美版知乎：为何美国成功打断日本崛起,却没能阻止中国_风闻

从上世纪以来，美国已经接连击垮了4个“世界老二”，分别是英国、德国、苏联以及日本。美国是一个十分有危机感的国家，对于维持自己的霸权地位相当重视，从来不允许其他国家随意超越美国。此前美国总统拜登更是公开表示，在自己任期内不会让中国超越美国。虽然中国从未想过超越美国，但美国自身还是相当有危机意识的，已经开始针对中国采取各种行动，想要压制中国前进的脚步。在美版知乎Quora上，美国网友提问道：为什么美国成功地打断了日本的崛起，却没有阻止中国？这个问题引起各国网友的围观和热议，我们看看他们的观点。

问题：为什么美国成功打断了日本的崛起，却没能阻止中国的复兴？

旅居日本的美国网友史蒂文•科尔比的回答

In 1985, Japan surpassed the United States to become the world’s largest creditor country, and products made in Japan flooded the world. The crazy expansion of Japanese capital made the American industry exclaim that “Japan will take over the United States peacefully!”

1985年，日本超过美国成为世界上最大的债权国，日本制造的产品充斥全世界，日本资本的疯狂扩张让美国业界惊呼“日本将和平接管美国！”

Many U.S. manufacturing companies and congressmen began to lose their breath and frequently lobbied the U.S. government, strongly urging the Reagan administration to intervene in the foreign exchange market and devalue the U.S. dollar to save the depressed U.S. manufacturing industry. Many economists even joined the ranks of lobbying the government to change its support for the strong dollar.

许多美国制造公司和国会议员开始沉不住气，频频游说美国政府，强烈敦促当时的里根政府干预外汇市场，让美元贬值，以挽救萧条的美国制造业，许多经济学家甚至加入了游说政府改变支持强势美元立场的行列。

In September, 1985, US Treasury Secretary jamesbeck, Japanese Treasury Secretary Takeshita, former Federal German Treasury Secretary Gerhard Stoltenberg, French Treasury Secretary Pierre beregovo, British Treasury Secretary nigellawson and other finance ministers of five developed industrial countries held a meeting at the Plaza Hotel in New York, agreeing to intervene in the foreign exchange market and devalue the US dollar against major currencies in an orderly manner, To solve the huge trade deficit of the United States.

1985年9月，美国财长詹姆斯·贝克、日本财长竹下、前联邦德国财长格哈德·斯托尔滕贝格、法国财长皮埃尔·贝列戈沃、英国财政部长奈杰尔·劳森（NigelLawson）和五个发达工业国家的其他财政部长五国政府在纽约广场酒店举行会议，同意干预外汇市场，有序地使美元兑主要货币贬值，以解决美国巨大的贸易赤字。

As the agreement was signed at Plaza Hotel, it is also called “Plaza Agreement”. The agreement stipulates that the Japanese yen and the mark should rise sharply to restore the overvalued dollar price. After the signing of the Plaza Accord, the five countries intervened in the foreign exchange market and began to sell dollars, which triggered a selling boom among market investors and led to the continued sharp depreciation of the dollar.

由于该协议是在广场酒店签署的，因此该协议也被称为“广场协议”。该协议规定，日元和马克应大幅升值，以恢复被高估的美元价格。广场协议签署后，五国干预外汇市场，开始抛售美元，进而引发市场投资者的抛售热潮，导致美元持续大幅贬值。

Since then, the US government authorities headed by US Treasury Secretary Baker and experts represented by fredbergsten (then director of the US Institute of International Economics) continued to verbally intervene in the US dollar, saying that the US dollar exchange rate was still high at that time and there was still room for decline.

此后，以美国财政部长贝克为首的美国政府当局和以弗雷德·伯格斯滕（时任美国国际经济研究所所长）为代表的专家继续口头干预美元，表示美元汇率当时仍处于高位，还有下跌空间。

Due to the tough stance of the US government, the US dollar continued to fall sharply against the Japanese yen. In September, 1985, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen was 250 yen to pay 1 US dollar. Less than three months after the Plaza agreement came into effect, the Japanese yen rapidly appreciated to 200 yen to 1 US dollar, an increase of 20%. At the end of 1986, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar was 152 yen. In 1987, it reached the highest value of 120 yen against the US dollar.

由于美国政府的强硬立场，美元兑日元汇率继续大幅下跌。1985年9月，日元汇率从250日元兑付1美元，在《广场协议》生效后不到三个月，日元迅速升值至200日元兑1美元，增幅为20%。1986年底，日元兑美元汇率为152日元，1987年达到120日元兑1美元的最高值。

Since the late 1980s, with the bursting of the foam economy, Japan has fallen into a decade of economic stagnation, known as the “lost decade”. From high growth to long-term stagnation, Japan’s development experience has provided valuable lessons for emerging countries with ambitious economic take-off plans.

从20世纪80年代中后期开始，随着泡沫经济的破灭，日本陷入了长达十年的经济停滞，被称为“失去的十年”。从高增长到长期停滞，日本的发展经验为有雄心勃勃的经济起飞计划的新兴国家提供了宝贵的教训。

As the most important producer and exporter of products, China’s foreign exchange reserves unexpectedly leapt to the top in the world, and the RMB is facing great appreciation pressure, which is very similar to Japan in the mid-1980s.

作为最重要的产品制造国和出口国，中国的外汇储备不出意外地跃居世界首位，人民币面临着巨大的升值压力，这种情况和20世纪80年代中期的日本非常相像。

Reviewing the economic development of Japan in the past three decades, the Plaza Agreement in 1985 was a turning point. Some analysts pointed out that after the Plaza Accord was reached, the appreciation of the yen hit Japan’s export competitiveness, and the Japanese economy has been in a state of collapse for more than a decade. Even in the economic circles, a considerable number of people believe that the Plaza Accord is a big conspiracy set up by the United States to overthrow Japan.

回顾过去三十年日本经济的发展，1985年的广场协议是一个转折点。一些分析师指出，广场协议达成后，日元升值打击了日本的出口竞争力，日本经济在十多年的时间里一直处于崩溃状态。即使在经济界，也有相当一部分人认为广场协议是美国为推翻日本而设的一个大阴谋。

The United States is now trying to do the same with China:

美国现在正试图对中国采取同样的做法：

1. Unjustifiably accuse China of not protecting intellectual property rights;

1、无理指责中国不保护知识产权；

2. China is accused of artificially manipulating the RMB and trying to make the RMB appreciate.

2、无端指责中国人为操纵人民币，试图使人民币升值。

These methods are exactly the same as those used against Japan at that time, but China is a country completely different from Japan.

这些方法与当时对抗日本的方法完全相同，但中国是一个与日本截然不同的国家。

1. China has a huge domestic market, that is, the import market. China’s import volume far exceeds that of Japan. This situation forces China to divert the attention of the United States by increasing procurement.

1、中国有一个巨大的国内市场，即进口市场，中国的进口量远远超过日本。这种情况迫使中国可以通过增加采购等方式转移美国的注意力。

2. The internationalization of RMB is not as high as that of yen. A strong government is the strong backing of China’s financial and monetary system. Western financial oligarchs including Soros cannot attack it.

2、人民币不如日元国际化程度高，强大的政府是中国金融货币体系的坚强后盾，包括索罗斯在内的西方金融寡头无法对其发起攻击。

Wright Hirsh, the deputy trade representative who launched the trade war against Japan on behalf of the United States at that time, served as the deputy trade representative of the United States from 1981 to 1989. From the early 1980s to the late 1980s, he and his colleagues were the biggest headache of the Japanese government. They succeeded in strangling the momentum of Japan’s booming economy. He became famous at one stroke, and his brilliant record has always impressed trump, the real estate developer at that time.

当时代表美国对日发动贸易战的副贸易代表赖特·赫什（Wright Hirsh）在1981-1989年担任美国副贸易代表。从20世纪80年代初到晚期，他和他的同事是日本政府最头疼的问题。他们成功地扼杀了日本经济蓬勃发展的势头，他一举成名，而他的辉煌记录一直让当时的房地产开发商特朗普印象深刻。

Twenty years later, trump took him to the white house immediately after he took office. Only this time, Hirsch’s opponent is no longer Japan, the primary partner of the United States, but China, the giant second only to the United States.

二十年后，特朗普就任总统后立即将他带到白宫任职。只是这一次，赫什的对手不再是美国的初级伙伴日本，而是仅次于美国的巨人中国。

For his part, Wright Hesh is still immersed in the glory of the past. Therefore, this time, when he entered the white house again, he was still playing the old trick he used against Japan in those years - attacking China by using the US domestic law “trade 301”. Now, he accused China of stealing American technology, began to impose restrictions on China’s high-tech industry, forced China to come to the negotiating table with high tariff fines, and forced China to give up the development of high-tech industry. All these were the usual practices of the United States against Japan at that time.

就赖特·赫什本人而言，他仍然沉浸在过去的辉煌中。因此，这一次，当他再次入主白宫时，他仍在耍他当年对日本使用的老把戏——利用美国国内法“贸易301”攻击中国。现在，他指责中国窃取美国技术，开始对中国的高科技产业施加限制，以高关税罚款迫使中国来到谈判桌前，并以此迫使中国放弃高科技产业的发展，所有这些都是当时美国对日本的惯常做法。

In 1986, under the pressure of the United States, Japan and the United States signed the Japan US semiconductor agreement. On the one hand, Japan cancelled its own production capacity, on the other hand, Japan opened up its semiconductor market. From then on, Japan’s semiconductor industry, which occupies a leading position in the world, embarked on a road of no return. In 1989, the United States launched a “301 investigation” on the Japanese government’s procurement of satellites again, resulting in Japan having to give up its own satellite development plan, and the development of the aerospace industry stagnated.

1986年，在美国的压力下，日美签署了《日美半导体协议》，日本一方面取消了自己的生产能力，另一方面开放了日本半导体市场，从此，日本在全球占据主导地位的半导体产业走上了不归路。1989年，美国再次对日本政府采购卫星展开“301调查”，导致日本不得不放弃自己的卫星开发计划，航天产业发展陷入停滞。

Japan depends on the United States because of its comprehensive strength. Japan is politically dependent on the protection of the United States, economically dependent on the U.S. market, and financially unable to get rid of the U.S. dollar. When the United States could not win the game, they used outside forces, such as foreign exchange, laws, standards, rules and other hegemonic tactics to force the Japanese to surrender. This practice has been tried and tested. Until today, Japan is still in this lasso and cannot extricate itself.

日本因其综合实力而依赖美国。日本在政治上依赖美国的保护，在经济上依赖美国市场，在财政上无法摆脱美元。当美国无法赢得比赛时，他们使用场外力量，如外汇、法律、标准、规则等霸权主义战术被用来迫使日本人屈服。这种做法已经过尝试和检验，直到今天，日本仍处于这种套索中，无法自拔。

The United States has found a way out and confidence in this regard. It believes it can do so in this way to deal with all the global competition that comes with it. They also used it to disarm Alcatel of France. They used the same method against Japan and China again and again, but the results were disastrous. When Canadian president Trudeau asked trump for help, he said the truth: “it is not so easy to deal with the Chinese people.”

美国在这方面找到了一条出路，并找到了信心。它认为自己可以照做，以这种方式应对随之而来的所有全球竞争。他们还用它解除了法国阿尔卡特的武装。他们一次又一次地用同样的方法对付日本和中国，但结果是灾难性的。当加拿大总统特鲁多向特朗普寻求帮助时，特朗普总统说的是实话：“与中国人打交道并不那么容易。”

The reason is not complicated. This is because China is not as dependent on the United States as Japan. For example, markets are as interdependent as the United States and China. China has a population of 1.4 billion. From a development perspective, the United States will rely more on China. China is politically and militarily independent of each other and does not seek the protection of the United States.

原因并不复杂。这是因为中国不像日本那样依赖美国。例如，市场的相互依存程度与美国和中国差不多。中国有14亿人口，从发展的角度来看，美国将更加依赖中国。中国在政治和军事上相互独立，不寻求美国的保护。

As far as the dollar is concerned, the RMB is in a disadvantageous position, but China has trillions of dollars of foreign exchange reserves and will not panic when problems arise. In the fields of diplomacy, resources, industrial infrastructure and scientific research, China has taken the path of independent development for a long time, accumulated a relatively complete system, and has a strong ability to deal with various unexpected risks.

就美元而言，人民币处于不利地位，但中国拥有数万亿美元的外汇储备，在出现问题时不会惊慌失措。在外交、资源、产业基础设施、科研等领域，中国长期走自主发展道路，积累了较为完整的体系，应对各种突发风险能力较强。

澳大利亚学者约翰•费恩的回答

The reasons why the United States succeeded in forcing Japan to kneel down are as follows:

美国成功迫使日本下跪的原因有：

According to the provisions of the US Japan mutual cooperation and Security Treaty (1960), at the invitation of the Japanese government, about 31000 US military personnel remained in Japan as US troops stationed in Japan, rather than as occupying forces. The US military bases in Tokyo, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Aomori, Sapporo and Ishikari and their surrounding areas are very active;

根据《美日相互合作与安全条约》（1960年）的规定，应日本政府的邀请，约有31000名美国军事人员以驻日美军的身份留在日本，而不是以占领军的身份。位于东京、广岛、长崎、青森、札幌和石kari及其周围的美军基地十分活跃；

By 1990, the United States had produced 70000 nuclear warheads. So far, Japan has 0 nuclear warheads. The United States is acting as Japan’s nuclear umbrella;

到1990年，美国生产了70000枚核弹头，而迄今为止，日本拥有0枚核弹头，美国正充当日本的核保护伞；

Japanese enterprises are excessively dependent on the American market;

日本企业过度依赖美国市场；

The limitations and disadvantages of Japan’s export-oriented economy.

日本外向型经济的局限性和劣势。

Compared with China and the United States, Japan is a much smaller country, a small chain of trivial islands, and has almost no natural resources. After being bombed into submission, Japan needs the support of big powers. Japan cleverly uses the United States as a channel and dependence for international trade, and provides a military base to appease American bigotry.

和中美相比，日本是一个小得多的国家，是一个琐碎群岛组成的小链条，几乎没有自然资源。被炸得屈服后，需要得到大国支持，日本聪明地利用美国作为国际贸易的渠道和依靠，同时提供了一个军事基地来安抚美国的偏执。

Japan after World War II was created by the constitution of the United States. The United States restricted their military power. They turned Japan into a crippled pacifist, which made the United States have a strong influence in Japan. Japanese politicians and business circles are working for Congress and wall street. Therefore, Japan must abide by every rule of the United States. If Japan rewrites these rules, the consequences will be unimaginable.

二战后的日本是由美国宪法创造的，美国限制了他们的军事力量，他们把日本变成了一个残废的和平主义者，这使得美国在日本的影响力强大，日本的政界和商界都在为国会和华尔街卖命，所以日本必须遵守美国的每一条规则，如果日本改写了这些规则，后果不堪设想。

China has a large population and a vast territory. Unlike Japan, China is a force that is difficult to surrender. Now, China has become an economic and military force that can not be ignored, and it is almost impossible to be bullied.

中国人口众多，幅员辽阔，与日本不同，中国是一支很难屈服的力量。现在，中国已经成为一支不容忽视的经济和军事力量，几乎不可能被欺负。

On the other hand, Japan relies on the United States for trade and allows the United States to set terms and conditions that are equivalent to obstacles, but as long as they are not at the point of subjugation, Japan can accept them.

另一方面，日本在贸易上依赖美国，允许美国规定相当于阻碍的条款和条件，但只要没到亡国灭种的地步，日本就可以接受。

近代不平等条约

However, China is inherently angry and tired of the “unequal treaties”. In the early days of the founding of the people’s Republic of China, they completely tore up these humiliating treaty documents. At present, a large number of American companies are doing business in China rather than Japan. Obstructing China will only make it self defeating. Trump has experienced this.

而中国对“不平等条约”感到先天的愤怒和厌倦，建国初期他们就彻底撕碎了这些屈辱的条约文件。现在，大量美国公司在中国而非日本开展业务，阻碍中国只会弄巧成拙，特朗普尝过这种滋味。

China is very independent, and the influence of the West on its country is zero. In addition, they have a strong political and economic system, which has made them strong after the reform and opening up. China will become the world’s leading power by 2030, which means that the world will bear the influence of the United States, but it also has the influence from China.

中国非常独立，西方对其国家的影响力为零，此外，他们拥有强大的政治经济体系，在改革开放后，这些体系使他们变得强大。中国将在2030年成为世界领先的大国，这意味着世界将承受美国的影响力，但同时也有来自中国的影响力。

After World War II, China was a poor country, which was despised by the powerful United States and the Soviet Union. They also threatened or even wanted to carry out a surgical nuclear strike on China. History has shown and proved that the Chinese people have a strong resilience, can withstand extreme suffering and burst out with amazing strength.

二战后，中国是一个贫穷的国家，深受强大的美国和苏联的鄙视和敌视，他们也曾威胁甚至想要对中国进行外科手术式的核打击。历史已经表明并证明，中国人民具有很强的韧性，能够承受极端的苦难，并且迸发出惊人的力量。

Trade war is a form of conflict between countries. Conflicts between countries do not necessarily begin and end with trade agreements, but sometimes end with peace treaties or ceasefire agreements. Please note that war is another form of conflict between countries. The most extreme and bloody conflict is usually the ultimate conflict. The United States will never start a hot war with China.

贸易战是国家间冲突的一种形式。国家间的冲突不一定以贸易协议开始和结束，有时以和平条约或停火协议结束，请注意，战争是国家间冲突的另一种形式，最极端和血腥的冲突，通常是最终的冲突。美国永远不可能和中国掀起热战。

China has learned from its painful history what will happen when its military strength is weak. This is also the main reason why they so emphasize the upgrading and modernization of military capabilities. Even the powerful United States now makes it impossible to fight with China.

中国从其痛苦的历史中了解到，当他们的国家军事力量薄弱时，会发生什么，这也是他们如此强调军事能力升级和现代化的主要原因，以至于即使是强大的美国现在也对与中国开战列为不可能选项。

​今涛拍案