周波：上合组织若想长治久安，必须吸纳阿富汗为正式成员

【文/观察者网专栏作者 周波】

针对哈萨克斯坦的暴乱，以俄罗斯为首的集体安全条约组织（Collective Security Treaty Organization，CSTO，以下简称集安组织）国家做出了迅速果断的反应。这向同在该地区的上海合作组织（Shanghai Cooperation Organisation，SCO，以下简称上合组织）抛出了一个问题：在类似情况下，上合组织能否同样有效？

自 2001 年上合组织成立以来，成员国几乎每年都根据该组织的章程精神举行联合反恐演习。但哪个国家可能真的会向该组织寻求跨国界的帮助呢？

当阿富汗仍在上合之外时，上合组织无法在欧亚大陆解决恐怖主义问题。来源：《南华早报》

答案可能是没有。 俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦四国都是上合组织成员国，同时也都是集安组织中的盟国。正如哈萨克斯坦最近证明地那样，在必要时，这些国家会首先向集安组织寻求帮助。

与此同时，中国、印度和巴基斯坦（上合组织成员国）有足够能力，可以在没有外界帮助情况下处理任何国内动乱，上合组织国家中唯一不确定的是在2012年退出集安组织的乌兹别克斯坦。

在该地区，最需要在反恐方面获得外部帮助的国家是阿富汗——上合组织目前的观察员国。说得讽刺一点，阿富汗的份量似乎在于它可能给其他国家带来的麻烦。

在上合组织成立大会上，哈萨克斯坦时任总统纳扎尔巴耶夫曾在发言中将阿富汗描述为 “恐怖主义、分裂主义和极端主义的摇篮”。根据联合国的数据，2020年，阿富汗占全球鸦片产量的85%左右。

阿富汗罂粟种植面积大幅增加，从1998年的41000公顷增加到2000年的64000公顷，种植面积主要在赫尔曼德省，占世界非法鸦片产量的39%。来源：BBC

国际社会的愿望是，塔利班领导的阿富汗政府能够变得温和、包容，并坚决打击恐怖主义。虽然这一点无法保证，但塔利班迄今至少做了正确表态，承诺保障人民的生命和财产、尊重妇女的权利。

想必，这届政府的领导人已经从9·11之前掌权的塔利班身上吸取了一些教训。

因此，国际社会应该给塔利班一个兑现承诺的机会，尤其是因为阿富汗人民正在遭受世界上最严重的人道主义危机，而严冬、干旱和国际援助的不足，令情况雪上加霜。据报道，该国4000万居民中有一半以上面临粮食不足的问题。

上合组织可以如何提供帮助？首先，作为上合组织实际领导人和联合国安理会常任理事国，中国和俄罗斯应该敦促美方解除单边制裁，并尽快解冻阿富汗超过90亿美元的海外央行储备。 截至目前，拜登政府提供了援助，但没有直接与它所憎恶的塔利班政府打交道。

然而，这是行不通的。据《纽约时报》报道，援助组织警告说，今年冬天可能有100万阿富汗儿童死亡。这可能是危言耸听，但即使1万名儿童死亡，这也是犯罪，而不只是耻辱。如果阿富汗人民死的时候他们的钱还握在你手里，人们可以理直气壮地说他们死是你造成的。

联合国警告称，100万阿富汗儿童可能在“最危险的时刻”死亡。来源：《纽约时报》

同时，联合国应明确列出塔利班必须满足的条件，以换取解除制裁。以武力夺取政权的塔利班不是阿富汗人民选择的，但目前还没有任何一个政党看起来有能力在短期内取代他们。因此，联合国面临的挑战是如何定义“温和”和“包容”这类的模糊词汇。

如果这些条件包括让女性或普什图人加入政府、允许妇女工作和女孩上学，塔利班很可能会同意，因为这是他们已经承诺的。至少在纸面上，这些条件远比伊朗或朝鲜核协议中的条件更容易满足。

虽然上合组织现在不一定需要承认塔利班政府的合法性，但它应该利用2005年成立的上合组织-阿富汗联络小组与塔利班进行联络。最关键的是，即使塔利班同其他所有恐怖组织过去有交情、有相似的意识形态、甚至姻亲，塔利班现在也必须同它们一刀两断。

放眼未来，阿富汗需要成为上合组织成员国，才能使其避免看起来像一块无路可走的飞地；问题在于何时，阿富汗于2015 年申请成为正式成员后，就一直在等待。

难道喀布尔只有在不再是问题的时候才能加入吗？还是上合组织应该先让它进来，再从内部解决问题？抑或，如果这个问题像疫情一样根本不会消失，那么该组织能否学会与之共存？

2017年6月9日，印度、巴基斯坦成为上合组织正式成员。来源：CCDCOE

2017年，印度和巴基斯坦同时加入了上合组织。虽然这两个互不信任到似乎难以调和的国家也把问题带了进来，但至少印度作为世界第六大经济体，为该组织增添了份量。

让喀布尔成为成员国的好处是，上合组织可以在缓解最坏情况方面发挥关键作用。作为成员国，无论谁执政阿富汗政府，都必须防止极端主义运动蔓延到邻国。

成为成员国还能使阿富汗融入该地区的政治和经济版图，这一点对其未来的繁荣至关重要。毕竟，阿富汗60%以上的贸易是与上合组织国家进行的。

阿富汗不仅是一个内陆国，而且也几乎被上合组织国家包围。如果阿富汗不稳定，上合组织就会受到影响。横跨欧亚腹地已颇为艰辛，但如果上合组织想要变得更加强大，就应该勇敢地拥抱一个掌握着地区和平稳定关键的国家。

翻译：程泽笠、许馨匀 核译：韩桦

SCO cannot tackle terrorism in Eurasia while Afghanistan remains outside the bloc

Senior Colonel Zhou Bo (ret) is a senior fellow of the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University and a China Forum expert

The swift and decisive response by countries of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to the riots in Kazakhstan raises a question for its peer in the region, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO): can it become equally effective in a similar situation?

Since the inauguration of the SCO in 2001, member states have held joint counterterrorism exercises almost annually, in line with the spirit of the group’s charter. But which country might really ask for cross-border help from the organisation?

The answer is probably none. Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, all member states of the SCO, are also allies in the CSTO. If necessary, they would seek help from the alliance first, as Kazakhstan proved recently.

China, India and Pakistan, meanwhile, are strong enough to deal with any domestic unrest without external help. The only uncertainty among SCO states is Uzbekistan, which left the CSTO in 2012.

The country in the region that needs most external help in counterterrorism efforts is Afghanistan, currently an observer state of the SCO. Cynically speaking, the heft of Afghanistan seems to lie in the troubles it might bring to other countries.

At the founding ceremony of the SCO, president Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan described Afghanistan as “the cradle of terrorism, separatism and extremism” in his opening remarks. According to the UN, Afghanistan accounted for some 85 per cent of global opium production in 2020.

The wish of the international community is for the Taliban-led Afghan government to become moderate, inclusive and resolute in fighting terrorism. There is no guarantee of that, but at least the Taliban has said the right things, promising that people’s lives and property would be safeguarded and women’s rights respected.

Presumably, the leaders of this government have learned some lessons from their avatars who were in power before September 11.

The international community should therefore give the Taliban a chance to honour its promise, not least because the Afghan people are suffering from the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, exacerbated by the harsh winter, drought and insufficient international aid. More than half the country’s 40 million residents are reportedly facing food insecurity.

How can the SCO help? First and foremost, as de facto leaders of the SCO and permanent members of the UN Security Council, China and Russia should urge the US to lift its unilateral sanctions and unfreeze the more than US$9 billion in overseas central bank reserves as soon as possible. So far, the Biden administration has offered aid without dealing directly with the Taliban-led government it abhors.

This won’t work. According to The New York Times, aid groups have warned that 1 million Afghan children could die this winter. This may be alarmist, but even if 10,000 children die, it will be a crime rather than a shame. If Afghan people are dying while their money is in your hands, people can safely argue they are dying because of you.

Concurrently, the UN should lay down clear conditions that the Taliban has to meet in exchange for lifting sanctions. The Afghan people did not choose the Taliban, who took power by force, but there is no political party in sight that looks capable of replacing them any time soon. The challenge for the UN, then, is how to define such slippery words as “moderate” and “inclusive”.

If these terms mean including people who are not male or Pashtun in government, allowing women to work and girls to go to school, the Taliban would most probably agree since this is what they have already promised. At least on paper, these conditions are much easier to meet than those found in the Iranian or North Korean nuclear deals.

Although the SCO doesn’t necessarily need to recognise the legitimacy of the Taliban-led government now, it should use the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group that was established in 2005 to liaise with the Taliban. Crucially, the Taliban must break away from all terrorist groups, even if they are bound by historical friendship, ideological similarity and even intermarriage.

Looking beyond the horizon, Afghanistan needs to become an SCO member state if it is to avoid looking like an enclave that leads to nowhere. The question is when. Afghanistan applied for full membership in 2015 and has been waiting ever since.

Can Kabul only join when it is no longer a problem? Or should the SCO let it in and resolve the problem from within? Or, if the problem is one which, like the pandemic, simply won’t go away, could the organisation learn to live with it?

In 2017, India and Pakistan both joined the SCO. Although the countries brought with them a seemingly irreconcilable mutual distrust, at least India’s economy, now the sixth largest in the world, has added strength to the organisation.

The benefit of granting Kabul full membership is that the SCO could play a pivotal role in mitigating worst-case scenarios. As a full member, the Afghan government – no matter who is in power – would be obliged to prevent extremist movements from spilling over into neighbouring countries.

Membership would also allow Afghanistan to be woven into the political and economic fabric of the region, something which is crucial for its future prosperity. After all, more than 60 per cent of Afghanistan’s trade is with SCO countries.

Afghanistan is not only landlocked, but it is almost SCO-locked as well. If it is not stable, the SCO will suffer. Striding over the Eurasian heartland is already a large undertaking. But for the SCO to become stronger, it should be brave enough to embrace a country that holds the key to regional peace and stability.

原文链接：https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3165595/sco-cannot-tackle-terrorism-eurasia-while-afghanistan-remains?module=opinion&pgtype=homepage

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