俄学者：美国的全球霸权正缩减为“半全球化”_风闻

编者按：**5月6日晚，中国公共外交协会、中国人民大学主办，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院承办召开“求和平、促发展：全球20国智库在线对话会”。外交部副部长乐玉成作特别演讲并现场问答。俄罗斯伊兹博尔斯克俱乐部“俄罗斯梦和中国梦”研究中心主任、中俄友好、和平与发展委员会专家理事会俄方主席尤里·塔夫罗夫斯基剖析美国霸权内涵，并提出相关观点。**

日渐衰弱的美国试图将世界分为“民主”和“威权”两个部分，加速了建立另一种全球治理体系的进程。美国将得到的不是全球霸权，而只是“半全球化”。

**中国的强势崛起，俄罗斯的顽强抵抗，让美国精英们意识到需要寻求一种新的世界秩序模式，而不是单极秩序。**特朗普总统试图通过贸易战的手段阻碍中国崛起。他就像西部片中的英雄一样，挺身而出，独步向前，向中国人和俄罗斯人开枪。特朗普不让七国集团中的其他国家一起参与，他称北约盟友是“吃白食的”。美国还退出了世界卫生组织、联合国儿童基金会和跨太平洋伙伴关系协定。这一行为正在破坏既定的世界秩序，被称为“去全球化”。

拜登总统得到了危机管理者的工作。首先，他果断摒弃了特朗普的做法，试图“修复损失”。然后，他宣布通过“重建更好世界”（B3W）计划对美国进行“资产重组”，接着通过找回盟友和寻找新伙伴的形式进行“资产整合”。正是他们必须承担起与俄罗斯和中国对抗的战术任务。白宫打算从“山巅上的光辉之城”的顶端解决战略问题。

**从拜登执政后的种种迹象来看，其主要策略是将世界分成两个部分。**他手下的幕僚们提议美国需要“整顿前线”，以便控制世界的另一半。2021年12月，美国组织了史无前例的“全球民主峰会”，100多个国家和地区加入了“民主”阵营，反对“专制”阵营。毋庸置疑，“专制政权”的名单中，中国和俄罗斯居首。类似这样的活动美国将不断地定期举行，全球新冠肺炎峰会也将于5月12日在线上进行。

**对于新战略来说，美国必须加强现有的政治和军事结构并建立新的机制。**为此，美国计划将“七国集团”扩大到“十国集团”，加入澳大利亚、印度和韩国三个国家。接着，将俄罗斯排除出“二十国集团”的行列，再让瑞典和芬兰加入北约作为补充。效仿北约模式，美国及其盟友试图在印太地区建立一个新机制。四国集团（QUAD）和奥库斯联盟（AUKUS）已经初步建立，未来美国将以牺牲日本、韩国、菲律宾和越南为代价进一步扩充该机制，打造一个亚洲版的北约。

**俄罗斯和中国显然被美国划为了对立的另一半阵营。但他们对世界秩序有自己的看法，并据此建立了相应的国际机制。**俄罗斯在大欧亚概念下打造了以欧亚经济联盟为核心的经济集团和以集体安全条约组织为核心的军事集团。中国则是在“人类命运共同体”的概念下提出“一带一路”倡议。俄罗斯和中国同时也是上海合作组织和金砖国家的成员国。上合组织包含了四个核大国，金砖国家则将欧洲、亚洲、南美和非洲四大洲的国家紧密团结在了一起。两者都代表着全球秩序的新模式，一种有限但却有效的可替代模式。

美国把世界分为两个对立阵营的行为才刚刚开始。但显而易见的是，起源于二战结束后的传统全球化模式已被载入史册。日渐衰弱的美国试图将世界分为“民主”和“威权”两个部分，加速了建立另一种全球治理体系的进程。美国将得到的不是全球霸权，而只是“半全球化”。

以下为英文版

AMERICAN GLOBAL HEGEMONY IS SHRINKING TO SEMI-GLOBALIZATION

**China’s great breakthrough and Russia’s stubborn resistance have put the American elite in front of the need to look for a new model of the world order instead of the unipolar one.**President Trump tried to push China off the upward trajectory through a trade war. Like the heroes of westerns, he stood up to his full height and went forward alone, shooting at the Chinese, then at the Russians. At the same time, he decided to do without other fighters from the “magnificent seven”. He called his old NATO friends “freeloaders.” He withdrew from WHO, UNICEF and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This policy was destroying the established world order and was called “deglobalization”.

President Joe Biden got the job of a crisis manager. To begin with, he abandoned the course of his predecessor and “fixed losses”. Then he announced the “recapitalization” of the United States through the Build Back Better program. This was followed by the “consolidation of assets” in the form of remaining allies in the world and search for new partners. It is they who must take on the tactical tasks of the confrontation with Russia and China. The White House intends to solve strategic problems from the top of the “shining city on the hill”.

**The main strategy, judging by the events of Biden’s rule, is to divide the world into two parts.**Strategists of his administration proposed to “straighten the front line” in order to keep the remaining half of the world under control. The unprecedented parade of the faithful to the “Stars and Stripes” was organized in December 2021 and was called the “Summit for Democracy”. Over 100 countries and regions have joined the “democracy” camp, which opposes the “autocracy” camp. Needless to say, the list of “authoritarian regimes” was headed by China and Russia. Similar events will be held regularly. A virtual COVID-19 summit will open on May 12.

For the new strategy, it is important to strengthen the existing political and military structures and create new ones. It is planned to expand the “Big Seven” to the “ten” at the expense of Australia, India and South Korea. To adjust the composition of the “Big Twenty”, excluding Russia. To complement the “good old” NATO with Sweden and Finland. For NATO, they intend to create a younger twin brother in the Indo-Pacific region. The QUAD military-political group and the AUCUS military bloc have already been established there. Having strengthened the still loose QUAD and in the future expanding the AUCUS at the expense of Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Vietnam, it will be possible to talk about AsiaNATO..

**The outline of the other half of the world is gradually emerging. Moscow and Beijing have their own vision of the world order and create international structures in accordance with it.**For Moscow, this is the concept of Greater Eurasia, the economic bloc of the Eurasian Economic Union and the military bloc of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. For Beijing, this is the concept of a “Community of the Common Destiny of Mankind”, as well as the “Belt and Road” initiative. Together, Russia and China are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which has recently united four nuclear powers. Another structure is BRICS. It unites the countries of four continents - Europe, Asia, South America and Africa. These two organizations represent a rather limited but functioning model of an alternative global order.

America’s division of the world into two opposing halves is just beginning. But it is already clear that globalization in its classical form, which originated after the end of the Second World War, goes down in history. The efforts of the weakening United States to divide the world into “democratic” and “authoritarian” halves accelerates the process of building an alternative system of global governance. Instead of global hegemony, Washington will get only “semi-globalization”.