亚洲开发银行表示，随着中国经济放缓，发展中亚洲地区将迎来增长-彭博社
Shinjini Datta
中国以外的发展中国家亚洲在未来两年内将迎来扩张，因为消费需求依然强劲，通货膨胀有所缓解，亚洲开发银行表示。
根据该集团的年度展望，该地区经济今年和2025年将以4.9%的速度增长。通货膨胀预计从去年的3.3%略微降至今年的3.2%，2025年为3%。报告指出，中国的增长将放缓，因为房地产行业和国内需求仍然疲弱。
包括旅游业在内的服务消费增加以及半导体需求的反弹将推动中国以外国家的增长。
关键风险仍然存在，包括地缘政治紧张局势、美联储今年的政策路径、中国房地产市场进一步恶化和通货膨胀。气象事件威胁作物产量和出口限制对贸易造成压力，食品价格增长仍然是该地区的一个问题。
稳定增长前景
亚洲发展中的主要经济体预计将在2025年前保持稳定扩张
来源：亚洲发展展望
| 年份 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 预测 | 预测 | 实际 | 预测 | 预测 | 实际 | |
| GDP | 通货膨胀 | |||||
| 发展中国家 | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% |
| 不包括中国的发展中国家 | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% |
| 高加索和中亚 | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 10.5% |
| 亚美尼亚 | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| 阿塞拜疆 | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.8% |
| 格鲁吉亚 | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% |
| 哈萨克斯坦 | 5.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 14.5% |
| 吉尔吉斯斯坦 | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 10.8% |
| 塔吉克斯坦 | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% |
| 土库曼斯坦 | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% |
| 乌兹别克斯坦 | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| 东亚 | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| 香港 | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% |
| 蒙古 | 6.0% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 10.4% |
| 中国 | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 韩国 | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% |
| 台湾 | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| 南亚 | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% |
| 阿富汗 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 10.8% |
| 孟加拉国 | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.0% |
| 不丹 | 7.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% |
| 印度 | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% |
| 马尔代夫 | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% |
| 尼泊尔 | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% |
| 巴基斯坦 | 2.8% | 1.9% | n/a | 15.0% | 25.0% | 29.2% |
| 斯里兰卡 | 2.5% | 1.9% | n/a | 5.5% | 7.5% | 17.4% |
| 东南亚 | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% |
| 文莱达鲁萨兰国 | 2.8% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 柬埔寨 | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% |
| 印度尼西亚 | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% |
| 老挝 | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 7.0% | 20.0% | 31.2% |
| 马来西亚 | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| 缅甸 | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 10.2% | 15.5% | 22.0% |
| 菲律宾 | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 6.0% |
| 新加坡 | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.8% |
| 泰国 | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| 东帝汶 | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 8.4% |
| 越南 | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% |
| 太平洋 | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% |
| 库克群岛 | 5.2% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 13.2% |
| 密克罗尼西亚联邦 | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% |
| 斐济 | 2.7% | 3.0% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.4% |
| 基里巴斯 | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 9.7% |
| 马绍尔群岛 | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% |
| 瑙鲁 | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% |
| 纽埃 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 8.6% |
| 帕劳 | 8.0% | 6.5% | n/a | 1.0% | 5.5% | 12.4% |
| 巴布亚新几内亚 | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% |
| 萨摩亚 | 4.0% | 4.2% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 12.0% |
| 所罗门群岛 | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.6% |
| 汤加 | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 9.7% |
| 图瓦卢 | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 7.2% |
| 瓦努阿图 | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 13.5% |
来源：亚洲发展展望2024年4月亮点