讨论：由于俄乌战争，今年欧洲如何度过没暖气的寒冬_风闻

【来源龙腾网】

正文原创翻译：

if you’d ask most citizens of whichever EU country if they are willing to risk being unable to feed and heat their children in order to support Ukraine and Zelensky, they would say NO. Hell no!

如果你问任何一个欧盟国家的公民，他们是否愿意冒着无法喂饱孩子和取暖的风险来支持乌克兰和泽连斯基，他们一定会说不。绝对不行！

But that is what they’re all being pushed towards.

Food prices look to at least double from here, after they’ve doubled once already, while energy prices are set to triple or worse. And there’s no logical reason for it.

然而这就是他们都会被推向的方向。

食品价格看起来至少要翻一番，此前它们已经翻过一次，而能源价格将翻三番甚至更糟糕。而且没有任何逻辑上的理由。

This is not due to some inevitable market mechanism, it’s because the west decided to halt all Russian imports after the latter’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine. All western leaders found that reason enough to cut all, or nearly all, imports from Russia. Gas, oil, fertilizer, food. Essentials. They could have been sitting around a negotiating table, but chose not to. Which only works as long as things remain sort of affordable. And then, it does not.

这不是由于某种不可避免的市场机制，而是因为西方在俄罗斯在乌克兰的特别军事行动后，决定停止所有俄罗斯进口商品。所有西方领导人都认为这个理由足以削减所有来自俄罗斯的进口。天然气、石油、化肥、食品。他们本可以坐在谈判桌旁，但选择不这样做。这只在事情保持在某种可承受范围内时才有效。然后，它现在没有了。

Problem is, they had and have no alternative to the Russian supplies of these goods (and there’s many more).

See, this is how we know they don’t make their own decisions. Those are made in Brussels and Davos, and then the “leaders” have to carry out the preconceived programs, and they will.

No elected official on his/her own would risk to destroy their own country’s energy or food safety, with elections coming up every few years. But their WEF/Davos connections have changed that “logic”. The WEF makes sure no western leader gets elected who is not a member of their club. There’s only one path to power these days.

问题是，对于俄罗斯供应的这些商品，他们已经别无选择（还有更多）。

看，这就是我们如何知道他们不做自己的决定。这些决定是在布鲁塞尔和达沃斯做出的，然后 “领导人 “必须执行预先设想的方案，而且他们会这样做。

没有哪个民选官员会自己冒险破坏自己国家的能源或食品安全，因为每隔几年就会有选举。但在达沃斯世界经济论坛他们改变了这种 “逻辑”。如今，达沃斯是一条通往权力的道路，每一个西方领导人都是由这个俱乐部的成员当选的。

But these people grossly underestimate the effect that hunger and cold -will- have on their citizens. The first signs of that are visible in the protests of truckers and farmers, but that’s just a start. You just wait till the cold sets in, and the running blackouts, and the hunger. Wait till people have to feed their kids scraps from a bare table in a cold dark home.

但这些人严重低估了饥饿和寒冷对他们公民的影响。在卡车司机和农民的抗议中就可以看到最初的迹象，但这只是一个开始。你只是等到寒冷来临，停电和饥饿。等到人们不得不在寒冷黑暗的家中用光秃秃的桌子喂孩子们的残羹剩饭。

That’s when you will see who people really are. People in the west are overfed, and lazy, and not too sharp, but wait till their kids, and their families, are truly suffering. They’ve seen the example of the farmers and truckers. Wait for people to see the lix between their own lives, and the farmers; then you will see who they really are.

这时你会看到人们的真实面目。西方人吃得太多，又懒惰，而且不太聪明。但等到他们的孩子和他们的家庭真正受苦的时候——他们已经看到了农民和卡车司机的例子。等到人们看到他们自己的生活和农民之间的联系，然后你就会看到他们真正的样子。

In Europe, the Germans and Dutch will manage to be sort of OK, but only at the expense of poorer EU countries. And that won’t even be their main problem; that problem will be at home; their own farmers will come for them. And their poorest. Countries will leave the EU (and the euro). Hungary first to go?! In Greece, there’s already talk of rolling blackouts this winter, and they get most of their electricity from hydro. Italy is a shambles. How many present “leaders” will still be in place January 1 2023? How about June? After a winter of great discontent?

在欧洲，德国人和荷兰人将设法过得还不错，但这是以较贫穷的欧盟国家为代价。而且这甚至不是他们的主要问题；这个问题将在国内；他们自己的农民会来找他们。还有他们最穷的邻居。各国将离开欧盟，匈牙利首先要走？在希腊，已经有人在谈论今年冬天可能的停电，而他们的大部分电力来自水力。意大利一团糟。到 2023 年 1 月 1 日，还有多少现任“领导人”仍然在位？六月呢？在一个极度不满的冬天之后？

And they’re all telling you that “we” have to win in Ukraine first, and everything will be alright. But “we” have already lost in Ukraine, we did on February 24, and “we” should be talking to, and making peace with, Russia. Why are we not? Because we don’t want food and energy? The folks in Brussels and Davos will not be hungry and cold. But in other EU places they will be. And they will come to balance this thing out.

As for the US, I’m scared there too. Energy prices may not get as bad as in Europe, but food will be real bad (and how about housing?!).

And there’s this fight between two factions going on, that starts to feel like what went on before the Civil War.

I hope I’m wrong, but I feel it everywhere: Overreach.

他们都在告诉你，“我们”必须首先在乌克兰获胜，一切都会好起来的。但是“我们”已经在乌克兰输了，我们在 2 月 24 日输了，“我们”应该与俄罗斯对话并与俄罗斯和平相处。为什么我们不是？因为我们不需要食物和能量？布鲁塞尔和达沃斯的人们不会感到饥饿和寒冷。但在欧盟的其他地方，他们会的。而且他们会来平衡这件事的。

至于美国，我也很担心，能源价格可能不会像欧洲那么糟糕，但食物会非常糟糕（住房呢？！）。

两个派别之间的斗争正在进行，开始感觉像内战之前的情况。

我希望我是错的，但我到处都感觉到了。