周波：俄乌冲突，中国最大责任就是……

**《金融时报》：**中国发现自己在乌克兰战争中的处境不易，北京与俄罗斯“没有止境的友谊”，使其站在了自身最大的贸易伙伴——欧洲的对立面。这引发了一些关键问题。最关键之一是，北京能否利用其对莫斯科的影响力来制止俄罗斯使用核武器？一旦战斗最终结束，中国认为自己将在其中扮演什么角色？我今天邀请到周波大校参与讨论，他是中国人民解放军的退役军官，现任清华大学战略与安全研究中心高级研究员，欢迎周大校。

**周波：**谢谢主持人。

**《金融时报》：**您觉得乌克兰战争对俄罗斯有什么影响吗？正如我刚提到的，中国与俄罗斯有着“没有止境的友谊”，你是否觉得这种关系现在正处于紧张状态？

**周波：**中国当然不希望这场战争发生，我相信没有人希望这场战争发生。我想，即便是普京总统也会后悔打这场战争，因为其结果是显而易见的。他无法承担战败的后果，也很难赢得这场战争。

当提到这场战争的时候，你提到了一个非常重要的词，而这个词在国际媒体上经常被错误地引述，即所谓“没有止境的友谊”，虽然被引用的方式是正确的，但这个词也被误解得最厉害。

试想一下，当人与人之间谈论友谊时，当然希望这种友谊能够持久，我们肯定不说：“尽管我们之间存在友谊，但这种友谊是有限度的”。是的，我们不会说友谊是有限的，所以，（中俄）这样的表述是一种善意。

同时，在这个词所在的声明中（注：即2022年2月4日中俄关于新时代国际关系和全球可持续发展的联合声明），我们也明确提出，这不是一个军事联盟。

**《金融时报》：**现在中俄在乌克兰战争问题上存在分歧吗？你是否觉得在中国对于俄罗斯在乌克兰的所作所为存在紧张情绪？

**周波：**中国当然不愿意看到战争，因为它严重影响了中国的利益。

我所说的中国利益，是中国作为世界上最大的贸易国、工业国，我们的利益几乎无处不在。俄乌战争实际上已经影响了中国的 “一带一路"倡议和发展，它还影响了中国与许多欧洲国家的关系，这些国家认为，中国应该选边站，站在反对俄罗斯的一边。因此，这场战争在许多方面对中国造成了损失。

中国在这个问题上被夹在两个朋友之间，不得不谨慎行事。问题是，朋友的敌人就一定是我的敌人吗？不尽然。而且我认为，中国的立场得到了双方的理解，话虽如此，这并不意味着中国会袖手旁观，任由事态发展，中国不会也不能袖手旁观。

因为中国是一个大国，需要承担大国的责任。面对这样一场战争，中国的责任是什么？那就是，不干火上浇油的事。

毋庸置疑，这场战争关乎主权这一重要问题，它是一国对另一国的入侵，但与此同时，人们往往忘记为什么会发生这场战争。自前苏联以来，从戈尔巴乔夫、叶利钦，再到普京总统，他们都曾警告过北约不要继续扩张，但北约都充耳不闻。普京的不同之处在于，他把这种警告付诸于军事行动。

普京出席新闻发布会（图片来源：ICphoto）

**《金融时报》：**中国肯定算是俄罗斯的外交盟友，您认为中国对俄罗斯有影响力吗？如果中国确实对俄罗斯有影响力，中国能否利用这种影响力，来阻止俄罗斯将军事冲突升级，阻止这场战争从乌克兰波及欧洲其他地方？

**周波：**我认为中国的影响力肯定是存在的。例如，我们来想想这个问题，全世界都在担心普京可能会使用核武器，在此问题上，中国发声很重要，关系到中俄友谊，这个问题更加重要。中国可能已经在缓和事态发展中发挥了重要作用。

**《金融时报》：**是的，那么这是中国在主动发挥影响？还是中国坐等俄罗斯自我克制，不在任何可能的情况下使用核武器？

**周波：**正如我之前所说，这对中国来说是一个两难的局面。但中国是世界第二大经济体，还是联合国安理会常任理事国，在这样一个完全基于人性的问题上，中国必须发声，中国必须向国际社会展示什么是正确的事情，什么事情永远不能做。

如果我们关注全球南方国家，其实有许多国家或多或少会同情俄罗斯的立场，所以当我们谈论世界观时，我们不能只谈西方人的想法，我们必须考虑全世界对这个问题的反应。

**《金融时报》：**中国会把乌克兰战争主要归咎于谁？是北约的东扩，还是普京的行动？

**周波：**我想说，很大程度上北约的扩张是俄罗斯实际采取这种行动的根本原因。对于军事联盟来说，它们必须找到一个威胁来证明自己的存在，来证明扩张的合理性，因为它们以扩张为生。但当我想到北约时，我认为北约的持续存在，在道义上是站不住脚的。

我为什么会这么说？因为如果一群小国联合起来对抗一个大国，那我可以理解，但如果是地球上最强大的国家联合起来，那我就得想想，这到底是为什么？还是政治的原因。因为你们在军事上已经足够强大了。

躲入地铁站避难的乌克兰民众（图片来源：ICphoto）

《金融时报》：我认为中国的形象和中国的声誉在欧洲受损，是因为战争，也是因为中俄关系一直是……至少在言语表达上，是坚定不移的。现在看来，我们可能会进入一个新阶段，走向结束乌克兰战争。您认为中国是否真的想修复与欧洲的关系？

**周波：**我认为得出中国形象受损的结论是错误的。我觉得西方必须思考中国所处的立场，不能仅仅通过自身视角，而应该设身处地站在中国的立场上思考，也站在印度的立场上，站在全球南方国家的立场上，你会发现，中国的立场并非只此一家。

事实上，让我们来谈谈另一个问题，关于自由民主，如果这与（世界）秩序有关， 显而易见的是，不仅世界变得不那么西方了，而且西方本身也在变得不那么西方。这不是我总结的，这是慕尼黑安全会议上得出的结论，这是其中一届年会的主题。所以我们看到全球民主正在衰退，我相信（西方式）民主将继续衰退，因为民主已经衰退了大约15或16年。

**《金融时报》：**那么，中国对其与欧洲的关系有什么看法？如果俄乌战争走向尾声，这是否为中国改善与欧洲的关系提供了机会？

**周波：**中国肯定希望确保与欧洲的良好关系，这意味着我们不希望欧洲总是站在美国一边。这是中国的一个非常朴素善良的愿望，欧洲为我们提供了许多东西——高科技和市场等，这些都是中国需要的。

那么问题更多在于欧洲将如何看待中国？欧洲将中国描述为经济上的竞争者、某些方面的伙伴和系统性的对手，总而言之，这让中国很困惑，我相信这一描述体现了整个欧洲的困惑，确实，在欧洲有许多口号是难以理解的，甚至对欧洲人来说也是如此，例如，战略自主等等。我希望这场战争会使欧洲人更独立地思考问题。

**《金融时报》：**终有一天，乌克兰战争会结束。到那时，您认为中国会采取什么样的姿态？比如说，中国是否有兴趣帮助乌克兰重建？我们都知道，中国一直在世界各地建设基础设施，并向"一带一路"国家提供约一万亿美元的贷款用于建设基础设施。所以你认为在战争结束后，中国可能会用这种方式帮助乌克兰吗？

**周波：**如果中国能在全世界范围内的"一带一路"倡议中投资数万亿美元，中国怎会不去帮助一个对中国一直友好，又饱受战争蹂躏的国家？所以，这是有可能的。第二是关于中国在基础设施建设方面的能力，如果你看看世界上中国建造的道路、房屋或建筑物，我们的建设速度很快，且价格低廉，对于像乌克兰这样遭受战争摧残的国家来说，这是很重要的。因此，我相信中国在战后帮助重建一个更美丽的乌克兰，不是能力超强，而是独一无二。

**《金融时报》：**周大校，非常感谢你与我们交流。

**周波：**谢谢你。

（翻译/中国论坛 程泽笠 许馨匀 | 核译/武一琪、韩桦）

采访英文实录：

FT：China finds itself in an uncomfortable position over the war in Ukraine.Beijing’s no-limits friendship with Russia puts it on the opposite side to its largest trade partner, Europe. This raises a number of key questions.

One of the most crucial is, can Beijing use its leverage with Moscow to restrain Russia from using nuclear weapons? And as Ukraine gets the upper hand militarily, what role does Beijing see for itself once the fighting is eventually over?

With me to discuss this is Senior Colonel Zhou Bo, a retired officer from China’s People’s Liberation Army, who is now a senior fellow at the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University.

Welcome, senior colonel.

Zhou Bo：Thank you, James.

FT：Could I start by just asking you how you feel the war in Ukraine is going for Russia? As I mentioned, China has a no-limits friendship with Russia.Do you feel that this friendship is now coming under strain?

Zhou Bo：Of course, China doesn’t want to have this war, and I believe nobody wants to have this war. And I believe even President Putin would regret to have this war, because of the result, which is apparent. He could not afford to lose a war, but apparently, he can hardly win this war.

When China thinks about this warI think you mentioned a very important word which is often misquoted in the international media. Although they quoted in a right way to call it ‘unlimited friendship.’

But this term is most misunderstood, in that..

Think of this. When people talk about their friendship, of course they wish this friendship would last. And should we say, in spite of friendship, this friendship is limited? We cannot say our friendship should be limited.

So, this is a kind of a goodwill gesture. But in the statement where this word is mentioned, we’re also talked about, this is not a military alliance.

FT：Would you say there are now divergences in view between China and Russia over the war in Ukraine? Do you feel that there is tension in China with regard to what Russia is doing in Ukraine?

Zhou Bo：Well, certainly not happy to see this war, because it has strongly affected Chinese interests.

When I talk about Chinese interests, well, because China now is the largest trading nation, largest industrial nation in the world.

Therefore Chinese interests are almost ubiquitous everywhere. And in Europe it actually has affected China’s belt-and-road initiative.

It actually has worsened China’s relationship with many European capitals who believe China should actually take sides.You know, not to take Russia’s side on this issue.

So it is damaging to China in many ways.But China has to be very careful on this issue, because as this is a bit like being sandwiched between two friends.

So is my friend’s enemy also my enemy? Not necessarily. And I think the Chinese position has paid off because both sides would understand this position.

Having said that, this does not mean that China would just stand idly by and watch this going on.

No, China is not. And China cannot afford to behave like that. Because China is a great power, and a great power shoulders great responsibility… and what is China’s great responsibility in this war? That is not to throw wood into the fire.

While this is certainly is an important issue about sovereignty, this is clearly an invasion of one country into another country.But at the same time people tend to forget why this has happened at all. Because ever since the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, Boris Yeltsin, on to President Putin. They have all warned against this kind of NATO’s expansion, and they have all fell on deaf ears. Putin is different in that he put this kind of wording into military operation, and that is a difference.

FT：Do you feel that China has leverage with Russia, given that China is certainly a diplomatic ally of Russia? And if China does have leverage with Russia, can China use that leverage to prevent Russia from escalating the military conflict, perhaps beyond Ukraine into other parts of Europe?

Zhou Bo：I think China’s leverage is certainly there.

For example, let’s think about this. The world is afraid that President Putin might resort to use of nuclear weapons.China’s voice matters, and China’s friendship with Russia would matter all the more on this issue. So probably it has already played a significant role in reducing such nightmare from happening.

FT：Right. And is this a conscious effort by China at the moment, or is it a sort of passive wish that China has that Russia should restrain itself from any scenario in which it might use nuclear weapons?

Zhou Bo：As I said before, this is a difficult situation for China. But China is the second-largest economy in the world. China is a member of UN Security Council.

On such issue that is totally, deeply rooted in humanity, China must have its voice voiced.China must show to the international community what is the right thing to do and what are forbidden things that should never be carried out.

If we talk about the Global South, there are many countries who actually, more or less, would have sort of sympathies with Russia’s position. So when we talk about world views we cannot only talk about what people think in the west.We have to think about the global response on this matter.

FT：Who would China primarily blame for the war in Ukraine? Would it be the eastward expansion of NATO, or would it be Putin’s actions?

Zhou Bo：I would say NATO’s expansion is very much the fundamental reason why Russia has actually taken such actions.

So, for military alliances they have to find a threat to justify their own existence, to justify the expansion. Because they live by expansion.

But when I think about Nato I believe it is not morally justifiable for the continued existence of Nato.

Why do I say that? Because if it is a bunch of small countries, you know, getting united against a big power, then I understand.But if the strongest nations on Earth would become united, then I would have to think, for what? This is for political reasons. Because you are already strong enough militarily.

FT：I suppose China’s image and China’s reputation has been damaged in Europe because of the war and because of the friendship that China has with Russia, which has been… Well, certainly, rhetorically unwavering during the war. Now that it looks like we may be moving to a new phase and possibly towards an end game of the war in Ukraine, do you think that China really wants to repair its relations with Europe?

Zhou Bo：Well, I think it would be wrong to conclude that China’s image is damaged. Because I believe the West has to think of China’s role, not only through its own prism, but you put yourself in the shoes of China.

Put yourself in the shoes of India. Put yourself in the shoes of the countries in the global south.You would find China’s position is not a unique position.

Actually, let’s talk about another issue, about liberal democracy. Well, if this has something to do with order, what is apparent is not only the world is becoming less western, but also the west itself is becoming less western.

Yes. This is not my conclusion. This is the conclusion of Munich Security Conference. Yeah, this is the theme of one of the conferences.So, we are seeing global democracy declining. And I believe it will continue to decline. Because it has declined for about 15 or 16 years.

FT：So what’s China’s view on its relationship with Europe?

If we are moving towards a potential endgame in the war in Ukraine, does that present an opportunity for China to improve its relations with Europe?

Zhou Bo：China definitely would like to secure good relationship with Europe.

That means we do not want you to take sides, as always, on American side.

This is a very simple, good wish from China, and Europe has so many things for us - high-tech technology and markets. All these things are needed for China.Then the question lies more with how Europe would look at China.

So, this is kind of describing China as an economic competitor, partner somewhere, and a systemic rival. Altogether, it’s confusing for China.So, I believe it tells about the confusion of Europe as a whole.

Yeah. There are so many slogans in Europe which are difficult to understand, even for Europeans.

For example, like, strategic autonomy, so on and so forth. And I hope this war actually would make Europeans to think about things more independently.

FT：At some point, the war in Ukraine will end.

And at that point, what kind of posture do you think China will take?

Is China interested, for instance, to help rebuild Ukraine?

We all know that China’s been building infrastructure all over the world and lending about a trillion US dollars to the belt-and-road initiative to build infrastructure.

So do you think China might be looking for that kind of role in Ukraine after the war has ended, whenever that may be?

Zhou Bo：If China can invest trillions of dollars in belt-and-road initiative, that actually is around the world.

Why can’t China help a war-torn country, which is always friendly toward China?

So, this is possible.

The second thing is about China’s capability in infrastructure building.

So China actually could make…

If you look at the world, the roads that China builds, the houses or the buildings that China built… .

They are much faster in being made, and they are more affordable.

And this is important for a war-torn country like Ukraine.

So I believe China doesn’t have exceptional capability, but China has unique capabilities in the postwar era for rebuilding a more beautiful Ukraine.

FT：Senior Colonel Zhou, thank you very much indeed for talking to us.

Zhou Bo：Thank you.

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