拜登上任或带来转机，俄伊呼吁挽救伊核协议_风闻
钢铁沧澜-2021-02-03 11:42
拜登上任或带来转机，俄伊呼吁挽救伊核协议
作者：兰顺正
首发自：CGTN
2015年7月，伊朗与美国、英国、法国、俄罗斯、中国和德国达成伊朗核问题全面协议。根据协议，伊朗承诺限制其核计划，国际社会解除对伊制裁。无疑，伊核协议的达成是多边主义的重要成果，是通过政治外交手段和平解决国际热点问题的典范，也充分体现了大国协调合作的重要意义。但是2018年5月美国特朗普政府单方面退出伊核协议，随后重启并新增一系列对伊制裁措施，而伊朗则从2019年5月以来逐步中止履行协议部分条款。
不过，美国政权的交替让希望再次出现。与特朗普不同，新总统拜登是军备控制条约的主要支持者，冷战期间拜登作为参议员曾赴苏联就美苏《中导条约》进行谈判，而在特朗普退出《中导条约》时拜登表现出强烈的反对。在竞选期间，拜登誓言要推翻特朗普任期内制定的部分外交政策，并一度称自己担任副总统时多次开展外交努力，实现了包括签署《新削减战略武器条约》等一系列成果，并指责特朗普“浪费了这些遗产”。在上台以后，拜登立即开始对特朗普的“政治遗毒”予以清算，6天内签署了33项行政令，涵盖了抗疫、经济、移民等各领域。这其中特别引人注目的是，在1月26日俄罗斯总统普京和拜登首次通电话，讨论了双边关系发展及全球热点问题等。根据美国白宫当天发表的声明，拜登和普京在通话中讨论了两国将《新削减战略武器条约》延长5年的意愿，同意双方团队应尽快在2月5日前完成条约的延长工作，并同意就一系列军控和新兴安全议题展开战略稳定讨论。
无疑，作为世界战略稳定的“压舱石”，《新削减战略武器条约》的续签让全球都松了一口气，也让世人相信拜登确实与特朗普不同。由于伊核协议同样是拜登标榜的功绩之一，而拜登此前也曾暗示过将与伊朗重启对话，并称重新加入伊核协议是缓解紧张局势的第一步，所以这让伊朗看到了转机。伊朗总统鲁哈尼在去年12月17日就表示，他“毫不怀疑”地认为即将上任的“拜登政府”将会推动华盛顿重返伊核协议。而拜登上任两天后，伊朗外交部长扎里夫在美国《外交事务》杂志上也发表了伊朗对于挽救核协议的看法，称拜登政府可以拥抱特朗普政府时期的失败政策，或者可以选择一个更好的道路，来终结特朗普时期“最大程度施压”的失败政策。此次根据报道，俄罗斯外长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫在会谈前表示，最紧迫的议题之一是挽救伊核协议。同时扎里夫则感谢莫斯科在美国退出后为修复伊核协议付出的努力，并感谢俄罗斯在该协议上所持的“建设性和原则性”立场。不难看出，虽然目前美伊之间依旧矛盾重重，但是此次俄罗斯与伊朗在伊核协议问题上的步调一致，表明双方对于美国重返伊核协议已经有了谨慎的乐观，这也为伊核协议的复苏注入了“强心剂”。
（以下为英文原版）
Biden’s appointment may bring turnaround on Iranian nuclear agreement
Lan Shunzheng
***Editor’s note:*Lan Shunzheng is a research fellow at Charhar Institute and a member of the Chinese Institute of Command and Control. The article reflects the author’s opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
According to Arab News, the foreign ministers of Russia and Iran held their first meeting on January 26 since U.S. President Joe Biden took office, during which the two jointly called for the rescue of the Iran nuclear agreement. Obviously, with Biden’s appointment and the joint voice of Russia and Iran, the Iran nuclear agreement may rekindle hope.
In July 2015, Iran reached a comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue with the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany. According to the agreement, Iran promised to limit its nuclear program, and the international community lifted sanctions against Iran.
Undoubtedly, the conclusion of the Iranian nuclear agreement is an important result of multilateral actions, a model of peaceful resolution of international hot spot issues through political and diplomatic means, and fully demonstrates the importance of coordination and cooperation between the major powers.
However, in May 2018, the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement and subsequently restarted and added a series of sanctions against Iran, while Iran has gradually suspended the implementation of some of the terms of the agreement since May 2019.
The setback of the Iranian nuclear agreement has had a very negative impact on the maintenance of the international nuclear non-proliferation system and peace and stability in the Middle East. After the United States restarted sanctions, U.S.-Iran relations deteriorated rapidly and once again fell into a vicious circle of tense confrontation, which increased the risk of regional war.
For example, in early 2021, Iran held four military exercises, seized a South Korean oil tanker, and announced that it would increase the enriched uranium abundance to 20 percent in order to demonstrate to the United States. At the same time, the sanctions have dealt a major blow to the Iranian economy, leading to increasing problems such as Iran’s foreign exchange shortage, currency depreciation, and increased inflation.
Especially as the focus of the blow, Iran’s current oil exports have dropped by 92 percent compared to its peak. According to the assessment of the Iranian Parliamentary Research Center, U.S. sanctions have caused Iran’s GDP to fall by 0.8 percent in the 2018-2019 fiscal year and 2.5 percent in the 2019-2020 fiscal year. In September 2020, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stated that since the U.S. withdrew from the nuclear agreement and reinstated sanctions in 2018, U.S. sanctions have caused Iranian losses of $150 billion.
In addition, due to the deterioration of the economic situation and the increase in the unemployment rate, there have been waves of protests among the Iranian people in recent years, which has led to turbulence in Iran’s internal political situation.
However, the change of the U.S. presidency gives hope again. Unlike Trump, President Biden is the main supporter of the arms control treaty. As a senator during the Cold War, Biden went to the Soviet Union to negotiate on the U.S.-Soviet Intermediate Range Treaty. When Trump withdrew from the Treaty, Biden expressed strong opposition. During the campaign, Biden vowed to overthrow some of the foreign policies formulated during Trump’s tenure and once said that he had made many diplomatic efforts when he was vice president and achieved a series of results, including the signing of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. He also accused Trump of “wasting these legacies.”
After taking office, Biden immediately began to liquidate Trump’s “political legacy” and signed 33 administrative orders within six days, covering various fields such as the fight against the epidemic, the economy, and immigration.
What is particularly striking is the first telephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his U.S. counterpart Biden on January 26 to discuss the development of bilateral relations and global hot issues. According to a statement issued by the White House on the same day, the two discussed their willingness to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty for five years and agreed that the teams of both parties should complete the extension of the treaty. They also agreed to launch strategic and stable discussions on a series of arms control and emerging security issues.
Undoubtedly, as the “ballast stone” of world strategic stability, the renewal of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty has given the world a sigh of relief and convinced the world that Biden would be different from Trump. Since the Iran nuclear agreement is also one of Biden’s advertised achievements, and Biden has previously hinted that he will restart dialogue with Iran and said that rejoining the Iran nuclear agreement is the first step to ease tensions.
This has made Iran expect a turning point. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stated on December 17, 2020, that he “has no doubt” that the incoming Biden administration will push Washington to return to the Iran nuclear agreement. Two days after Biden took office, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif also published Iran’s views on saving the nuclear agreement in the Foreign Affairs magazine, saying that the Biden administration can embrace the failed policies of the Trump administration or can choose a better path to end the failed policy of “maximum pressure” during the Trump era.
According to reports this time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated before the meeting that one of the most urgent issues is to save the Iran nuclear agreement. During the talks, Zarif thanked Moscow for its efforts to repair the Iran nuclear agreement after the United States withdrew and thanked Russia for its “constructive and principled” stance on the agreement.
It is not difficult to see that although there are still many contradictions between the United States and Iran, the same pace of Russia and Iran on the Iran nuclear agreement this time indicates that the two sides have been cautiously optimistic about the return of the U.S. to the Iran nuclear agreement.
This has also injected a “cardio-tonic agent” into the recovery of the Iran nuclear agreement.