土耳其里拉（TRY）在中央银行行长埃尔坎辞职的压力下受到影响-彭博社

Turkey’s commitment to orthodox economic policies that made it an investor favorite will be put to the test after central bank governor Hafize Gaye Erkan resigned on Friday.

While the resignation did not come as a shock — pressure has been building for weeks amid local media reports on allegations that her family was involved in the central bank’s affairs — the lira weakened on the news. It dropped as much as 0.8% versus the dollar before paring losses, and was on track to the weakest level on record.

阅读更多： 土耳其央行行长突然辞职，政策转向

Erkan had been appointed in June, along with Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, to lead an investor-friendly overhaul of Turkey’s economic policies. That included raising interest rates aggressively and letting the currency trade more freely in an effort to attract foreign investment. Simsek said the economic program will continue without disruption, and initial investor reaction suggests they largely expect continuity, though not without some volatility.

Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Jefferies

• “她辞职并不完全令人震惊，因为在当地媒体报道指控她的家人涉及央行事务的压力持续数周，而且里拉在这一消息传出后出现了疲软。对美元汇率下跌了多达0.8%，然后减少了损失，并且正朝着创纪录的最低水平发展。”
• “我预计央行将继续努力维护其信誉并坚持目前的道路”

Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management

• 央行承诺保持政策利率高，甚至进一步提高利率，“以遏制通货膨胀”是关键
• “仍然觉得土耳其需要更多经济痛苦，才会重新投资于他们的本地债券”

奥伦·巴拉克，纽约安联全球合伙人固定收益部门董事总经理

• “埃尔多安拥有重大控制权，辞职很可能是总统和央行行长之间分歧的迹象”
• “我们可以预期土耳其里拉和债券价格会更加波动”
  • 这些“在短期和中期内相当负面”

帕特里克·埃斯特鲁拉斯，迈阿密EMSO资产管理研究主管

• “我认为货币政策不太可能出现转变”
  • 辛谢克“继续对所有经济政策杠杆拥有广泛控制，得到总统埃尔多安的广泛支持，并有望任命一位可靠的人来接替她”
• “埃尔坎因个人原因提交了辞呈，并与她的政策选择无关”

尼克·施塔德米勒，纽约美德利全球顾问产品主管

• “我怀疑这些变化对货币政策的走向会产生多大影响”
• “加息周期已经结束，我无法想象新行长会考虑进一步提高利率。唯一的问题是总统会允许政策保持如此严格多久
  • 预计央行“将面临压力，从今年夏天开始放松政策 - 这可能在政治上是方便的，但对政策的可信度来说将是一场灾难”
• “投资者可能会乐见央行迎来一位不带有如此多个人包袱的新面孔”