, there are so many really good, inexpensive (before incentives), small Chinese EVs, while the North American market is oversized, overpowered, overpriced “performance” cars and big-assed SUVs and pickup trucks.

If BYD were allowed to compete in the North American market on a free-market basis, it would hit the North American automakers harder than the Japanese automakers did in the 1970s. And just like back then, it will have been a downfall of their own making.

9:17 - 这是我十多年来一直在说的：

如果你打算用公共资金为电动汽车创造一个市场以促进其发展，最好的开始方式不是向个人消费者提供“激励”，而是直接购买这些车辆，逐步将政府机构拥有的所有内燃机/柴油发动机车辆替换为电动车型。这种方法比基于个人市场的方法有多个优势：

（1）它将公共资金转化为公共资产——公众拥有并用于公共目的的东西；

（2）它按计划替换我们无论如何都需要替换的东西；

（3）它将研发方向引导到实用性和效率上，而不是那些让早期采用者技术迷们印象深刻的炫酷性能指标；

（4）它不鼓励将私人汽车作为主要交通方式，而是转向电气化的大众交通；

（5）还有其他一些优势，但我就不一一列举了。

之后，针对电动汽车的消费者激励（以及对内燃机汽车的抑制措施）可以在考虑第（3）和第（4）点的情况下，推动私人消费市场的转变。这就是为什么在我看来，中国有这么多真正好、便宜（在激励之前）、小型电动汽车，而北美市场则是超大、超强、超贵的“性能”汽车和大屁股SUV和皮卡。

如果比亚迪被允许在北美市场自由竞争，它将比20世纪70年代的日本汽车制造商对北美汽车制造商造成更大的冲击。就像那时一样，这将是他们自己造成的衰落。0

BYD is building a manufacturing facility in Brazil, the cars produced there won’t be facing the same tariffs as the ones imported from overseas and will likely flood brazil’s market with BYD cars when operating at full capacity. an interesting fact about this new facility is that its plant was acquired from Ford. the north american company closed all facilities in brazil between 2019 and 2021. you can see perfectly the trend here.

比亚迪正在巴西建设一个制造工厂，那里生产的汽车不会面临与从海外进口的汽车相同的关税，并且在满负荷生产时可能会用比亚迪汽车淹没巴西市场。关于这个新工厂的一个有趣事实是，它的工厂是从福特收购的。这家北美公司在2019年至2021年间关闭了在巴西的所有工厂。你可以清楚地看到这里的趋势。0

@3nimac

Reminds me of Kodak who invented the digital camera but didn’t pursue it to protect its film business but then they got stomped anyway. Will happen with legacy car makers.

这让我想起了柯达，他们发明了数码相机，但没有继续发展以保护其胶片业务，最终他们还是被淘汰了。传统汽车制造商也会发生同样的事情。0

@bearstar_bearson4350

Yep! They’re aware of it though. I have worked with a couple on a consulting basis. The issue for them this time is that a lot of them didn’t realise the major threat caused by Chinese EVs before it was basically to late. Also it’s just veeeeery difficult to completely change the direction of a 100 year old company

是的！不过他们也意识到了这一点。我曾以咨询的身份与其中几家公司合作。这次的问题是许多公司在意识到中国电动汽车带来的重大威胁时已经为时已晚。而且，彻底改变一家百年老公司的方向非常非常困难。0

@rudalsxv

As a consumer, this is a good news. Don’t buy into doom and gloom from the incumbent capital owners.

They just don’t want competition, globalization is what they wanted and welcomed it when it benefitted them.

Don’t buy into their manipulation.

作为一名消费者，这是个好消息。不要被现有资本所有者的悲观情绪所影响。

他们只是不想要竞争，全球化是他们想要的，并且在有利于他们时欢迎它。

不要被他们的操纵所迷惑。