《金融时报》发文称，西方需要对“即将到来的中国芯片洪流”制定计划_风闻

英国媒体金融时报（Finacial Times）在当地时间1月28日的时候发布了一篇报道，标题为《西方国家需要对“即将到来的中国芯片洪流”制定一个计划》。

根据相关信息显示，这篇文章的作者是曾写出《芯片战争》的美国塔夫茨大学教授、经济学家克里斯·米勒。

根据文章内容的描述，事情的起因源自于中芯国际公司在某一次季度财报电话会议上，表示该公司未来生产的半导体产品可能会出现全球供应过剩的情况，但即使如此，中芯国际仍然宣布要增加75亿美元的支出来提高自己的产能。

On a recent quarterly earnings call, the chief executive of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, China’s leading chipmaker, predicted a “global supply glut” in the types of semiconductors his company produces. Simultaneously, he announced a $7.5bn increase in capital expenditure.

原文相关段落

同时，美国的一家咨询公司表示，未来三年，中国的芯片产能可能会增加60%，甚至还会在未来五年内翻一番。

文章中还提到，由于西方对中国施加的芯片制造方面的限制，中国无法生产最先进的芯片处理器。所以目前中国能大量生产的，都是被用在汽车、家庭用品和消费设备上的基础芯片。

而部分西方的分析师则将中国提高芯片产能的举动与中国大量投资太阳能电池板的举动作类比，担心一旦中国的芯片产能过剩，将会对西方的芯片制造厂商造成冲击。

Since western restrictions on the exports of chipmaking equipment to China mean that it can’t produce the most advanced processor chips, much of this production will be of foundational processor chips, which are widely used in cars, household goods and consumer devices. 

The most pessimistic analysts see China’s investment in solar panels as an analogy, worrying that the country’s chipmaking investment will drive down prices — and western companies’profits.

原文相关段落，主要意思是担心中国芯片一旦涌入市场，会把芯片价格打下来，这会导致西方芯片生产商的利润受到冲击。

克里斯还表示，美国共和党已经有议员呼吁政府应该施加关税，来防止中国借此获得对世界经济的“过度影响力”，但因为许多成品设备中的芯片来源难以追查，所以这一措施要实施起来，恐怕是有些难度。

On January 8, Republican congressman Mike Gallagher called on the Biden administration to use tariffs if necessary to prevent China gaining “excessive leverage” over the world’s economy.

They face complex trade-offs. Tariffs are the usual tool for dealing with dumping, but the west doesn’t directly import large volumes of Chinese chips; they’re embedded inside finished devices. Foundational chips often constitute a tiny fraction of a product’s cost. Some companies don’t even know the origin of chips inside their components.

原文相关段落，里边提到许多公司甚至都不知道他们买来的设备里的芯片是哪里生产的。

对此，克里斯认为现在仍然存在两种应对方法，第一种是给芯片生产商补贴，让许多企业不需要使用含有中国芯片的设备，第二种是允许特定的中国进入市场，并且对于中国芯片的用途进行严格限制。

Given the administrative complexity of tariffs, officials are exploring alternatives. One approach is to subsidise the use of non-Chinese chips, though this would require governments to find new funds. A second option is to limit the market access of specific Chinese companies.

As governments ramp up investigations of potential overcapacity in China, companies elsewhere will realise that they, too, could be asked to explain the security implications of their reliance on cut-price Chinese chips.

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