古拉尔奇克：波兰在“冷战思维”作用下，还能与中国合作吗？-波格丹·古拉尔奇克

波兰是中东欧地区最大的经济体，也是陆上“一带一路”和中欧班列的关键枢纽。然而，随着新冠疫情的暴发和俄乌冲突等影响，中波关系呈恶化的趋势。作为欧洲东部的一个重要门户国家，波兰与中国关系未来何去何从，也将对中欧关系起到重要影响。

近日，波兰前驻泰国兼菲律宾和缅甸大使、华沙大学国际关系教授和中国问题专家波格丹·古拉尔奇克（Bogdan Goralczyk）接受了北京国际对话俱乐部发起人、观察者网特约主持人韩桦的专访，进一步探讨了对“一带一路”的建议，坦率地表达自己对中波关系未来发展趋势的看法，并讨论了俄乌冲突，北约峰会等热点问题。

他特别强调称，中国是波兰人的朋友。而因历史和地缘政治因素，波兰与美国的关系将是“坚不可摧的”，这意味着大国博弈背景下的波兰对华双边关系将面临更多挑战。

采访视频

以下为部分专访实录：

【采访/韩桦，编辑、翻译/观察者网 李泽西】

观察者网：6月26日，您在“‘一带一路’为中波关系注入新动力”智库媒体对话会上提到，各国似乎不再认为““笨蛋，关键是经济”（it’s the economy, stupid）”，“安全”的概念正日益占据核心位置。这一趋势在各国是如何体现的，对全球贸易和全球化意味着什么？

**古拉尔奇克：**在过去的三十多年里，我们所有人，波兰人、欧洲人和中国人，都遵从“笨蛋，关键是经济”的原则，有些中国人甚至会贬称之为“拜金主义”，这其中可能也包括腐败现象，当然这是另一个话题了。

总得来说，我们都接受了自由开放的市场和全球化的原则。经过最近几年的经历，主要是新冠疫情，以及俄乌冲突，现在情况有变，挑战正在加剧。我们已经在喊另一个口号“笨蛋，关键是安全”，欧盟和中国都不例外。

中国发布的许多官方报告和文件中，提到20多种“安全”，包括粮食安全、水资源安全、能源安全、太空安全、网络安全等等。因此，中国和欧盟都处在一个“新时代”下，在以安全为首的新时代下。

一方面，这是中波双边关系的一个挑战。另一方面，这是一个进行深度讨论的机会，商量如何一起解决诸如气候和环境等人类共同问题，因为环境和气候问题不止步于国界。

在1999年，欧安组织（OSCE）定义了一个新术语，即合作安全，认为全人类面临共同的挑战，不管是中国人、美国人还是欧洲人。美国总统气候特使克里16日到北京了，欧盟也应派遣特别代表，因为气候一定是双方可以共同解决的问题。环境问题也很重要。

观察者网：您指出人类正面临一个需要全球解决方案的全球性挑战的时代。一些学者认为，我们正处于一个“去全球化”的时代，国家间的紧张关系和壁垒日益加剧。您对此有何看法？您认为我们可以通过什么样的机制或切实可行的方案来解决这些全球性挑战？

**古拉尔奇克：**至少自1992年弗朗西斯·福山出版《历史的终结》以来，我们都接受了全球化的力量。中国的发展路线有些不同，邓小平说要“韬光养晦”，这和西方的想法不太一样。不过，中国在时任国务院总理朱镕基的推动下积极参与了全球市场化进程，于2001年加入世界贸易组织。

2001年11月11日，中国正式签署加入世贸组织的协议（图源：央视网）

不幸的是，情况变了。我们开始讨论去全球化，而不是全球化。有些人提出更激进的想法，认为应直接“脱钩”，断开双边联系，价值链等。欧洲的态度是，应该用另一个术语“去风险化”，这稍微好一点，虽然仍然是合作的阻碍，但脱钩就基本上等于开战了，而“去风险化”不排除在许多议题上展开深度探讨。

澳大利亚前总理、现驻美国大使陆克文担心亚太地区会爆发真正的战争。我强烈支持他去年出版的《可避免的战争》中提出的概念，就是战略竞争是可以的，但应该是“管理框架下的战略竞争”：即便处在对立面，但我们应该保持沟通对话，双边关系应该是受控的，因为我们面前有许多全球性挑战。我们有机会合作并取得成功。

在中东欧，中国—中东欧合作机制是前国务院总理温家宝于2012年在波兰华沙正式启动的，我当时亲自参加他的演讲。那个时代真的不一样，当时大家对未来潜在的合作、投资和机遇充满憧憬，一切都是新的，中国也是所有人的新伙伴。然而，这一情况早在2014年就已经发生了变化，东欧17国（观察者网注：指“中国—中东欧国家合作机制”）之间立场差异愈发明显。

一些国家保持之前的积极态度，比如匈牙利、塞尔维亚和希腊等，希望深化与中国的经济合作。但是，也有一些国家，先是波罗的海三国，后有波兰和罗马尼亚国，与美国盟友关系越来越紧密，因为对国家安全的担忧。波兰的邻国乌克兰正处于战争状态，我们因此有一种“战壕心理”，看问题“非黑即白”，甚至有冷战思维。

因此，我认为中欧内部没有任何凝聚的力量，反而有许多不同的力量正在分裂我们。这是为什么我非常期待第三次“一带一路”峰会，因为我期待中国将三大倡议——全球发展倡议、安全倡议和文明倡议——结合起来，这过程中或许会产生一些新的东西，甚至因此出现新的倡议。

观察者网：您在“‘一带一路’为中波关系注入新动力”智库媒体对话会上提到，“一带一路”倡议面临的一个挑战是，许多中国企业更愿意收购现有企业，而波兰等国则更希望中国进行绿地投资。您认为双方能做些什么来改变投资者的心态或方式？

6月26日，古拉尔奇克在“‘一带一路’为中波关系注入新动力”智库媒体对话会上致辞（图源：中国驻波兰大使馆）

**古拉尔奇克：**中波有10年双边合作经验。波兰的投资者，不管来自哪个地区，都对绿地投资更感兴趣，从零开始投资，而不是收购或并购，但至少在过去一段时间内，后者才是中国企业更青睐的方式。中东欧地区整体也更期待绿地投资，比如中国企业在匈牙利建设的电动汽车电池工厂，这是一笔巨大的投资。我们也应该对新提议与项目持开放态度。

当然，双边合作也需要考虑两个新的因素。首先是气候变化影响，因为这是一个愈发严峻的问题。匈牙利工厂项目就凸显了这一点。我们现在需要清洁能源成为解决方案的一部分。

另一个方面是我们对新冠疫情的记忆。我们十分欢迎中方提出的一些健康倡议。我们需要寻找新的合作议程，中东欧各国肯定也持不同的立场。但波兰至关重要，因为我们介于俄罗斯和德国之间，而德国与中国的双边关系对波兰来说也非常重要。

德国与中国的“16+1”（观察者网注：中国—中东欧国家合作机制）中大多中东欧国家都是欧盟成员。因此，投资也需要考虑欧盟的要求，特别是涉及生态、环境和气候方面的要求。我们期待新的绿地投资。

波兰还期待继续推进中欧班列，主要将四川成都等地，通过火车，经过波兰，抵达德国和西欧。波兰期待对铁路系统进行现代化改造。

**观察者网：**您认为波兰未来在“一带一路”倡议中将扮演什么样的角色？

**古拉尔奇克：**所有人，特别是中国和东亚地区的观察人士，都期待着第三次“一带一路”峰会的成果，我相信到时候会提出一些新的倡议。波兰现在正深深卷入俄乌冲突，我们是西方各国的重要沟通和交通枢纽。我们期待战争结束，到那时，当乌克兰开始重建并吸纳投资时，我们可以与中国开展更多的合作。但此时，冲突双方都不愿意进行谈判，想继续打仗。

最后，波兰也将受德国出台的中国战略白皮书的影响，因为德国的举措肯定会对波兰方面产生影响。同样重要的是，波兰是一个民主国家，已经在为10月中旬的选举进行竞选活动了。波兰和美国一样，政治非常撕裂。选举结果将对波兰的国际行为产生非常强烈的影响。不过，我们也有党派共识，即无论选举结果如何发生什么，波兰与美国的关系都将是坚不可摧的，波兰将一直是北约的忠实成员。

观察者网：俄乌冲突对“一带一路”倡议有何影响？通过波兰的陆上丝绸之路也经过俄罗斯，那么战争对波兰在“一带一路”中扮演的角色又有何影响？

2022年中欧班列线路图（图源：百运网）

**古拉尔奇克：**中欧班列是我们与中国双边关系非常重要的构成部分。我们很担心俄乌冲突将对合作构成巨大障碍。中欧班列南线途径乌克兰，因此此刻没有被使用。但幸运的是，中欧班列整体仍在运行，这是因为白俄罗斯没有直接参战，在我们两国的边境附近，中欧班列最重要的枢纽马拉舍维奇正在运行中。

我们熬过了最艰难的时期，希望冲突后这扇门能全面敞开。但是，期望值不能太高，因为不幸的是，不确定性无处不在。

观察者网：波兰对乌克兰的支持力度似乎仍有上限，近期甚至暂时禁止了乌克兰的谷物进口。这是否反映了波兰出于实际考虑而正在调整立场？

**古拉尔奇克：**现在问题不只是在谷物，还有树莓。首先，自俄乌冲突开始以来，波兰已接纳了600万乌克兰人。其中，至少一百五十万妇女和儿童留了下来。这是一个巨大的挑战，因为在这场战争之前，波兰二战以来一直是个单一民族的国家，超过98%的公民是波兰人，我们没有像中国那样的55个少数民族。这对所有波兰人来说都是一个新的挑战，涉及教育系统、劳动力、社会保障系统等，仍有争议。

幸运的是，到目前为止，波兰人对乌克兰人没有偏见，因为我们意识到这些人是真正的难民，他们真的面临战争，我们需要帮助他们。这也不是政府要求人们做的，而是波兰公民自发的行为。

其次，波兰将乌克兰的利益视为自己的利益。波兰的战略传统认为，没有乌克兰的俄罗斯就只是俄罗斯联邦。但是当俄罗斯再次与乌克兰合为一国时，它将不再是俄罗斯联邦，而是俄罗斯帝国，且与波兰直接接壤。中国有过百年国耻，波兰则经历了一百多年被俄罗斯帝国占领的经历。我们不希望俄罗斯再次成为一个帝国，出现于我们的整个东部边境线上。

第三个维度是双边经贸关系。就此，我们与欧盟再度有分歧。欧盟想要尽可能获得更多的乌克兰粮食和农产品，但这些农产品都泛滥在波兰的市场上，造成一些令人头痛的问题。

4月，波兰农民抗议粮价活动（图源：BBC）

观察者网：从长远来看，您认为波兰应对俄罗斯采取什么样的立场？

**古拉尔奇克：**不管发生什么，我们都将继续是西方阵营的一员，这也意味着我们与中国的双边关系将面临更多挑战，因为美国和中国正在进行大国博弈。对于波兰来说，北约是唯一能保证我们安全的组织，我们无法指望中国或其他国家，比如印度，来给我们提供任何安全保证。在第一个问题中，我曾提到现在全世界正在经历各方面的“安全化”，波兰也非常缺乏安全感。不只是我一个人预测波兰与中国的关系将会不太顺利。

但是，我们希望，当俄乌冲突结束后，我们可以重回经贸关系，共同应对气候变化，探索一些合作领域。正如我所提到的，波兰与东边的俄罗斯之间关系断裂，但西边的德国正继续与中国合作。波兰不支持脱钩，但可能支持“去风险化”，这个新术语在今年3月开始被启用，在波兰也很流行。

中国是波兰“邻居的邻居”，因此根据波兰人的思维，中国就是我们的朋友，这是波兰的一个“成语”。我认为，双边关系短期内会面临多重不利因素，但只要俄乌冲突能结束，我对未来还是比较乐观的。

观察者网：波兰一边要处理与东边的俄罗斯的关系，一边与欧盟的关系也并非“完美”，过去经常与匈牙利联合否决欧盟的某些决定。然而，在俄乌战争爆发后，波兰和匈牙利两国似乎渐行渐远。您认为两国未来能否恢复以前的亲密关系吗？波兰与欧盟的关系又将如何发展？

**古拉尔奇克：**实际情况要复杂得多。在1990年代，我曾在匈牙利布达佩斯工作过将近十年。波兰政府与匈牙利政府的做法区别较大。匈牙利总理欧尔班已就任13年，在2010年当选后不久，几乎立刻宣布“东方开放”（Keleti Nyitás）政策，意思是与俄罗斯、中国、中亚国家、印度、日本（如果可能的话）开展伙伴关系，但主要是中国和俄罗斯。他正在延续这一政策。

在最近举行的维尔纽斯北约峰会上，欧尔班在多项问题上持有的反对立场，也有别于欧盟其他任何国家。在俄乌冲突背景下，欧尔班在继续推行这一政策，造成匈牙利与波兰之间的重大立场分歧。

欧尔班出席维尔纽斯北约峰会（图源：波兰通讯社）

因此，就北约框架下的安全问题上，匈牙利、波兰、捷克和斯洛伐克四个国家组成的维谢格拉德集团四国合作机制已陷入停滞。

但另一方面，在维尔纽斯北约首脑峰会的前一周，欧盟也有过一次首脑会议。在欧盟峰会期间，波兰和匈牙利在难民和其他一些问题上与欧盟整体持不同的意见。因此，就欧盟议题而言，波兰仍然像过去一样与匈牙利继续合作，欧盟一直称两国都“没有遵守法治”。

这一局势至少将维持到波兰今年十月的大选，因为民意调查显示执政党和反对党都有可能获胜。

总的来说，波兰和匈牙利一边有分歧，但同时仍在合作。不过，总得来说，维谢格拉德集团四国合作机制运行不太顺利。我之前提到的中国—中东欧国家合作机制也是如此，中东欧地区各国之间分歧的力量比较大。

我也希望能推动合作，但我担心合作在短期内是不现实的，因为现在存在“文明冲突”，“用拳头说话”的国际政治环境，以及修昔底德陷阱——据我所知，格雷厄姆·艾利森的书在中国也很知名。在当下强权政治的国际环境下，匈牙利与波兰的立场截然相反，匈牙利的安全观与波兰完全不同。

在北约内部，欧尔班与土耳其总统埃尔多安关系紧密，以至于他此前一直在等待土耳其就是否批准瑞典加入北约做出决定，埃尔多安最终宣布将批准瑞典的申请后，欧尔班才跟进。

北约成员国地图，淡蓝为即将加入的瑞典（图源：CBS新闻）

我认为波兰与匈牙利的关系未来可能进一步恶化，尤其是如果反对派在10月大选中获胜，因为波兰的反对派不仅支持美国，也支持欧盟，与匈牙利和现任波兰政府的态度相反。

需要注意的是，实际上并不存在一个所谓的“波兰立场”。波兰立场是什么，取决于你的政治理念，在同一个问题上，不同人会有截然不同的答案。当然，波兰两党都支持北约以及与美国的联盟，但就波兰与德国、法国、西欧、欧盟等关系，波兰党派之间又有分歧了。

观察者网：让我们谈谈欧盟对中国的态度。欧盟对中国的态度似乎是存在一定矛盾的：一方面将中国定位为系统性竞争对手，并强调要“去风险化”，另一方面希望促进经贸合作。这两种立场能否共存？欧洲最终会有一个统一的对华战略吗？

**古拉尔奇克：**欧盟也承认，自己没有统一的立场，不同的国家、不同的政党，就有不同的看法和态度。在我看来，德国和法国对华的看法，对中国和中波双边关系是至关重要的。此外，法国总统马克龙强烈支持与华关系，这也在波兰和欧洲引发了一定争议。

德国最近发布了首个对华战略书，因为对我来说，这将是一个指南针，告诉我们中欧关系下一步将如何发展。初步看来，白皮书更加强调竞争和对手关系，意味着中欧关系将变得更加困难。

有些人说，中国是欧盟的系统性竞争对手。既然我们是民主国家，就会有五花八门的声音，有人会说中国是合作伙伴，有人说中国是我们问题的“解决方案”，有人说中国是竞争对手，有人说中国是挑战，甚至有人说中国是威胁。

我深信，因为俄乌冲突，德国和法国都失去了俄罗斯市场，而北溪一号和二号也不再存在了。单凭这个原因，德国和法国，甚至一定程度上包括意大利和西班牙，都无法割舍同中国的贸易和商业关系。既然他们已经失去俄罗斯市场，他们就不能失去中国市场了。因此，我比较乐观，认为中欧可以在一定框架内继续合作。

以下为部分英文采访原文：

Guancha: You had mentioned in June that the emphasis of the world no longer seems to be purely “it’s the economy, stupid”, as the concept of “security” increasingly takes center stage. How is this trend manifested around the world, and what does this mean for global trade and globalization?

Goralczyk: In at least the previous three decades, all of us, citizens of Poland or European Union, also mainland China, we were, like it or not, under the one slogan, “it’s the economy, stupid”. Some people in China even say that it was “拜金主义”, but this is another story about corruption.

But we were under the dominion of market forces, open markets, globalization forces. After recent events and experiences, mostly the Covid pandemic, and recently what China is calling the Ukrainian crisis, we have a new situation, and the demand and the challenge is growing. We are already under another slogan, another banner: “it’s the security, stupid”.

This is both in European Union and in China. When I see your documents, you have probably 20 or more securities to fight for. So you have food security, water security, energy security, fossil fuel security, space security, cyber security and so on and so forth. In this respect, we are living once again, both in China and the European Union in “新时代”, because we have security as the most demanding issue on our daily agenda.

On the one hand, this is a tremendous challenge, it is a problem, it is a hardship in our bilateral relationship of Poland and China for instance. On the other hand, this is a chance for us to start to talk seriously, to start in depth debates, what we can do together concerning climate, environmental issues, for instance, because environment and climate doesn’t recognize borderlines between the countries, between states. We need to do something together.

In 1999, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe defined a new term, a cooperative security that we have so called global challenges, challenges for the whole humankind. Doesn’t matter if you are Chinese, American or European. And in this respect, we need to find a common solutions. We have no other choice. Mr Kerry is coming to Beijing. We need to send a special representatives of the European Union because climate is definitely the issue we can find together. Environmental issues are also very important in this respect.

Guancha: You and other scholars have stressed that we face an era of global challenges that require global solutions.  Some scholars argued that we are in an era of “de-globalization”, with increased tensions and barriers erected between countries. Some argued that BRI is the right path to a new globalization. what is your take on this, and why? What do you think are practical mechanisms and solutions for solving these global challenges?

Goralcyzk: For a long time, at least since 1990s and Francis Fukuyama’s famous “The End of History”, we were under the globalization forces’ dominion. China was going a little bit differently due to Deng Xiaoping saying “韬光养晦”, this was a little bit different than all the western word. But still, China was, under Prime minister Zhu Rongji, very strongly engaged in the global marketization, global forces. And China joined in 2001 WTO. So you were also part of this process.

And unfortunately, like it or not, the situation, the circumstances has changed. We had unexpected and very harsh experience with the Covid Pandemic, and right now, we have a real war, unseen since the Second World War, very close to Polish borders. In this respect, we are starting to talk about the de-globalization, not globalization. And some people say that we should go even farther to decouple, to close our connections, connectivities, value chains and so on.

However, I suppose that the Western European approach recently observed that instead of decouple, we should use another term. De-risking is a little bit better. It is still an issue. It is still a problem, it is still a challenge for both sides. However, decoupling is almost a direct war. De-risking is not excluding a dialogue, in depth dialogue of many issues.

I’m quoting Kevin Rudd, former prime minister and foreign Minister of Australia, currently since this year, ambassador of Australia to the US. Surprisingly but not surprisingly for me, he is afraid of a real war in Asia Pacific. In his recent volume, “The War is Avoidable”, he is proposing strategic competition, but managed strategic competition, for which I am voting for, me personally as Bogdan Goralczyk. We are on the opposite sides, but we should continue our dialogue and it should be manageable because we have many global challenges in front of us. And here we have a chance to cooperate and be successful on both sides.

China - Central and Eastern Europe Cooperation, as we know, it was inaugurated by the former prime minister Wen Jiabao in 2012 here in Poland, in Warsaw. I was personally attending his speech at that time. We were in a different time because it was expectation of the new engagement, new involvement, new investment, new opportunities. Everything was new. And China was also a new partner for all of us. However, already in 2014, this situation has changed and we have more and more discrepancies because we have differentiation between the 16 or 17.

On the one hand, you have those countries which are following the footsteps of the previous era, namely Hungary, Serbia, Greece, which are open for further economic cooperation with China. On the other hand, especially the three small Baltic states but followed by for instance, Poland and Romania, we are more and more close allies of the United States of America because of the security reasons. Like it or not, we have a real war on our immediate neighborhood here in Poland. And we have a war mentality, black and white scenarios here. We have Cold War approach.

From this perspective, I do not see any convergence forces inside of Central Europe. I see a lot of divergent forces which are splitting us, dividing us. And for this reason, definitely I am the person who is strongly waiting for the 3rd summit meeting of Belt and Road Initiative, because I’m expecting personally that China will combine your recent three Big Initiatives, Development Initiative, Global Development Initiatives, Security Initiative and Civilization Initiative, and maybe as a merger, as a fusion, something new will emerge and maybe you will have a new proposal.

Guancha: One challenge that the BRI faces, as you noted, is that a number of Chinese firms prefer to take over existing firms, while Poland and other countries would much rather China make brand new investments. What do you think both sides can do to change the mindset or the method of investment?

Goralcyzk: As we have 10 years of experience of our mutual bilateral cooperation, it is visible that our investors, doesn’t matter which part of our region, are more interested in so called green field investments, with the investment starting from the very beginning, instead of fusion and mergers, which were at least for some time a preferable solution by the Chinese side. So we have a different approach. And definitely here in Poland but also in our region, we are rather expecting some new investment.

You propose something right now in Hungary, for instance, this electric car batteries factory, which is a huge investment. Definitely, we need to be open for the new proposals. And when you propose something, even the new investment, we need to include two new dimensions into our corporation. First is climate change expectations, because this is a real story and growing and demanding. On the other hand, this is the case of Hungary right now already with this new investment, ecology and environmental issues. Clean energy is needed and we are expecting something from the clean energy sector to be a part of the solution.

Another dimension is taking into account our harsh memories from the last time, namely the Covid Pandemic. Some health initiatives in the health sector is also definitely welcome from the Chinese side. We need to search for the new agenda of our cooperation. And here definitely there will be some different approaches from the countries in our region. However, Poland is crucial because we are between Russia and Germany. And definitely what Germany will do in a bilateral relationship with China is also very important for us.

And of course, most of the 16+1 Central and Eastern European partners of China are the members of the European Union. So their requirements, especially ecological, environmental and climate requirements of the European Union need to be taken into account as well.

We are open here in Poland also for continuation, we have trains connection with Sichuan, Chengdu, and it is mostly going through Poland on the land, and going to Germany and Western Europe. Here we are also open and we are ready for modernization of this sector.

Guancha: What do you think will be Poland’s place in the BRI going forwards, given both the challenges and opportunities that we have discussed?

Goralcyzk: Everyone, especially the observers of China and East Asia region is expecting the results of the BRI 3rd Summit. I am convinced that there will be some new proposals. Poland is as a country right now deeply engaged and involved into the war in Ukraine. We are very important connection, communication, transportation hub for all western partners, Western European, NATO member states and also US. This is all obvious. So what I would say that we are expecting the end of war on our neighborhood. And at that time, when Ukraine will start hopefully to be renovate it again and start to be reinvested, we can do something more with China. During the war, our openness is narrow because we are under this mentality of Cold War and war mentality.

Second, when will the war end in Ukraine? We hope that as soon as possible. But as we see, both sides of the conflict are not declaring that they are open for negotiations. They are ready to fight. Unfortunately, both Russians and Ukrainians. So we don’t know when they the war will end.

And finally, we are expecting also here in Poland the new Germany strategy towards China. Much of Poland’s trade volume is with Germany alone. So what Germany is doing will have an impact on Polish side, definitely. And finally, last but not least, Poland is as a democratic country, we are already in election campaign. We will have a new elections in mid of October. And Poland is like US, strongly polarized. We are divided also. It will have a very strong impact on our international behavior.

Guancha: What has been the effect of the Russia-Ukraine War on the BRI, especially Poland’s place in it, given that parts of the railway passes through Russia?

Goralcyzk: I already mentioned about this railway. We understand, at least those who are engaged in international affairs, that this is a very important aspect of our bilateral relationship with China, these trains. We were openly afraid that the war and Russian engagement, Ukrainian engagement, will be an enormous obstacle for this cooperation.

In the case of Ukraine, it is partially. So the southern lines of these trains are not working. But fortunately, the trains are mostly still going, because Belarus is not engaged directly into the conflict yet, so we have direct connection with Belarus. And on the borderline, the most important hub, Małaszewicze, is open. So we survived the most demanding times. And let’s hope that we will have these open gates after the war. During the war, you cannot expect too much because the uncertainty is everywhere, unfortunately.

Guancha: It seems that Poland’s support for Ukraine is still with its limits, even temporarily banning Ukrainian grain imports a few weeks ago. Does this reflect an evolving of its broader position, in response to practical concerns?

Goralcyzk: You are asking me about the problems with Polish relationship with Ukraine, and you mentioned grain. We have not only grain, we have raspberry right now. But I will define it a different way. First of all, what is important and what should be shared also with the Chinese audience, Poland is the country which absorbed more than 6 million Ukrainian inhabitants. Since the beginning of the crisis management situation, more than 6 million Ukrainians crossed our borders. At least one million and a half out of them, many women and young children are staying.

This is a tremendous challenge because Poland, until this war, was homogeneous country. More than 98% of the citizens were Polish. We have no 55 minorities like in a People’s Republic of China. We have right now finally a minority like prior to the Second World War.

And this is a new challenge for all of us, for our educational system, for our working force, for our Social Security net. And we have a debate. Fortunately, until now, we have no prejudice towards the Ukrainians because we realize that those are real refugees, that they are really fighting and we need to help them. And it was not government initiated proposal. It was bottom up behavior of Polish citizens. We have shown again that Poland is the cradle of Solidarity. And this is the most important thing in our relationship with Ukraine.

Secondly, we are fighting for Ukrainian interest like for our own. We have polish strategic tradition which says as follows: Russia without Ukraine, Russia separated from Ukraine is Russian Federation proper. But when Russia will be united with Ukraine again, it will be not Russian Federation, it will be Russian Empire again on our borders. You have “百年国耻”, or 100 years of humiliation. We have more than 100 years of invasions by the Russia as the Empire. And we would like not to have Russia as an empire, as an our immediate neighbor on the whole borderline.

And finally, the third dimension is our bilateral trade. Here we have discrepancies, again, division lines because we have European Union policy. European Union as an independent player is mostly trade, where it is a big power. On the other hand, it is soft power. But in this respect, we need here in Warsaw, here in Poland to adjust ourselves to the requirements of the European Union. And sometimes it doesn’t work because European Union want as much as possible the Ukrainian Grains, Ukrainian fruits, food items, agriculture items, while Poland is invaded by them and has some headaches, some problems because of this.

Guancha:  In the long term, what do you think Poland’s position towards Russia will be?

Goralcyzk: We will remain, whatever happens, a part of western alliance, which means that our bilateral relationship with the People’s Republic of China will be more demanding and more difficult, because I realize that we have clash of powers, big power clash between the US and China, like it or not. And we see US And NATO as the only security guarantee. We cannot expect that China or someone else, India, for instance, will come and give us any security guarantees.

In my first response to your first question, that we have security surrounding us in all aspects, in all dimensions, we are feeling ourselves insecure. And for this reason, I am predicting and I am not alone, definitely not, that our relationship, bilateral relationship with Chinese Mainland will be troubled. But we hope that when the war will be over, we can go back to our trade relationship, to climate change. We can specify some issues, some dimensions, some fields of cooperation. And as I mentioned, we are still closed on the one side with Russia, but on the other side with Germany. And Germany, as you know, is trying to be engaged. Now, we are not for decoupling, we are maybe for the de-risking. Yes, this is a new term, as you know, from March this year, very fashionable also here in Poland.

We should avoid something strange. And China is neighbor of our neighbor. So by definition, you are our friend, neighbor of our neighbor is our friend. This is a Polish 成语, if you wish. In this respect, I am predicting some obstacles, barriers and hardships, but I’m rather optimistic on one condition: let’s stop the war. Let’s stop the fighting.

Guancha: Poland used to frequently join with Hungary to veto certain decisions by the EU. However, it appears that the two have increasingly drifted apart after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War. Do you think the two will return to its previously close relationship? What about Poland’s relationship with the EU?

Goralcyzk: Here situation is much more complicated than in your question. I spent almost a decade of 1990s in Budapest, Hungary. And from this perspective, we see, and you see even from Beijing or Shanghai, that Polish authorities and Hungarian authorities are behaving themselves differently. Mr Orban, who led the country for some 13 years when he came to his strong power in 2010, almost immediately declared so called Keleti Nyitás or the eastern Bound, the Eastern Partnership, meaning partnership with Russia, with China, Central Asian states, also India, Japan if possible, but mainly China and Russia. And he is continuing this policy.

As you see even the in recent summit meeting in Vilnius, his opposition was different than all the others from the European Union. So when the clash and war and crisis situation has happened between Russian in Ukraine, Mr Orban is continuing this policy and we have a clash between Budapest and Warsaw. We are on the opposite side of the barricade, we are ally within NATO in Warsaw, while Mr Orban is continuing his cooperation with Mr Putin and Russian Federation. So in a security dimension concerning NATO, a Visegrad cooperation of four countries, Hungary, Poland, Czechia and Slovakia is in a refrigerator. It is frozen.

But on the other hand, prior to the Vilnius NATO Summit meeting, a week before, we had a EU summit meeting. During the EU summit meeting, Poland and Hungary together had different opinion concerning refugees and some other issues than the European union, European institutions starting from commission and the parliament. So when the European integration is concerned, Poland is still cooperating as previously with Mr Orban because both countries are not observing, according to the authorities in Brussels, the dimensions and demands of the rule of law. So we have a problem with the European Union. And here we have a common position, at least until the election in Poland in mid October, because public opinion polls shows that nobody knows who will be the winner.

In this respect, I would say that Poland and Hungary on one side have split, on the other side are still cooperating. But altogether combined, Visegrad is not working well, like 16+1 also collapsed to some extent because I mentioned to you in one of my previous answers that we have these divergent forces and differentiation between the states in our region.

I would like to have close cooperation, but I suspect that it is impossible as for now, because we have this clash of civilizations, we have a hard power politics, we have a structural Thucydides trap (as far as I know, Graham Allison books is also popular and known in China). We have a power politics and in this respect, Mr Orban is in the opposite side. He sees his security different way than Poland. Within NATO, Mr Orban is strictly linked for instance, with Recep Erdogan, with Turkey to such an extent that his he was expecting what Turkey would do with the NATO membership of Sweden, as you know. And when Erdogan finally declared that Turkey will allow Sweden to participate and be a member, only then did Mr Orban follow the footsteps. But we are still waiting for the voting in Hungarian parliament, which will not take place definitely during the summer season, only later this year in autumn. And you who knows what will happen in two or three months time. We have a very dynamic situation in our immediate neighborhood. In this respect, I’m rather expecting turbulent relationship, especially if the opposition wins, because Polish opposition is not only pro US, it’s also pro EU, while current Polish government and Mr Orban have a lot of headaches, a lot of problems unresolved and a lot of barriers with the European Union.

By the way, when you are asking a question like this, be careful not to say a Polish side. There’s no Polish side. It depends to which political tribe you belong to. And you will have on the same question very different answers, maybe with the exception of NATO and US alliance, but all the others, especially relationship with Germany, with France, with Western Europe, with the European Union, with even trans-Atlantic relationship. Here you have divergence again.

Guancha: Let’s talk about EU’s approach towards China. It seems to me that EU, not necessarily dividing between west and east, has contradictory approaches dealing with China: de-risking and positioning China as systemic rival on one hand, promoting trade and economic cooperation on the other, can these two approaches coexist? Will Europe have a coherent strategy at the end of the day?

Goalcyzk: You have no unified European Union. You have different countries. You have different political parties, you have different opinions, you have different attitudes. To my mind, what is crucial for China and also for our bilateral relationship is the final answer of Germany and France, what to do currently with relationship with China. As you know, Mr Macron is strongly supporting it, which was a reason for big debate here in Poland and in Europe.

Germany prepared its first strategy towards China. For me, it is a kind of a compass, a strategic direction what to do next.

I’m deeply convinced that, like it or not, due to the recent events, especially on the Ukrainian territory, both Germany but also France lost Russia as a market, Nord Stream does not exist anymore, and for only this reason, both Germany and France and partially even Italy or Spain, they cannot just manage to lose strong trade and business relationship with China. When the Russian market is lost, Chinese market cannot be lost. So I am quite optimistic here in this respect. I am expecting some kind of engagement, but conditional, partial. As you know, some people say that China is our systemic rival, we are democratic countries. One person will say China is a partner, China is a solution. China is a competitor, China is a challenge. For some even China is a threat. And we have different opinions here.

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