印度正在错过下一次工业革命的巴士_风闻

【来源龙腾网】

正文原创翻译：

Can India become a manufacturing superpower yet ? I contend that we have missed the bus on any realistic chances of such an outcome.

印度能成为制造业超级大国吗? 我认为，我们已经错过了实现这种结果的任何现实机会。

原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Question: are you saying seriously that we cannot become a manufacturing power in the future?

问:你说我们未来不能成为制造大国，这是认真地吗?

Answer: Yes, 3D printing, robotics and AI is taking over and we aren’t investing in this.

答:是的，3D打印、机器人和人工智能正在接管（制造业），而我们并未在这方面投资。

We were 200 years late to the industrial revolution at independence. Nevertheless we had begun to build an industrial base under Nehru with steel, cement, fertilizer and other basic industrial capabilities. Then the planned economy of socialism put a stop to that. We lost 40 years of economic development . When we had the advantage of wage arbitrage, we squandered the opportunity to industrialize. At the time that China was industrializing, India was on a lower economic base and had the advantage of an English speaking workforce. We had the advantage. Today our wages may be marginally lower but our skill set is very low in comparison to even China.

我们独立时，工业革命已过去了200年。尽管如此，在尼赫鲁的领导下，我们已经开始建立一个拥有钢铁、水泥、化肥和其他基本工业能力的工业基础。后来社会主义计划经济让其中断。我们失去了40年的经济发展。当我们拥有工资套利的优势时，我们浪费了工业化的机会。当中国正在工业化时，印度的经济基础低下，然而拥有一个优势：劳动力说英语。我们有优势。今天我们的工资可能略低，但即使与中国相比，我们的技能都非常低。

The global workplace today is entirely merit and skill based.

如今的全球职场完全是基于能力和技能的。

An Indian student in high school today is not learning about robotics or playing with 3D printing or AI, at least not in your ordinary school. On the other hand, you have Indian children who have moved abroad, say, to the US, learning these skills at the same age in high school, and putting it to practical use. This is what is going to set them apart for the industrial economy of the future.

今天的印度高中生不会学习机器人技术，也不会玩3D打印或人工智能，至少在普通的学校里不会。另一方面，那些移居国外，比如美国的印度孩子，他们在同样年龄的高中学习这些技能，并将其用于实际应用。这将使他们在未来的工业经济中脱颖而出。

When the world in the pre-industrial times was purely based on physical strength, the difference between the strongest individual and the average individual was never more than one order of magnitude that is 10x. If the strongest person could lift 300 kilos, then the average person could lift at least 30 to 60 kilos whereas the strongest person would also eat five times as much, negating any advantage. However, once mechanical advantage and chemical advantage came into play, the person inventing the machine or industrial process was even a thousand times more valuable than an ordinary worker.

前工业时代的世界纯粹以体力为基础，最强壮的个体与普通个体之间的差距从来不会超过一个数量级，也就是10倍。如果最强壮的人能举起300公斤，那么一般人至少能举起30到60公斤，而最强壮的人也要吃5倍的饭，这就消灭了任何优势。然而，一旦机械优势和化学优势发挥作用，发明机器或工业过程的人的价值甚至是普通工人的一千倍。

If you went back a hundred years there was very little skilled requirement for holding a job. Somebody could become a general just because they were the prince of a state, and somebody could be given a job in a factory because their father worked there. Whereas with the technology of even the ’80s you needed competence - you could not ask someone to run a lathe if they were not a trained machinist.

如果回到一百年前，对一份工作的技能要求非常低。有人可能仅仅因为他们是一个国家的王子，就成为将军，有人可能因为他们的父亲在工厂工作，就在工厂工作。然而，即使是80年代的技术，你也需要能力——如果一个人不是受过训练的机械师，你就不能让他开车床。

As these machines advanced the world has divided itself into two parts- the first part is low skilled people aided by smart technology and the second much smaller part is incredibly smart and well trained people operating or creating incredibly complex technology. Think of a swiggy driver or call center operator versus a Spacex engineer. This second section of people are going to create the real economic opportunities and industries of today and tomorrow.

随着这些机器的进步，世界已经分成了两部分——第一部分是得到智能技术帮助的低技能人群，第二部分是非常聪明和训练有素的人，他们操作或创造了非常复杂的技术。想象一下外卖员或呼叫中心接线员，与Spacex的工程师的差别。第二部分人将在今天和明天创造真正的经济机会和产业。

Skill is even more of a requirement today because not everyone can understand 3D printing, robotics, and machine learning. But Indian society is focused towards social equality and social advancement. Skill and merit is not being invested in as much as social justice is.

如今，技能更是一种要求，因为不是每个人都能理解3D打印、机器人和机器学习。但印度社会专注于社会平等和社会进步。人们对技能和价值的投入不如对社会公正的投入多。

Let us not be fooled by the success we had in creating an IT economy starting from the ’90s . It is relatively cheap to learn web programming, digital art and other skills with the help of a PC and some software which can be pirated. On the other hand to learn robotics, 3D printing, etc. you need to invest in expensive labs that have dedicated technology. I think the cheapest 3D printer which is somewhat usable will cost at least one lakh rupees . This is a phase of industrialization that favors the richer countries.

我们不要被我们从90年代开始在创建IT经济方面取得的成功所愚弄。在个人电脑和一些可以盗版的软件的帮助下，学习网络编程、数字艺术和其他技能相对便宜。另一方面，要想学习机器人，3D打印等，就需要投资昂贵的实验室，有专门的技术。我认为最便宜的3D打印机至少要10万卢比。这是一个有利于富裕国家的工业化阶段。

So in short, India has once again missed the bus on the modern industrial revolution which is based on intelligent machines which need to be programmed.

简而言之，印度再次错过了现代工业革命的班车，而现代工业革命是基于需要编程的智能机器。

If not already, in about 5 to 10 years, it’ll be too late because the advantage that the West will enjoy when it comes to industrial technology will simply not be able to be matched by other countries. As I said, the ratio of advantage when it was just physical strength was a maximum cap of 10 times. But with industrialization the advantage of machines was even greater, maybe a few thousand times. Now with the advantage of AI and robotics and 3D printing you are going to have an advantage of several million times.

如果现在还没有，在大约5到10年内，就会为时已晚，因为西方在工业技术方面所享有的优势将根本无法被其他国家所匹敌。就像我说过的，只说体力方面的优势，比例上限是10倍。但随着工业化，机器的优势更大，可能是几千倍。现在有了人工智能、机器人和3D打印的优势，这种优势将是数百万倍。

You are already using a million times more powerful AI everyday when you search Google. It is impossible using any normal method of databases to retrieve search results as quickly as Google does. It is the AI engine that allows for instantaneous retri of results. So you could say Google is a million times more effective than a non AI powered search engine. These advantages cannot be easily competed against.

当你每天搜索谷歌时，你已经在使用强大了100万倍的人工智能。使用任何正常的数据库方法都不可能像谷歌那样快速检索和搜索结果。这就是允许即时检索结果的AI引擎。所以可以说谷歌比非人工智能搜索引擎高效一百万倍。这些优势是无法轻易与之竞争的。

In the 1940s learning stenography and typewriting guaranteed you a job for life. I just typed this entire wall of text using speech recognition on my phone.

在20世纪40年代，学习速记和打字可以保证你终身得到一份工作。而我刚刚用我手机上的语音识别打了可以布满一面墙的文字。