（中英文）欧洲股神安东尼・波顿：最佳的投资机会往往让人感到不安（上篇）_风闻

编译 何艳

编辑 庄泽

最近，传奇投资人安东尼·波顿（Anthony Bolton）受挪威银行投资管理公司CEO尼古拉·坦根（Nicolai Tangen）邀请进行了一场对话。

安东尼·波顿1950年生于英国，是英国最著名的基金经理和投资人之一，被誉为“欧洲股神”、“欧洲的彼得•林奇”“逆向投资大师”。他从1979年12月至2007年12月担任富达富达特殊机会基金(Fidelity Special Situations)经理人，在管理该基金的28年间，实现年均复合回报19.5％，累积报酬率约达147倍，即如果最初投入1000英镑那么28年后将拥有14.7万英镑财富。

安东尼一度退休，却因为看好中国股市而在2010年4月重出江湖，并举家搬迁至香港定居。2010年11月22日在香港办公室接受媒体采访时，他曾信心满满地表示，货币紧缩不影响他在中国的布局，中国股市的投资机会俯拾皆是！

在此次与尼古拉·坦根的对话中，这位“逆向投资大师”再次表达了对中国市场的看好。他表示，“目前全球几乎所有市场都接近历史高位，而中国市场却处于相对低位，所以从反向投资的角度来看，中国市场是个不错的选择”。

“最近几周，我们也看到人工智能的发展趋势开始向中国市场蔓延。所以我认为，可以考虑从投资美国科技股转向投资中国科技股。”

“我认为目前中国股市正处于新一轮牛市的初期”。

此外，他还表达了自己对加密货币、黄金等的看法。他认为，加密货币是市场过热的一个信号。他表示，“如果你在寻找一个估值过高且存在泡沫的市场，那么加密货币就是一个典型代表。”他认为，短期投资黄金，也并非一个好的选择。

《大道财经》将这场对话进行了全文翻译，并分享给大家。

如果我持有的股票与大多数人相同 我总会感到不安

**Nicolai Tangen：**Hi, everybody. Today we are in really good company because I’m here with Anthony Bolton. And Anthony Bolton, he is in a way, in my mind，the father of contrary investing. You know, the best person I know to do the opposite of everybody else and my have you made a lot of money for Fidelity over the years doing that. So a warm welcome, Connie.

**尼古拉・坦根：**大家好！今天我非常荣幸能与安东尼・波顿一同交流。在我心中，安东尼·波顿堪称反向投资领域的传奇人物。据我所知，他最擅长反其道而行之，多年来，他凭借这种独特的投资策略，为富达投资集团创造了巨额财富。让我们热烈欢迎他，安东尼！

**Anthony Bolton：**Thank you, Nicolas. Lovely to be here with you. I think because very few people are doing it. But it’s so it’s almost by definition. And the trouble is in the stock market, if you do what everyone else is doing, it will work for a while. But the more people who get on the bandwagon, eventually it bursts. And I think that’s why it’s important. I always, my view of investing, the popularity is risk and conversely unpopularity is opportunity. I’m not saying everything that’s unpopular therefore is an opportunity. But I just early on, I wanted to look where other people weren’t looking. And I always felt uncomfortable if I owned something that everyone else owned. Not many people deal that way. That’s the point. That’s why I think it works.

**安东尼・波顿：**谢谢你，尼古拉。很高兴能与你相聚于此。我认为，反向投资之所以有效，是因为真正践行的人寥寥无几，这几乎是一种必然。在股票市场中，如果盲目跟风，短期内或许能有所收益，但随着跟风者越来越多，最终市场泡沫必然破裂。这就是我认为反向投资至关重要的原因。

我一直坚信，在投资领域，热门意味着风险，而冷门则蕴藏着机会。当然，我并非说所有冷门投资标的都值得关注，但我很早就开始关注那些被大众忽视的领域。如果我持有的股票与大多数人相同，我总会感到不安。很少有人会采用这种投资方式，而这正是反向投资的关键所在，也是其成功的秘诀。

反向投资者要乐于与众不同

**Nicolai Tangen：**But, so when, so when you think about being contrary. I mean, what is it, what does it entail?

**尼古拉・坦根：**那么，当你进行反向投资时，具体要如何操作呢？这其中的关键要点是什么？

**Anthony Bolton：**I think it entails, I think it’s something in the personality that you feel comfortable about being different. I think most people are. They like the comfort of the crowd. They like to be reinforced. They like the people around them to be telling them, you know, what you’re doing is good. It’s what I’m doing and what everyone’s doing. So I think there’s something in the makeup of a contrarian that is really important. And it’s very difficult to put my fingers on it because often my colleagues of Fidelity say, you know, how can I become a contrarian? And I think you need to start. I’m not sure. I don’t think everyone can do it, put it that way. So there has to be something inside one’s finger on it, but it’s the ability to back your own convictions, to be unemotional and to be patient, I think is part of it because often your, you’re gonna have to wait a bit.

**安东尼・波顿：**我觉得这与个人性格特质密切相关。反向投资者要乐于与众不同。大多数人都喜欢随波逐流，他们在群体中寻求安全感，渴望得到他人的认可，喜欢听到周围人说 “你做得对，大家都这么做”。所以，我认为反向投资者的性格构成中，有某种极为重要的特质。但这种特质很难确切描述，富达的同事们常常问我：“我怎样才能成为一名反向投资者呢？” 我觉得这得从自身出发去探寻，但不得不说，并非所有人都具备这样的能力。

这么说吧，内心必须有一种坚定的力量，要能够坚守自己的信念，保持冷静、理性，同时还得具备耐心，因为在很多情况下，你需要耐心等待机会的降临。

反向投资决策上需要特立独行但并不意味着没有朋友

**Nicolai Tangen：**Do you have any friends?

**尼古拉・坦根：**你有朋友吗？

**Anthony Bolton：**Like, do you have some friends?Thank goodness.

**安东尼・波顿：**你是指我有没有朋友吗？谢天谢地，我当然有。

**Nicolai Tangen：**What I mean is it if you crave for people to like you, you’re probably not a good contrary, right?

**尼古拉・坦根：**我的意思是，如果一个人渴望被众人喜爱，那他可能不太适合从事反向投资，你认同这种观点吗？

**Anthony Bolton：**Yes. I don’t know. I don’t think likeness and dislikeness comes into it. I mean, that’s more to do with people’s characteristics. But it’s, you know, what people say it’s lonely being a contrarian, which is slightly different. It doesn’t mean that you don’t have friends, but you’re sort of out on a limb and you know how it is. Investment, I often found the best opportunities were the uncomfortable ones. By the time it was comfortable, it was late and it would still might be alright for a while. But you have to be prepared. To be uncomfortable means that other people are you. You’re doing something that other people and several people probably tell you it’s wrong. I think funny enough, I think one of your recent people you were talking to said he gave a medical example of. you know, somebody who in, who made a big stride in cancer research. And they said at the time the guy was terribly unpopular because he was going against conventional wisdom. So you have to be somebody who’s happy, I think, to go against the conventional wisdom at times, not all the time, but at times.

**安东尼・波顿：**嗯，我不太确定。我认为，个人的受欢迎程度与是否适合反向投资并没有直接关联，这更多地取决于个人的性格特点。

人们常说，做反向投资的人往往很孤独，这确实有一定道理。但这并不意味着你没有朋友，而是说你在投资决策上需要特立独行，并且要清楚自己在做什么。在投资领域，我发现那些最佳的投资机会往往让人感到不安。等到投资变得“舒适”时，往往已经错过了最佳时机，虽然可能还能在一段时间内获得收益，但你必须提前做好充分准备。

选择做让别人感到困惑的投资决策，意味着很多人可能会告诉你，你做错了。有意思的是，我记得你之前采访过的一个人曾举过一个医学领域的例子，有个人在癌症研究方面取得了重大突破，但在当时，由于他的研究思路与传统观念相悖，遭到了众人的排斥。所以我认为，有时候你需要有勇气挑战传统观念，当然，并非任何时候都要如此。

**Nicolai Tangen：**Now, an emotional. What are you?

**尼古拉・坦根：**说到情绪管理，你是怎样的呢？

**Anthony Bolton：**An emotional I am an emotional. I think like.

**安东尼・波顿：**情绪方面，我想想……

**Nicolai Tangen：**Are you on the spectrum, you think?

**尼古拉・坦根：**你觉得自己在情绪管理上属于什么水平呢？

**Anthony Bolton：**I don’t think I’m extremely unemotional, but I am. I can take success and failure pretty much the same. That’s really important for investors. Don’t let the successes get to your head because everyone has successes, but conversely, everyone will go through a bad phase. And don’t let the bad time get you. That’s the bit that gets to most people. So how would I describe it? I think if you get very worked up about investments. I think in general that is bad in this business. You know, you have to stand, you have to take yourself sort of somewhat out of the situation and look down, but you spend all your life looking at your portfolio. meeting companies, thinking about these things.

**安东尼・波顿：**我觉得我并非那种极度冷静的人，但面对成功和失败，我能够保持相对平和的心态，这对于投资者来说至关重要。不要因为一时的成功而沾沾自喜，因为每个人都会有成功的时刻；同样，每个人也都会经历投资的低谷期，不要让失败影响自己的判断和决策，然而，大多数人往往很难做到这一点。该怎么形容呢？我认为，如果在投资过程中过于情绪化，通常来说，这对投资事业是不利的。

你要学会让自己置身于投资情境之外，以一种旁观者的视角去审视局势。毕竟，你花费大量时间研究投资组合、与企业交流、思考各种投资问题。

**Nicolai Tangen：**How can you be unemotional about what is your life?

**尼古拉・坦根：**投资几乎是你生活的全部，你是如何做到不被情绪左右的呢？

**Anthony Bolton：**I think unemotional, committed, you know, involved. It’s, you know, it’s the most fascinating business to be in, to meet all these companies, to be in touch with all the great trends in the world. But it’s at times don’t underestimate the market’s ability to discount. I think the mistake so many people do, they often talk about what’s the outlook? You know, is it, is the outlook bright? Is the outlook poor? But the key thing is what outlook is discounted in the stock market at the moment? It’s not the outlook, it’s how your view of the future compares with what’s discounted in the stock market.

**安东尼・波顿：**我觉得在投资时，要做到冷静客观，但同时也要全身心投入。投资是一个非常有趣的领域，在这个过程中，你可以接触到各种各样的企业，了解全球的重大发展趋势。但你也要时刻牢记，市场的定价能力不可小觑。很多人常犯的错误是，他们总是关注市场的前景，比如市场前景是光明还是黯淡？但关键在于，当下股票市场已经反映了怎样的市场预期？重要的不是市场前景本身，而是你对未来的判断与市场当前预期之间的差异。

关注认可的基金的持仓情况在中小型公司中尤为关键 

**Nicolai Tangen：**When you look at the stock market, what are the type of things you look at?How do you gauge the stock market’s mood, for instance? What are the.

**尼古拉・坦根：**当你研究股票市场时，通常会关注哪些方面呢？比如，你是如何判断市场情绪的呢？

**Anthony Bolton：**OK. I was someone who would like to look at a whole amalgam of things. And I always say, look, what I looked at wasn’t necessarily different from what most people perhaps how I mixed it together. It’s interesting when I look at a stock, often the first thing I look at is the chart. I want to know, you know, the chart immediately tells.

**安东尼・波顿：**我习惯综合考量多方面因素。我常说，我关注的内容可能与大多数人并无太大差异，关键在于我如何将这些信息进行整合分析。有趣的是，当我研究一只股票时，通常首先会查看它的走势图。通过走势图，我能快速了解一些关键信息。

**Nicolai Tangen：**So the chart being the stock price, right?

**尼古拉・坦根：**你说的走势图，就是股票价格走势图，对吧？

**Anthony Bolton：**Stock price and story.

**安东尼・波顿：**是的，包括股票价格走势和背后的相关信息。

**Nicolai Tangen：**And so I’m putting a chart in front of you. What are you, what are the things you listen to?

**尼古拉・坦根：**现在假设我把一张股票走势图摆在你面前，你会关注哪些具体信息呢？

**Anthony Bolton：**So the first, I mean, you know, it told am I early or late? Is this a stock that’s done well for a long time, you know, which probably means I’m late. Doesn’t always mean I’m late, but probably. Is it a stock that hasn’t done well. And those were the ones I particularly like, you know, to screen for because I’d look at them, some of them were no good. You know, they’re always going to be dogs. But particularly if there was change in the management or the portfolio businesses that they were in or the environment was changing for the better, then I’d look, especially with UK companies. I’d look at the shareholder list. I found it’s a very underrated thing to look at shareholder lists. And what I was looking for is, are the funds that I rate already owners of this company? This is particularly so in medium and smaller companies. and that was very much the heart of my approach. I mean, as the funds got bigger, I bought more big companies. but I think my greatest love was in medium small companies because you could, if you did your work, you knew that you knew more on those companies than most people do. So I mean, I can’t, you know, I’m 10 years out of date from doing it or even longer. But there were certain funds that I rated and it was interesting. If I saw lots of them there, then I knew I was late. They’d all discovered it before me. If I saw none of them there, I mean, that might be a great sign or it might be just it’s a terrible business. No one’s ever going to buy this. Perhaps the best were maybe there was already one other fund that I rated and that sort of said, well, they’ve already picked this up. And then but it leaves lots of room for other people to come in later.

**安东尼・波顿：**首先，我会通过走势图判断自己入场的时机是早还是晚。这只股票是长期表现良好，还是一直表现不佳？如果是前者，可能意味着我入场已经晚了，但这也不是绝对的。我会特别关注那些表现不佳的股票，筛选这些股票时，我发现其中一些确实没什么投资价值，就像 “垃圾股” 一样。但如果这些公司的管理层发生变动，或者其业务组合有所调整，又或者所处行业环境开始向好发展，我就会进一步研究，尤其是对于英国的公司。

我还会查看公司的股东名单，我认为这是一个常常被忽视但却非常重要的信息。我会关注我认可的那些基金是否已经持有这只股票，这在中小型公司中尤为关键，这也是我投资策略的核心部分。随着管理的资金规模不断扩大，我也会投资更多大型公司，但我最喜欢的还是中小型公司，因为只要你做足功课，就能比大多数人更了解这些公司的情况。

如今，我已经远离投资一线十年甚至更久了，但我还记得，以前有一些我比较认可的基金，如果我发现它们大量持有某只股票，那就说明我入场晚了，它们比我更早发现这只股票的价值。要是我发现没有一只我认可的基金持有这只股票，这可能是个好信号，也可能意味着这是一家糟糕的公司，根本没人愿意投资。最理想的情况是，有一只我认可的基金已经持有这只股票，这说明这只股票已经被发现有投资价值，但还有足够的空间供其他投资者入场。

**Nicolai Tangen：**Did you look at buy and sell recommendations and so on, or what did you do with those?

**尼古拉・坦根：**你会参考买卖建议之类的信息吗？你是怎么处理这些信息的呢？

**Anthony Bolton：**Yes, I, you know, that the two great things of the stock market. the weighing and the voting. Most people spend all their time on the weighing and I wouldn’t underestimate that. And obviously our analysts spent all that time on the way. But the voting was the bit that I really was interested looking, trying to measure sentiment in stock, and that’s ownership and things like insider dealing. I was, that was really important to me. If the insider trades confirmed or conflicted with my views. well, yeah, the CEOs were buying. But I also use charts as a sort of confirming or not confirming sign. People find that difficult. You know, Anthony, why do you think charts are important? But if the chart confirm my fundamental view and my general view. I might take a bigger position. And if the chart didn’t, if the chart started to roll down, it’s something, it was one of the factors I might come back my position because it was always incremental to me. I never came in one day and bought a huge position in a company. I was normally building something up. As my conviction increased and then the share price moved or something changed and then probably I was reducing it. So that for me it wasn’t black and white.

**安东尼・波顿：**会的，股票市场中有两个重要因素，即 “权衡” 和 “投票”。大多数人把大量时间花在权衡股票的价值上，我并不否认这很重要，我们的分析师也会花费大量时间进行这方面的工作。但我更关注 “投票” 因素，也就是通过研究股票的所有权结构、内幕交易等情况来衡量市场情绪。这对我的投资决策非常重要，如果内幕交易情况与我的判断相符或相悖，比如公司首席执行官在大量买入股票，这都会影响我的决策。

同时，我也会把走势图作为一种确认或否定投资决策的参考依据。很多人不太理解这一点，他们会问我：“安东尼，你为什么觉得走势图很重要呢？” 如果走势图与我对公司基本面和整体市场的判断相符，我可能会加大投资力度；但如果走势图显示股价开始下跌，这就会成为我调整投资仓位的一个考虑因素。

对我来说，投资决策并非非黑即白，我不会在一天之内就大量买入某家公司的股票，通常是逐步建仓。随着我对投资的信心增强，我会增加仓位；当股价发生变动或者其他因素发生变化时，我可能就会减持。

**Nicolai Tangen：**And management was really important.

**尼古拉・坦根：**公司管理层在你的投资决策中也很重要吧？

**Anthony Bolton：**You know, I, at the height, I was doing sort of four companies a day. but it was remeeting just in one meeting. I find, yeah, people impress you, but it’s seeing how the story develops and are they consistent in what they say.

**安东尼・波顿：**没错，在我投资生涯的高峰期，我每天要调研四家公司，不过很多时候只是进行二次会面。我发现，有些人初次见面时会给人留下深刻印象，但更重要的是观察他们讲述的公司发展故事是否能够持续推进，以及他们的言论是否前后一致。

特别青睐具有不对称回报的股票，即下行风险有限，但特定情况下却有很大的上涨空间

**Nicolai Tangen：**How do you decide the entry into a contrary position?

**尼古拉・坦根：**你是如何决定何时建立反向投资仓位的呢？

**Anthony Bolton：**I would buy a position, but I’d normally start, it was normally at half a percent, so 50 bits type position in the company. And then as my conviction increased, I may go up to 100 and then up to 200 and then I have a few positions where I perhaps got up to 400. It was interesting in the early days, I thought of everything 400, that’s like 4% of the portfolio. In the early days, I thought of everything absolutely because obviously in the last 10 or no last 20 years or so, one thinks much more in terms of relative positions than absolute positions. But that’s how I did it. And I normally had, you know, a thesis on it. One of the things I particularly like were asymmetric returns. So stocks where I thought the downside was limited. but they might in certain circumstances have a lot of upside.

**安东尼・波顿：**我通常会先买入一定仓位，刚开始一般是公司股票的0.5%，也就是50个基点左右的仓位。随着我对这笔投资的信心增强，我可能会将仓位增加到100个基点，然后是 200个基点，有些时候，我甚至会将仓位提高到400个基点。早期，我习惯从绝对仓位的角度去考虑投资，比如当时我会把400个基点的仓位看作是投资组合的4%。但在过去的10 年，不，应该是近20年左右，人们更多地从相对仓位的角度去思考投资决策。我一般会基于一定的投资逻辑来建仓，我特别青睐具有不对称回报的股票。也就是说，这类股票的下行风险有限，但在某些特定情况下，却有很大的上涨空间。（未完待续）

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