随着英国举国停顿悼念女王，经济衰退的威胁迫在眉睫_风闻

【来源龙腾网】

正文原创翻译：

Recession threat looms as UK grinds to a halt to mourn Queen

-Bank holiday for state funeral could send productivity plummeting at a time when country is struggling for growth

随着英国举国停顿悼念女王，经济衰退的威胁迫在眉睫

——在国家经济增长艰难之际，为国葬安排的银行假期可能会导致生产力骤降

(Hundreds of thousands of people are expected to go to London to pay their respects to the Queen.)

（预计将有数十万人前往伦敦向女王致敬。）

新闻：

Britain’s fragile economy was already teetering on the edge of recession even before the death of Queen Elizabeth II last week. That prospect now looms a lot larger, as businesses cancel events amid the period of national mourning culminating in the bank holiday for the late monarch’s funeral.

在上周女王伊丽莎白二世去世之前，英国脆弱的经济就已经在衰退的边缘徘徊了。如今，这一前景变得更加严峻，因为在为已故君主举行葬礼的银行假期达到顶峰的全国哀悼日期间，企业取消了生产活动。

原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Economists say high street shops closing their doors or operating reduced hours on Monday, alongside the loss of a full working day, will lead to a sharp fall in output at a time when Britain is struggling for growth momentum amid the cost of living crisis.

经济学家表示，商业街商店在周一关门或缩短营业时间，加上全天工作日的减少，将导致产出大幅下降，而此时英国正面临生活成本危机，难以获得增长动力。

Estimates of the hit to the economy are inevitably sketchy and for the time being rely almost entirely on anecdotal evidence. There is already a rush of mourners to London, creating unprecedented demand on transport, in a boon for the capital’s hoteliers, cab drivers, hospitality venues and flower sellers, making up for losses elsewhere. However, it is unlikely to make up for the overall drop in activity.

对经济遭受打击的估计不可避免地是粗略的，目前几乎完全依赖于坊间证据。已经有大批吊唁者涌向伦敦，对交通产生了前所未有的需求，这对伦敦的酒店经营者、出租车司机、接待场所和花商来说是一个福音，弥补了其他地方的损失。然而，这不太可能弥补得了生产活动的整体下降。

“We see a greater risk that the UK slips into technical recession,” said Modupe Adegbembo, an economist at AXA Investment Managers. “As the UK mourns the death of the Queen, the additional bank holiday that has been granted for her funeral could see growth shift lower than we had initially expected, increasing the risk that the UK slips into technical recession this quarter.”

“我们认为英国陷入技术性衰退的风险更大，”安盛投资管理公司经济学家莫杜佩·阿德本博表示。“在英国哀悼女王去世之际，为她的葬礼而获得的额外银行假期可能会导致经济增长低于我们最初的预期，增加英国在本季度陷入技术性衰退的风险。”

On past form, it is a question not of whether there will be a hit to growth but of how big the hit will be. There were extra bank holidays in 2002 to mark the Queen’s golden jubilee and in 2012 to celebrate the marriage of the Duke and Duchess of Cornwall and Cambridge, and both resulted in weaker activity as factories, offices and construction sites were shut down.

从过去的情况来看，问题不在于经济增长是否会受到打击，而在于打击会有多大。2002年为纪念女王金禧，2012年为庆祝康沃尔公爵夫妇和剑桥公爵夫人的婚礼，都有额外的银行假日，但这两次都导致了工厂、办公室和建筑工地关闭，生产活动减弱。

Over time, the growth of the digital economy has meant the impact of an extra day off has diminished, but even so a double bank holiday to mark the Queen’s platinum jubilee shaved about 0.5 percentage points off monthly growth in June. A repeat of that next week would reduce gross domestic product by £10-11bn given that the UK is a £2.2tn economy.

随着时间的推移，数字经济的增长意味着多放一天假的影响已经减弱，但即便如此，6月份为纪念女王铂金周年而举行的双重银行假日也让月增长率下降了约0.5个百分点。鉴于英国是一个2.2万亿英镑的经济体，如果下周再次出现这种情况，GDP将减少100亿至110亿英镑。

On top of that, there will be the additional lost output associated with businesses closing, and events being postponed during the 10 days between the Queen’s death and her funeral. Some of this spending will be deferred rather than lost for ever, with postponed football matches played at a later date and meetings re-scheduled.

最重要的是，在女王去世和葬礼之间的10天里，企业关闭和活动推迟将导致额外的产出损失。其中一些支出将被推迟，而不是永远失去，比如足球比赛推迟到以后进行，会议重新安排。

However, some of the spending will never be recouped and even a small reduction in gross domestic product in September would be enough to tip the balance in favour of a second successive quarter of negative growth. The economy contracted by 0.1% in the three months to June. Two consecutive quarters of falling GDP are regarded by economists as the technical definition of a recession.

然而，部分支出将永远无法收回，即使9月份GDP出现小幅下降，也足以破坏平衡，促成连续第二个季度出现负增长。之前截至6月的三个月里，经济收缩了0.1%。而“GDP连续两个季度下降”被经济学家视为“经济衰退”的技术性定义。

原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Official figures show the economy staged a weaker than expected recovery in July, with monthly growth of 0.2%, following a sharp 0.6% fall in output in June, when the loss of a full working day due to the platinum jubilee weighed on activity.

官方数据显示，7月经济复苏弱于预期，环比增长0.2%，6月产出大幅下降0.6%，因铂金周年庆典损失了一个完整工作日，影响了经济活动。

After Liz Truss announced plans to freeze consumers’ energy bills from October, analysts expect that headline inflation is now unlikely to rise much further than the 40-year record set in July of 10.1%. However, while helping households with their living costs should cut the severity of a recession, it is unlikely to avoid one entirely, as families will still face gas and electricity costs of more than double a year ago.

在利兹·特拉斯宣布从10月开始冻结消费者能源账单的计划后，分析人士预计，现在整体通货膨胀率不太可能比7月创下的10.1%的40年记录进一步上升。然而，尽管帮助家庭降低生活成本应该会降低衰退的严重程度，但不太可能完全避免衰退，因为家庭仍将面临一年前两倍多的天然气和电力成本。

Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said he expected GDP would eventually regain its previous level but some of the growth that would have happened will be foregone. Dales was already pencilling in a second quarter of negative growth between July and August, but now thinks the decline in the third quarter will be steeper.

凯投宏观首席英国经济学家保罗·戴尔斯表示，他预计GDP最终会恢复到之前的水平，但一些原本会出现的增长将会被放弃。戴尔斯此前已预估第二季经济将在7 - 8月间出现负增长，但现在认为第三季下滑幅度将更大。

Some sectors and some regions of the UK will do better than others. London’s hospitality sector is expected to do good business from the crowds flocking to the capital to pay their respects. George Buckley, economist at Japanese bank Nomura said: “Florists in London will do well and sales of coffee will to through the roof. But in aggregate people aren’t going to be producing as much.”

英国的一些部门和一些地区将比其他部门表现更好。人们蜂拥而至以表达他们的敬意，伦敦的酒店业预计会有不错的生意。日本野村证券的经济学家乔治·巴克利表示：“伦敦的花店生意会很好，咖啡的销量也会飙升。但总的来说，人们的生产不会那么多。”