周波：沙特伊朗协议是中国担当全球中立斡旋者的第一步

【文/周波，译/蒋绍澄，核译/韩桦】

中国在伊朗和沙特之间的成功斡旋不仅具有里程碑意义，而且促使人们期望值更高：中国能否在世界其他地方也提供类似的协助？

在中东，人们有时会说， “敌人的敌人未必是我的朋友”。这里需要北京帮忙解决的麻烦不胜枚举。基于不结盟和不干涉内政的原则，中国是唯一与该地区所有国家都交好的大国，因此有可能在当下更为紧迫的伊核问题上伸出援手。

据五角大楼透露，德黑兰的核武器发展令人关注：伊朗现在有能力在短短12天内制造出足够的核弹材料。

特朗普政府在2018年退出伊核协议，目前拜登政府与伊朗就重启核协议的谈判也陷入了僵局。作为2015年促成伊核协议的重要一方，北京或许可以像撮合沙伊协议一样，先秘密地劝说德黑兰不要逾越制造核弹的雷池，之后再召集包括华盛顿在内的想法类似的各利益攸关方与德黑兰重启谈判，以达成一个新的协议。

相比之下，乌克兰局势更加错综复杂，中国的两个朋友在互相掐架，无人知道战争会僵持多久，只知道一时半会它不可能消停。

中国在沙特与伊朗间成功斡旋，也有望在俄乌冲突中发挥建设性作用（图源：南华早报）

目前的挑战是找到和平协议的基础—无论它是涉及俄罗斯无条件撤出乌克兰，还是进行领土谈判和让步。

俄罗斯希望的，想必是能至少宣称取得些许胜利。否则，俄罗斯总统普京难以解释为什么要发动这场战争。

乌克兰总统泽连斯基在2月时说，如果盟国能信守诺言，乌克兰就能取得胜利。这意味着，如果这场战争变成一场旷日持久的消耗战，确实存在乌克兰的盟友们不履行承诺的风险。

或许，这场战争会以签订类似于当年南北朝鲜都不情愿签署的停战协定而告终。但不同之处在于，由于俄罗斯比乌克兰更强大，因此边界不管划在哪，最终都更难稳固。

很难说欧洲的新安全架构将会是什么样子，但俄罗斯和北约之间必须进行谈判。

核心问题是如何解决俄罗斯的不安全感。北约说没有强迫其他国家加入是事实，但北约自冷战结束后的持续扩张，事实上适得其反。

如果莫斯科认定北约的扩张对俄罗斯构成了生存威胁，以至于它不得不使用武力来回击，那么，北约越受欢迎，欧洲就会变得越不安全。这个包含着一批世界强国的最大军事联盟自诩为自卫组织，实在是荒唐可笑。

就像在中东一样，中国是唯一能在俄乌战争中发挥建设性作用的大国。当其他大国都站在乌克兰一边时，北京既没有与莫斯科结盟，同时也与基辅保持友好关系。中国没有提供任何军事支持，但仍拥有俄罗斯的信任。

基辅可能会欢迎北京发挥中立斡旋者的作用。2013年12月，时任乌克兰总统亚努科维奇访问北京期间，中国宣布不会对乌克兰使用或威胁使用核武器，并宣布当第三方有任何此类威胁时为乌克兰提供安全保障。

北京在战争一周年之际宣布的十二点和平方案，是继冲突爆发以来所持的谨慎平衡立场之上，向前迈出的一大步。十二点和平方案中的内容很难被挑战质疑，如所有各方需要尊重主权、保持理性和克制，要把有效保护平民放在首位等。

但是，在俄乌都没有表现出停战倾向的情况下，和平方案不能保证会取得成功。2022年，泽连斯基甚至签署了一项法令，禁止与普京进行任何谈判。此外，国际刑事法院最近对普京发出的逮捕令也使停火的希望更加渺茫。

华盛顿方面也强烈反对停火，认为这只会巩固俄罗斯获得的战果。

尽管俄罗斯宣布在白俄罗斯部署战术核武器，但因为北京发挥的作用，欧洲人最担心的问题—战争会蔓延成核战争—其可能性已经大大降低。

在与德国总理朔尔茨和美国总统拜登的会晤中，习主席已经明确表示，不能在欧洲使用核武器。因此，普京总统在本月与习主席的联合声明中重申，“核战争打不赢，也打不得”，这让所有人如释重负。

北京下一步会做什么还有待观察，但很明显，它有一个长长的待办事项清单。显然，在一个日益分裂的世界中，人们期待中国成为和平的稳定器与中立的斡旋者。四十多年前中国改革开放伊始，时任领导人邓小平曾说，中国要“摸着石头过河”。现在，一个全球化的中国已经步入海洋。海床深不可及，中国只有义无反顾，破浪前行。

【本文原载于《南华早报》】

本文英文原文：

Saudi-Iran deal is a stepping stone for China in its global role as honest broker

China’s success as a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia is more than a milestone. It is also a stepping stone leading to higher expectations: can China help similarly elsewhere?

In the Middle East, where it is sometimes said that the enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend, there are enough troubles for Beijing to address. Being the only major power that befriends everybody thanks to its policy of non-alliance and non-interference, China can probably further help with another more pressing problem – the Iranian nuclear issue.

According to the Pentagon, Tehran’s nuclear development has been remarkable; it can now produce enough material for a nuclear bomb in 12 days

The Trump administration withdrew from a nuclear pact in 2018 and negotiations between the Biden administration and Iran on restarting the nuclear deal have stalled. Perhaps Beijing, one of the negotiators of the deal struck in 2015, can first persuade Tehran behind closed doors – like it did with the Saudi-Iran deal – to not cross the threshold of making a nuclear bomb, before bringing together like-minded stakeholders, including Washington, to renegotiate a new deal with Tehran.

The situation is much more complicated in Ukraine where China’s two friends have been at each other’s throats. No one knows how long the war will last except that it will last.

The challenge is to find the foundations for a peace agreement – whether it involves Russia’s unconditional withdrawal from Ukraine or territorial negotiations and concessions.

Presumably Russia would want to be able to claim at least some victory. Otherwise, Russian President Vladimir Putin would find it hard to explain why he launched the war at all.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said in February that victory is inevitable if allies keep their promise. That means there is indeed a risk of the allies not keeping their promise if this war turns out to be a war of attrition.

Perhaps the end game is an armistice akin to that between North and South Korea, which no one likes. The difference, though, is that Russia is much more powerful than Ukraine, and therefore the border, wherever it might be, would be much more difficult to secure.

It is hard to tell what a new security architecture in Europe might look like. But there would have to be negotiations between Russia and Nato.

The core question is how to address Russia’s sense of insecurity. Nato is right to say it hasn’t forced countries to join the security alliance, but it is Nato’s unrelenting expansion since the end of the Cold War that has backfired.

If Moscow believes Nato’s expansion constitutes an existential threat to Russia that it has to use force to push back, then the more popular Nato is, the more insecure Europe will become. It is ludicrous for the most powerful military alliance on Earth, which includes some of the world’s strongest nations, to describe itself as a self-defence organisation.

Like in the Middle East, China is the only major power that can play a constructive role in Russo-Ukrainian war. All other major powers have already sided with Ukraine. Beijing is not allied with Moscow, and still friendly with Kyiv. China has Russia’s trust even though it has not provided any military support.

And Beijing’s role as an honest broker is likely to be welcomed by Kyiv. During then Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych’s visit to Beijing in December 2013, China declared that it would not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine and would provide security assurances against any such threat by a third party.

Beijing’s 12-point peace plan announced at the one-year anniversary of the war is a huge step forward from its carefully balanced position since the outbreak of the conflict. It includes some core concepts that few can challenge, such as the need for all parties to respect sovereignty, exercise rationality and restraint, and prioritise the effective protection of civilians.

But there is no guarantee the peace plan will succeed when both sides have shown no inclination to stop fighting. In 2022, Zelensky even signed a decree banning any negotiation with Putin. The recent arrest warrant for Putin issued by the International Criminal Court will make any chance of a ceasefire slimmer.

Washington is strongly opposed to a ceasefire too, saying that this will only freeze Russia’s gains on the ground.

In spite of Russia’s announcement of deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, thanks to Beijing, the possibility of Europeans’ worst fear – that the war will spill over into a nuclear war – being realised has been considerably reduced

In his meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz and US President Joe Biden, President Xi has made it crystal clear that no nuclear weapons could be used in Europe. Therefore, Putin’s reiteration in the joint statement with Xi this month that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought should be a huge relief to everyone.

It remains to be seen what Beijing might do next, but it is clear that it has a long to-do list. Apparently in an ever-divided world, people look to China to be a stabiliser as well as an honest broker.

When China kicked off its reform over four decades ago, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping famously said China needed to cross the river by feeling the stones on the riverbed. Now a global China has entered the ocean. It cannot feel the seabed, but there is no turning back.

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