非国大的统治落幕了吗？_风闻

**提要：**5月29日，南非举行种族隔离制度结束后的第七次全国大选。执政党非洲人国民大会（非国大ANC）未能获得议会过半数席位，结束其30年来的单独执政地位。这一结果被国际媒体认为是南非政治发展中的“历史性分水岭”。

南非国家行政学院院长恩卡韦尼在《星期日时报》（Sunday Times）上发表题为《非国大未来何去何从？看看世界上其他政党怎么走的》（A Time for Renewal and Regeneration of the African National Congress: Unmandated Reflections）的评论，对非国大的未来进行了深入的思考。文章通过对比分析巴西、玻利维亚、马来西亚、瑞典、新加坡等国家的政党案例，为非国大的未来发展提供了参考，并鼓励其党员以新的动力和清晰的方向继续推动正义平等。

2024年南非选举结果，非国大仅占据40.18%的席位，需要联盟合作伙伴以超过50%的选票并组建政府。图源：半岛电视台

在这个反思的时刻，我们有许多需要考虑的；我们应该以科学的态度谨慎行事，而不是感情用事或怀旧。

也许我们应该立即研究巴西最近的趋势和瑞典社会民主党的遭遇，并从中参照到一些切实可行的前行方案。这些案例之所以重要，是因为它们都诠释出导致当下情况的根本原因：在位之“罪”。

我们还可以参考英国工党的情况：他们哪怕重新掌权都不容易，更不用说以有力的方式反击英国脱欧所带来的右翼冲击；欧洲大陆和拉丁美洲的许多其他进步力量也是如此。亚洲也有值得关注的案例，特别是近年来马来西亚的情况。

选择有很多，但我们可以通过考虑主要问题进行筛选：我们为谁而存在，我们存在的目的是什么，如何才能最好地实现这一目的？

基于此，我们就可以进而决定是否组建一个执政联盟（选择也不多），还是允许反对派联盟来执政，这样我们有机会像巴西的卢拉和瑞典的社民党那样进行重建。

在第二种情况下，我们就把未来 5 年变成一个“间歇期”，在此期间对政治运动进行彻底改革，重新构想结构和运作程序，并根据国内和国际形势制定明确的国家长期发展议程。罗莎·卢森堡（Rosa Luxemburg）曾说，“那些不动的人，不会注意到身上的枷锁”。

我们可能遭遇的最坏情况就是非洲大陆和拉丁美洲发生的情况，在那里，失去国家权力的进步运动沦为历史。这种情况极有可能发生，因为我们中的一些人已经在寻找替罪羊，误导公众，比如议会主席格威德·曼塔什（Gwede

Mantashe）放弃了理性分析，将我们在夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省的溃败归结为“部落主义”。列宁告诫我们，“没有革命形势，就不可能发生革命，而且并不是任何革命形势都会引起革命”。

我们需要深入了解当前形势，从而恰当地回答列宁的问题：“该怎么做”。如果说存在部落主义，那么这源自我们运动肆无忌惮的派系斗争，以及我们设计和实施了 30 多年的教育体系。(相反，我们应该问，鉴于领导层优先考虑派系斗争而非公共服务，导致夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省德班市的公共服务因遭忽视而急剧下降，我们凭什么期望得到选民的投票？分析工具……)

回到主题，我仍在思考这个问题；更糟糕的是，我们自一月份开始在国际法院起诉以色列以来就积攒了不少政治资本，但我们却没能加以利用。

在这一关键的历史时刻，全球南方国家还有更多的例子可以作为我们的宝贵经验。

正如我所说的那样，在巴西，卢拉同志领导的工人党在经历了多年的政治斗争和丑闻之后，成功地重新赢得了人民的信任。卢拉担任总统期间，注重社会项目、消除贫困和建立联盟，标志着巴西社会和经济取得了重大进步。

我还可以引用一个我不太熟悉的案例： 玻利维亚。在玻利维亚，社会主义运动在路易斯·阿尔塞（Luis Arce）的领导下，继埃沃·莫拉莱斯（Evo Morales）之后成功重新掌权。这次东山再起得益于重新关注基层动员和解决土著居民需求。

在坦桑尼亚，革命党通过不断适应不断变化的政治环境，同时坚持其社会主义和自力更生的基本原则，始终与时俱进。通过专注于经济发展、反腐败措施以及与农村社区保持紧密联系，革命党成功地保持了其作为坦桑尼亚主导政治力量的地位。他们仍然是全球南方最可靠的盟友。

在马来西亚，包括民主行动党在内的民联通过强调治理改革、反腐败措施以及促进多元文化和包容社会的发展，展现出了顽强的生命力。他们在 2018 年大选中的胜利是一个重要的里程碑，尽管随后的政治动荡带来了挑战。他们动员基层民众。最近，一位前总统在那里受到了法律的严惩。

越南共产党也是与我们最贴切的案例。该党在革新方面取得了成功，保持其核心地位的同时推动了经济改革，“革新开放”就是他们正在实施的推动结构性改革的一种方式，迄今已有 30 多年的历史。与中国一样，他们拥有以社会主义导向的市场经济，国有企业和私营企业都是重要的参与者，这导致了外国直接投资的流入（固定投资，而不是我们通常说的资金流入）。就在最近，在对非常高级别的政治家和官员提出指控后，他们进行了一些严肃的政治变革。

回到瑞典的案例（他们的一些领导人曾说过，我们需要从他们身上吸取惨痛的教训），社民党通过务实的政策调整和建立联盟，得以重建并重新掌权。在 2000 年代初因自满情绪而失去支持后，他们重新调整了方向，以解决人民对不平等和停滞不前的担忧。通过与其他进步力量和绿色政党结盟，社民党成功重返执政，并强调了对社会公正、环境可持续性和包容性经济增长的承诺。

新加坡的人民行动党也有很多值得参考的东西：建立一个任人唯贤、勇于创新的国家，建设一个充满活力的经济，在社会各方面具有绝对权威，这就是为什么他们严厉打击一切腐败行为，不管被指控的是谁。在新加坡，只要被指控有不法行为，就足以断送你的政治生涯。中国共产党所取得的相当部分成就得益于从新加坡吸取的经验教训。中国共产党的改革方案滚动式地渗透到整个社会。他们及时处理流氓，将“拉帮结派”现象视为人民公敌。中国共产党衡量其业绩的标准不是口号和意识形态，而是社会经济成果：增长和小康。

正如许多人指出的那样，这次选举使我们更加紧密地团结在一起。无赖们离开了，而那些致力于推进运动的人留下来并为胜利而奋斗。前领导人（祖马）的竞选活动是一个重要的时刻，我们应在此基础上团结一致，埋葬旧的竞争，建设未来。在此基础上，我们必须继续前进，并将人民放在第一位，当然还有国家和资本。是的，包括资本。我们毕竟是一个声称相信混合经济体系的运动，而我们的政策已经使南非的资本急剧增加。一个强大的国家通过与资本密切合作来实现其主要目标，使资本能够创造价值，并在必要时通过规则和透明的程序进行约束。我们必须考虑任何举措对企业的影响，同时也必须认真思考我们的举措是否可能破裂本已脆弱的国家。

当地时间2024年3月27日，南非德班，南非前总统祖马在高等法院外向支持者发表讲话。图源：Rogan Ward/澎湃影像

全球进步力量和反动势力都在关注着我们。对某些人来说，这一刻使南非特殊论破产了：我们和其他人一样，我们将回到新自由主义的利爪之下。我们可能很快就会有一位当白宫走狗的总统，放弃巴勒斯坦，背弃全球南方。随着不平等继续加剧，国家将进一步陷入混乱，新的种族冲突也将出现。如果这种情况发生，我们这场运动，将不得不承担责任，因为当我们有机会埋葬派别纷争、建设国家能力并专注于为人民服务时，我们却陷入了道德诱惑和伦理困境，因为权力。切·格瓦拉曾告诫我们，“革命不是熟透了的苹果。你必须做点什么，它才会掉下来”。 我们祈祷经济增长和犯罪结束，但我们本应该采取果断干预措施。

出于对民主进程的忠心，我必须承认这对于我们所有人来说都是内心成长的一刻，需要我们走向成熟，为了国家利益而放弃个人利益。正如世界其他地方的兄弟党所做的那样，如果最终结果不利于我们，我们绝不能成为反叛运动。我们必须让我们广泛的赞助网络崩溃，为成员找到其他谋生途径，并接受政治要求微妙处理矛盾，即使这些矛盾需要我们为了国家利益而遏制欲望。

同志们，我们前进的道路必须以国际友人的教训、革命先辈的智慧和人民的愿望为指导。我们必须确保以新的活力和清晰的思路继续为正义和平等而奋斗。

（翻译：李泽西）

英文原文：

A Time for Renewal and Regeneration of the African National Congress: Unmandated Reflections

By Busani Ngcaweni

During this moment of reckoning, there many things to consider. However, I think we should proceed and act with scientific caution, not emotion or nostalgia.

Perhaps we should immediately study recent trends in Brazil and what happened to the SDP in Sweden and from that emerge with some practical steps forward. The cases matter because their combination is what brought us here - sins of incumbency. 

There is also the case of the Labour Party (in the UK) that we can look at. In their instance, they are struggling to return let alone emerge with a cogent counter to the right wing onslaught consolidated by Brexit, as has been the case with many other progressive forces in the continent and in Latin America. There are cases in Asia too that are worth looking at, especially what has happened in Malaysia in recent years. 

The options are many, but they narrow down as we answer the principal questions: for whom do we exist, what is our purpose and how can it be best served?

From the latter we can then proceed to decide whether we form a coalition (the options are few there also) or allow the moonshot pact (by the way, EFF is part of it and they do favor it!) to govern whilst we rebuild like Lula in Brazil and the SDP in Sweden. 

In that scenario, we will call the next 5 years an interregnum period in which we do a complete overhaul of the movement, re-imagine structures and operating procedures and define a clear long-term national development agenda informed by national and international realities. Was it Rosa Luxemburg who said to us: “Those who do not move, do not notice their chains.”

The worst that could happen to us is what has happened in the continent and in Latin America where losing state powers banishes progressive movements into the archive. That is highly possible as some among us are already searching for scapegoats, gas-lighting the public, as we have seen the National Chair abandon all tools of analysis at his disposal to reduce our KZN misfortunes to tribalism. Lenin warned us: “a revolution is impossible without a revolutionary situation; furthermore, not every revolutionary situation leads to revolution.” 

We need deep dives to understand the contemporary moment, and from that answer, appropriately, Lenin’s question: “what is to be done.” If there is tribalism, we bred it as the movement through unchecked factionalism and taught it through the education curriculum we designed and implemented over 30 year. (Instead we should be asking, on what scientific basis do we expect the people of Ethekwini to vote for us given the dramatic decline of the city and its services, overlooked by the leadership for factional instead of service delivery considerations? Tools of analysis…) 

But I divert, I am still pondering your metaphor my Comrade, made worse by our inability to harvest the political capital we have cultivated in the WC since January when we embarked on the ICJ mission. 

There are further examples from the global south that can serve as valuable lessons for us at this critical historical moment. 

As I have said, in Brazil the Workers’ Party under the leadership of Comrade Lula managed to regain the trust of the people after years of political struggle and scandals. By focusing on social programmes, anti-poverty initiatives and coalition-building, Lula’s presidency marked a period of significant social and economic progress for Brazil. 

I can quote a case I am less familiar with also (excuse me if I get the facts wrong my leader): Bolivia. There, the Movement for Socialism successfully returned to power with Luis Arce after Evo Morales. This comeback was facilitated by a renewed focus on grassroots mobilization and addressing the needs of the indigenous population.

In Tanzania, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi party has remained relevant by continuously adapting to the changing political landscape while maintaining its foundational principles of socialism and self-reliance. By focusing on economic development, anti-corruption measures, and maintaining strong connections with rural communities, the CCM has managed to retain its position as the dominant political force in Tanzania. And they remain the most reliable ally of the global south.

In Malaysia, the Pakatan Harapan coalition, which includes the Democratic Action Party, has shown resilience by emphasising governance reforms, anti-corruption measures, and promoting a multicultural and inclusive society. Their victory in the 2018 elections was a significant milestone, though subsequent political turbulence has posed challenges. They mobilise grassroots. A former president faced the full mighty of the law there in recent times. 

The Communist Party of Vietnam is our most relevant case study too. The party has been successful in its renewal efforts, retaining its hegemony whilst driving economic reforms. Sorry I can get this wrong but is something like Đổi Mới or renovation in English that they are implementing as a way of driving structural reforms for well over 30 years now. Like in China, they have a socialist-oriented market economy where the both the state sector and the private sector are big players, leading to FDI flows (fixed investment, not the inflows that we often obsess about). Just recently, they have done some serious political changes after allegations were raised about very senior politicians and officials. 

Back to the Sweden case (I recall some of their leaders saying we need to learn hard lessons from them), the SDP were able to rebuild and win back power through a combination of pragmatic policy adjustments and coalition-building. After losing support due to complacency in the early 2000s, they reoriented addressed the concerns of the people over inequality and stagnation. By forming alliances with other progressive forces and green parties, the SDP successfully returned to power, emphasizing a commitment to social justice, environmental sustainability, and inclusive economic growth.

A short trip to Singapore will teach us a lot about 3 things from the People’s Action Party there: building a meritocratic and innovative state, building a vibrant economy and regaining hegemony in society why dealing harshly with all acts of corruption regardless of who is accused. Mere allegations of wrong doing in Singapore and enough to end your political career. Most of what the CPC of China has achieved is thanks to lessons learnt from the island (Singapore). The CPC is a rolling programme of reforms that permeates the whole of society. They deal with rogues promptly and factionalism is regarded as the enemy of the people. The CPC measures its performance not by slogans and ideology but by socioeconomic outcomes - growth and moderate prosperity. 

These elections brought us closer, together, as many have observed. Rogues left and those committed to the movement stayed and campaigned for victory. The campaign by former leaders was a significant moment from which we should build to close ranks, bury old rivalries and build into the future. That is a basis upon which we must proceed and keep the people at the center of all our considerations, and of course the state and capital. Yes, I said it: capital. We are after all a movement that claims to believe in the mixed economy model and our policies have seen a dramatic increase in capital in this country. A strong state achieves its key objectives by working closely with capital, enabling it to create value and disciplining through rules and transparent processes where necessary. We have to factor in what will happen to business in our calculations, as much as we must think hard the rupture that might happen to the already fragile state. 

We are being watched globally, by progressive and reactionary forces alike. For some, this moment collapses the South African exceptionalism theory - we are like everyone else and we will return into the sharp jaws of neoliberalism. We might soon have a President who swings in the POTUS chair at the White House, abandon Palestine and turn our backs on the global south. As inequality continues bites, the country slides further into chaos and new racial conflicts arise. And it will be us, the movement, who will have to take responsibility if this scenario materializes because when we had a chance to bury factionalism, build state capacity and focus exclusively on serving the people, we got entangled in moral temptations and ethical dilemmas because, yeyi, kumnandi kwi power! Che warned us: “The revolution is not an apple that falls when it is ripe. You have to make it fall.” We prayed for growth and crime to end when we should be decisively intervened. 

I will be dishonest to the democratic project if I fail to emphasise that this is a moment of growth for all us, calling for maturity and divorcing personal interests for national good. As other fraternal parties have done elsewhere in the world, if the final outcomes disfavour the movement, we must not become a rebel movement. We must allow our wide patronage networks to collapse, find alternative livelihoods for members and accept that political life is about delicate managing contradictions, even if they result in the subordination of desires in the best interest of the nation.

Our path forward Comrades must be guided by the lessons of our international friends, the wisdom of our revolutionary forebears and the wishes of the people we exist to serve. We must ensure that our struggle for justice and equality continues with renewed vigor and clarity.