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passivemanagementresistance Bloomberg passivemanagementresistance Bloomberg passivemanagementresistance Bloomberg passivemanagementresistance Bloomberg passivemanagementresistance Bloomberg passivemanagementresistance Bloomberg passivemanagementresistance Bloomberg passivemanagementresistance Bloomberg passivemanagementresistance Bloomberg passivemanagementresistance Bloomberg passivemanagementresistance Bloomberg passivemanagementresistance Bloomberg passivemanagementresistance Bloomberg passiv

John Authers

对抗资本主义的被动投资。

摄影师：Stuart Isett/Bloomberg

要直接将约翰·奥瑟斯的通讯发送到您的收件箱，请在此处注册。

今日要点：

  • 被动投资的扭曲是由资金的新流入引起的。
  • 基准由主动基金的基准化加剧了这一现象。
  • 保持价格发现的方式是通过扩大私人市场，而不是在公共市场中进行更好的主动管理。
  • 比特币回来了，现在它正试图进入银行。
  • 提示：试试一个很棒的播客，讲述英国悲惨的一年1974年。

被动侵略

被动投资听起来无害。它的名字暗示着被 passively 管理的基金实际上并没有做任何事情。但它越来越被描述为一种破坏者，破坏市场，与资本主义作斗争。随着被动投资在股票市场中占据了更为主导的地位，这样的论点变得更加可信。在年初，晨星，最广泛引用的跟踪基金管理部门的机构，报告称美国的多数投资基金首次被 passively 管理。

在这样的规模下，被动概念开始变得脆弱。打个比方，蓝鲸在所有账户中都是相当和平的动物，但是把它放进游泳池，它就会为其他人制造波浪。

对被动管理的批评已经存在几十年了。上周，对被动管理的批评达到了新的高潮，对冲基金经理大卫·艾因霍恩，最著名的是他在2008年对雷曼兄弟的成功做空，在彭博采访中抱怨说，被动管理者已经破坏了市场。他说，被动世界的每个人都依赖其他人为他们做功课，并为股票设定合理的价格。这样的反对意见并不新鲜，但我收到的反馈量表明人们对此的兴趣只增加了；所以我再次回到这个话题。

两个数学极点

总结我的主要观点：被动管理由于其较低的费用，随着时间的推移将为其投资者表现得比大多数主动管理基金更好。随着时间的推移，股市已经越来越机构化。美联储的数据显示，个人家庭持有的比例从二战后的90%以上下降到现在的不到33%。因此，75年前所有专业资金管理人都能击败指数，因为他们并不多。他们也处于一个拥有大量个人投资者的市场，这些投资者持有股票的原因并不一定是为了击败市场基准。现在，算术明显对主动管理者不利。

这是争论的一个极端。另一方面，市场不可能完全 passively 管理。如果这样做，市场将无法运转，价格发现 — 为不同证券设定合理价格，使资金流向最佳用途的地方 — 将变得不可能。目前，指数基金相信市场对公司的估值，这意味着向已经具有高估值的公司投入更多资金。这有助于市场内泡沫的形成，比如七巨头科技股的崛起。

这引起了一些反对意见。“如果 passively 的集中化产生了你所声称的‘被锁定在琥珀中’的结果，”一位读者写道，“那么我们不应该看到指数集中度的*增长* — 我们应该看到更静态的指数权重（为什么按市场权重交易会*增加*最大公司的权重？在数学上是荒谬的）。这在某种程度上是正确的，但忽略了三十多年来 passively 基金一直在吸纳净流入资金。仅去年，晨星公司表示 passively 美国股票基金吸纳了 2440 亿美元，而主动基金遭受了 2570 亿美元的资金外流。这延续了一个早已确立的趋势：

每一笔新的资金都会按照最新的市场权重进行投资。如果一些基金经理对英伟达公司感到兴奋并推高其价格，那么 passively 基金也将被迫用其新的资金购买更多的英伟达公司股票，从而推高泡沫。我还通过警告说，如果对指数基金失去信心，这些趋势可能会逆转，引起了一些困惑。清楚地说，我并不是指大多数主动基金经理会击败指数，而是说随着资金从 passively 基金中流出，我们可能会预期这些扭曲会逆转。在每一轮新的销售以满足赎回需求时，最大的股票将看到最大的抛售。主动基金经理看到赎回的到来，可能会提前采取规避行动，退出大型市值股。

在这种环境下，被动基金的回报率（扣除费用后）会比中位数主动管理者略高。但如今它们是首选的投资工具，如果人们感到恐慌并试图离开市场，退出的资金将不成比例地来自较大的股票。大规模的被动资金可能会导致巨大的混乱。

价格发现？

那么，我们如何保护价格发现？要明确的是，问题不在于市场的整体价值，而在于其中的相对估值。研究机构Research Affiliates的Rob Arnott认为，指数化并不有助于价格发现，但这并不意味着它是反资本主义的：

首先，指数基金对推动价格发现没有任何作用；这一角色由主动管理者（基本上任何不是指数化的资金）来扮演。如果主动管理者拥有市场的10%，这仍足够让价格发现发挥作用。其次，仅仅说指数化是不好的是不够的；至关重要的是提供一个更优越的选择，可以在扣除费用和交易成本后为长期投资者赢得胜利。

Arnott的答案通常被标记为 “智能贝塔（Smart Beta）”，或者利用被动技术来降低成本，但将基金与按不同因素加权的指数挂钩。例如，如果你的ETF基金根据公司的总收入和利润进行配置，而不是根据它们的市值，你可以使用被动基金来纠正异常情况。

多少活动足够？摄影师：卡尔·科特/盖蒂图片社然而，除此之外，我们何时达到“被动投资的顶峰”呢？阿诺特认为，即使 passively 投资达到了 90%，价格发现仍然可以发挥作用，多年来，指数化的最大倡导者也提出了这一观点。在这样的环境中，积极管理者需要做出更多积极和集中的押注，因为他们为其他人设定价格。然而，大多数人将落后于指数。对所谓的积极份额的日益增长——寻找股票选择与被动配置大不相同的积极基金——旨在推动这一点。

伦敦 Capeview Capital LLP 的 Adrian Cattley 提出了一个更复杂的观点，即资本主义有办法纠正公共股权市场价格发现系统的任何失败。他提醒我们，股权市场并不等同于经济：

让我们假设这七个了不起的公司吸引了资本，它们的市盈率继续上升，像吸血鬼一样吸干了市场上其他公司的估值，以至于它们无法在公开市场上融资。到目前为止都很糟糕。但是，如果它们的价格跌至非常低的水平，作为一个私人非指数买家，我可以介入。如果它们没有办法为一个新项目融资，但其回报率很有吸引力，那么不在股权市场上的公司将为其提供资金。这一点是关键。在任何地方，赚取投资资本的钱的愿望都很强烈，不仅仅是在公共股权市场上。主要是公共股权市场上的人在抱怨这一点。

如果卡特利和他的同事们可以把钱投入到一家英国房地产开发商，并且“因为公开市场已经发挥了作用，使得股本回报率达到25%，那么我会很高兴，”他说。“资本主义很难被消灭。”

如果这听起来有点达尔文主义，那是因为它确实如此。只投资于公共股权的平均股本基金不会击败市场。它是一种恐龙。但是，如果主动管理者决定将他们的技能用于管理私人资产，那么他们可能会比标普500指数做得更好。事实上，大型捐赠基金和养老基金管理者正在向私人资产配置越来越多的资金。不利的一面是，这样的管理者为他们的服务收费比指数基金，甚至是传统的主动管理基金要高得多。

被动投资的总体效果可能会证明，它会让我们大多数人更便宜地获得整体市场的回报，同时让寻找最佳回报变得更加昂贵。想法？

比特币回归

比特币十多年前由神秘的中本聪发明，至今仍然受到怀疑和乐观情绪的交织。目前，乐观主义者再次占上风。这种数字资产今年已经暴涨了近25%，周四达到了52,749美元，是自2021年以来的最高水平，是一年前的三倍。

是什么原因？首先要注意的是，这种令人瞩目的2024年开局是在证券交易委员会的历史性批准以及随后的比特币现货基金的推出之后。它们并没有帮助实现作为传统金融体系替代品的最初目标，但在20多个交易日之后，成功案例层出不穷。比特币的涨势使其市值超过了1万亿美元，这是两年多以来首次。

期权市场的赌注表明，交易员们的目标价格超过了26个月前的近69,000美元的记录。他们很可能正在押注所谓的比特币减半，该减半预计将于4月份进行，旨在限制供应。这应该会支撑价格，因为以往的减半都是如此。

如果有人付出代价，那就是黄金投资者。黄金现货基金的资金流出已攀升至约20亿美元，而自证券交易委员会批准以来，比特币现货基金的资金流入几乎是这个数额的两倍。然而，监管要求正在发生变化。已经有一个贸易团体向证券交易委员会提出请愿，要求调整会计指南，使美国银行为客户持有数字资产变得更加昂贵。

该团体包括银行政策协会、美国银行家协会、证券业协会和金融市场协会，以及金融服务论坛，希望修改指导方针，要求包括银行在内的上市公司将加密货币视为负债计入资产负债表。这使得持有加密货币变得更加昂贵，因为银行必须留出价值相似的资产以防止损失。修订内容包括在加密货币的广泛范围内排除某些资产以及豁免受监管的放贷机构免受资产负债表要求的影响。

这将需要另一次大规模的游说工作，但现金基金的竞选提供了一个模板。正如Miller Tabak + Co.的Matt Maley所说：“如果比特币继续上涨并变得更加主流，那么对证券交易委员会的压力将变得更加强大。如果比特币变得更加主流，他们如何能够比其他人更加限制银行？”

这绝不是中本聪当初设想的。但如果监管机构继续感到有义务允许加密货币成为银行系统以及证券市场的一部分，那么比特币的复兴机会将会持续。

—Richard Abbey

再次担任首相：哈罗德·威尔逊再也不会有这么好的机会了。摄影师：雷格·兰开斯特/赫尔顿档案馆/盖蒂图片社### 生存贴士

另一个播客推荐。1974年是我八岁的时候，所以我可能并没有完全理解当时发生的一切，但在那一年，英国可能比战后其他任何一个大型发达经济体更接近完全失控。两次无果的选举，政府规定的三天工作制，北爱尔兰的内战蔓延到英国本土，反复发生恐怖主义活动，看起来很像一次未遂政变，所有这些都发生在经济崩溃的时候；那一年，英国经历了一切。乌干达独裁者伊迪·阿敏甚至开始向英国提供人道主义援助。

“The Rest Is History”播客本周用三集节目讲述了这个故事，你可以在这里找到：这里，这里和这里。非常迷人和有趣。强烈推荐（感谢彭博观点同事利亚姆·丹宁向我推荐）。祝你周末愉快。

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