洪农：中俄加强北极合作，特朗普会怎么办？

【文/ 洪农，翻译/ 李泽西】

在共同抵御西方影响和追求北极治理战略利益的推动下，中俄伙伴关系正迅速迈向新高度。这种空前的水平不仅体现在近期的联合军事演习上，还包括加强海上合作以及高度协调的北极政策上。

两次引人注目的军事演习——“北部·联合-2024”和“大洋-2024”——充分展现了中俄军事合作的深度。

“北部·联合-2024”演习重点围绕反潜战和空中防御展开。演习测试了两国海军部队的高级互操作性，凸显了双方在战略地区进行联合作战的准备状态。

9月9日，中方海上舰艇编队向演习会合区航渡 人民海军公众号

据报道，“大洋-2024”演习侧重于保护关键基础设施的模拟防御战略，以及在未经准备的地形上实施进攻性两栖登陆。这些演习表明，双方高度重视对抗北约等潜在威胁的战备能力。

这些演习不仅旨在提升北极防御能力，也向西方国家释放信号，显示中俄在地缘政治竞争激烈的地区投射军事力量的能力。10月，中国海岸警卫队首次与俄罗斯海岸警卫队在北极水域联合巡逻，这是中俄双边海事合作的重要里程碑。

此次行动正值中国国庆节与中俄建交75周年之际，测试了海警船在北极极端自然条件下执行任务的能力。巡逻行动覆盖了俄罗斯专属经济区和阿拉斯加附近的白令海，凸显了双方加强海上协调的意愿，同时巩固了共同推动北极发展的战略决心。

这些合作表明，双方共同关注确保并开发“北方海路”。随着北极冰层消退，这条贸易航线的重要性日益增加，不仅能缩短欧亚之间的运输距离，还为获取大量自然资源提供了通道。

2010 年至 2022 年间北方航道的过境通行量 极地与海洋门户

除防务外，两国还深化了经济和科技领域的合作，进一步将中国的“极地丝绸之路”纳入北极区域框架。由于乌克兰冲突导致西方制裁和外交孤立，俄罗斯愈发依赖中国提供经济和技术支持；而中国则通过这一伙伴关系，确保获取关键北极资源和运输路线。面对制裁和北约在北极的存在，这一合作对双方均至关重要。

北极日益增长的战略意义，以及中俄不断深化的合作关系，也引发了对特朗普在2024年1月就任总统后，美国北极政策方向的新疑问。

在第一任期内，特朗普削弱了美国对《巴黎协定》等全球气候倡议的参与，但他对北极地区的经济潜力表现出浓厚兴趣，例如曾提议购买格陵兰岛。他还加强了美国在北极的军事存在，旨在制衡俄罗斯，确保美国的战略利益。2020年，他呼吁加速扩充美国破冰船队。

格陵兰岛 新华社

在第二个任期内，特朗普可能在北极政策上采取交易式策略，优先追求区域经济利益，同时遏制中国在北极的扩展。他与化石燃料行业的密切关系预示着他可能放松环境法规，大力推动石油和天然气的勘探开发，从而强化与中俄的资源竞争。

然而，特朗普对北约的怀疑态度，可能对该联盟在北极的战略协调构成严重挑战。尽管北约近年来加强了在北极的存在，特朗普的立场可能削弱盟国间的合作，侵蚀集体意志并削减行动能力。他长期以来对北约资金分摊公平性的批评，已经对联盟的团结性带来负面影响。若特朗普政府重回“美国优先”政策，可能进一步削弱美国对多边防务框架的承诺，令北约在北极的协调力和影响力大打折扣。

如果北约无法形成“统一战线”，将难以有效应对中俄在北极的联合行动，例如军事演习和“北方海路”沿线的基础设施建设。同时，特朗普对双边交易式外交的偏好，可能加剧北约内部分裂，为中俄在北极拓展合作提供更多空间。

这一局面可能促使俄罗斯更大胆地巩固其在北极治理中的主导地位，特别是在安全领域。而中国在推动“极地丝绸之路”战略时，也可能面临更少阻力。北约战略凝聚力的削弱不仅将改变北极地区的力量格局，还可能进一步加剧全球地缘政治的复杂性。

“冰上丝绸之路”建设热度增强，图为俄罗斯摩尔曼斯克拍摄的浮动重力式平台 新华社

应对这些风险需要采取精细的战略，在特朗普可能的政策转变与维护北约的“北极团结”之间取得平衡。通过加强与北极其他利益相关方的伙伴关系，并探索科学研究和可持续发展等非军事合作方式，或可缓解多边合作弱化所带来的不稳定。

西方国家需制定可持续的北极政策，将资源开发与环境管理相结合，以均衡应对该地区日益增长的经济潜力。

特朗普政府可能会优先考虑双边协议，而非多边框架，这可能加剧对北极资源的竞争，并削弱北约的合作势头。

2017年12月8日，中俄能源合作重大项目——亚马尔液化天然气项目第一条LNG（液化天然气）生产线正式投产，这一项目是中国提出“一带一路”倡议后实施的首个海外特大型项目，也是全球最大的北极LNG项目，对中国海外能源合作、提升中国在世界能源市场话语权具有重要意义 新华社

气候变化加速了北极资源开发的可行性，也进一步放大了该地区的地缘政治竞争，使各方面临的风险不断增加。通过采取合作方式并保持开放的对话渠道，各方有机会有效应对这些挑战，推动建立包容性的北极治理框架，平衡包括中俄在内的各方利益，促进区域稳定与共同发展。

英文原文：

The China-Russia partnership has reached unprecedented levels, propelled by mutual strategic interests in Arctic governance and a shared objective of countering Western influence. This partnership is reflected in recent joint military activities, enhanced maritime cooperation, and increasingly integrated Arctic policies.

Two high-profile military exercises – “Northern/Interaction-2024” and “Ocean-2024” – highlight the depth of China-Russian military cooperation.

The Northern/Interaction-2024 exercise emphasised anti-submarine warfare and aerial defence. The drills tested advanced interoperability between the two nations’ naval forces, underscoring their preparedness for joint operations in sensitive regions.

Ocean-2024 reportedly focused on simulated defensive strategies to protect vital infrastructure and on offensive amphibious landings on unprepared terrain. These simulations reflect an emphasis on maintaining operational readiness against potential threats such as those posed by Nato.

These exercises are not only about shoring up Arctic defence capabilities; they also send signals to Western nations, emphasising the partnership’s ability to project power in the geopolitically contested region. The Chinese coastguard’s first joint patrol with its Russian counterparts in Arctic waters last month marked a significant milestone in bilateral maritime cooperation.

Conducted during China’s National Day celebrations and the 75th anniversary of Sino-Russian diplomatic relations, the operation tested the vessels’ ability to perform in challenging Arctic conditions. Operating in Russia’s exclusive economic zone and the Bering Sea near Alaska, the patrol highlighted enhanced maritime coordination and reinforced their shared commitment to Arctic ambitions.

This cooperation suggests a shared focus on securing and developing the Northern Sea Route, a trade route with increasing global importance due to retreating Arctic ice. The route not only offers a shorter transit passageway between Europe and Asia but also provides access to vast natural resources.

Beyond defence, both nations have deepened economic and scientific cooperation, further embedding China’s “Polar Silk Road” into the region’s framework. Russia, facing Western sanctions and diplomatic isolation due to its war in Ukraine, increasingly leans on China for economic and technological support. In turn, Beijing secures access to critical Arctic resources and transport routes. This alliance is vital for both nations as they challenge sanctions and Nato’s Arctic presence.

The Arctic’s growing strategic significance and the deepening China-Russia partnership spark fresh questions about the direction of US policy under Donald Trump when he takes office as president in January.

During his first term, Trump undermined US involvement in global climate initiatives like the Paris Agreement, but showed a strong interest in the Arctic region’s economic potential, as seen with his proposal to purchase Greenland. Trump also reinforced the US military’s Arctic presence, aiming to counterbalance Russia and secure US strategic interests. In 2020, Trump called for an accelerated expansion of the US icebreaker fleet.

In his second term, Trump may adopt a transactional approach to Arctic policy, emphasising economic access to regional resources and opposing China’s increasing Arctic presence. His ties to the fossil fuel industry suggest he will roll back environmental regulations to encourage oil and gas exploration and compete with Russia and China.

Meanwhile, Trump’s scepticism towards Nato could undermine the alliance’s cohesive Arctic strategy. While Nato has recently bolstered its presence in the Arctic, a Trump presidency could strain allied coordination, potentially weakening collective resolve. Trump’s past critiques of Nato, including questioning its financial fairness, have cast doubt on the alliance’s unity. A renewed focus on “America first” policies might deprioritise US commitments to multilateral defence frameworks.

Without a united front, Nato might struggle to effectively deter joint China-Russia activities such as military drills and infrastructure projects along the Northern Sea Route. Trump’s preference for transactional diplomacy could prompt bilateral deals with Arctic stakeholders, diluting Nato’s influence and opening avenues for China and Russia to leverage regional fragmentation in their favour.

Such scenarios could embolden Russia to assert greater dominance over Arctic governance, especially in security matters, and enable China to advance its “Polar Silk Road” initiative under reduced scrutiny. The potential erosion of Nato’s strategic cohesion would shift the balance of power in the Arctic and complicate broader global dynamics.

Addressing these risks requires a nuanced strategy that balances Trump’s possible policy shifts with the preservation of Nato’s Arctic unity. Strengthening partnerships with other Arctic stakeholders and exploring non-military avenues of cooperation, such as scientific research and sustainable development, could help mitigate the destabilising effects of reduced multilateral engagement.

Increased Sino-Russian partnership in the Arctic brings to the fore key considerations for the West. Collaborative activities, such as joint drills, underscore the need for enhanced vigilance and robust defence capabilities to safeguard critical Arctic territories and infrastructure. Western nations must also urgently craft sustainable Arctic policies that align resource development with environmental stewardship, ensuring a balanced approach to the region’s growing economic potential.

The next Trump administration might prioritise bilateral agreements over multilateral frameworks, fostering competition for Arctic resources while potentially reducing Nato’s collaborative momentum. This could create openings for China and Russia to expand their influence in Arctic governance and energy policy. This makes dialogue to mitigate tensions and foster coexistence all the more important.

The Arctic is increasingly emerging as a focal point for international cooperation and competition. China and Russia, while strategically aligned, have distinct national priorities and ambitions to shape the regional order. For Western nations, this partnership calls for nuanced and coordinated strategies that balance engagement with preparedness.

As climate change accelerates resource accessibility and amplifies geopolitical interest in the Arctic, the stakes remain high for all stakeholders. By pursuing collaborative approaches and maintaining open channels of communication, the West can effectively navigate these challenges, promoting an inclusive framework for Arctic governance that considers the interests of all regional players, including China and Russia.