张维为对话斯蒂格利茨：特朗普再当选，会有什么黑暗后果？-张维为、斯蒂格利茨

当地时间11月3日，2020美国大选日。

眼下两位候选人不分伯仲，而这场选举也被视为关系美国乃至世界格局变动的重要事件。

日前，复旦大学中国研究院院长张维为对话诺贝尔经济学奖得主、世界银行首席经济学家斯蒂格利茨，提及此次大选，斯蒂格利茨教授认为相比特朗普，拜登更具有民主价值，也能重新把美国带回正轨。张维为教授则认为，美国选举制度下产生的领导人越来越短视，恐怕很难将美国带出危机。

本文为对话第二部分“选举就能救美国吗？”，更多内容请点击#张维为对话斯蒂格利茨#。

**斯蒂格利茨：**我们现在看到，美国社会对民主党候选人、前副总统拜登的支持喷涌而出。这种程度的参与，人们觉得美国迎来了一个转折点，整个国家处于威权统治之下——我们有特朗普这么一号威权主义人物——他试图分裂这个国家。我们还有另一号人物，拜登，他高度忠于民主价值观，试图弥合社会的分歧。尤其是那些平时不参与政治的年轻人，他们这次的参与程度是现象级的。其实全社会各个年龄段都参与其中，以前从不参与的人现在变得非常积极。我希望能够形成一股制衡的力量，刹住我前面描述的这股不正之风。

**杨晗轶：**如果特朗普连选连任怎么办？这对美国体制来说意味着什么？金钱统治似乎已经根深蒂固，它庇护并延续着美国这种新自由主义资本主义的生命。如果美国无法通过渐进式改良实现自我更新，未来会发生什么？大家都知道美国这种资本主义模式不可持续，但究竟会发生什么？会发生内爆，引发更大的危机，进而威胁世界和平吗？

**斯蒂格利茨：**首先我想说，我认为接下来会非常清楚，大多数美国人将选择民主道路，选择拜登，对此我比较有信心。许多美国人跟你问着同样的问题。特朗普再当一届总统会产生什么黑暗的后果？老实说，我们不知道。一部分原因在于，它取决于参议院众议院的选举结果，这是美国政治里的制衡机制，但遗憾的是僵局才是更可能的出现的结果。

过去两年总统在让国会立法方面可以说是比较失败的，这种僵局很可能持续下去。不幸的是，这意味着两点。一、美国无法解决它面临的重大问题，社会上明显存在的不满情绪将继续发酵。这将削弱美国应对挑战的能力。

它导致的另外一个问题在于，特朗普是个威权主义者。他不理解民主价值观，脑子里没有这根弦。他喜欢签行政命令，喜欢突破规范甚至法律。

不幸的是，他把自己人塞进司法部门，导致司法部门无法履行它本来的职能。说句实话，我很担心，很担心。但我还是要重复刚才的话。我对最终的结果抱有很大信心，相信我们美国人将作出正确的选择，相信我们眼里的这段噩梦将在明年1月20日结束。

**张维为：**先说选举，从我们收集的资料来看，拜登在民调等方面处于领先地位，但反对他的力量仍然很强劲。很快我们就会看到结果。

你在书中常常提到进步时代（老罗斯福、塔夫脱、威尔逊）、罗斯福新政（小罗斯福）和伟大社会（林登·约翰逊），这都是美国通过重大改革赢得挑战的先例，但相较于这三个历史先例，今天的美国正如你在书中详细描述的那样，金钱政治、金元民主的力量比当年强大得多，新兴社交媒体在很大程度上是受资本力量左右的，社会也要分裂得多。过去推动整个美国社会更多是靠中产阶级，不断往上走的中产阶级。现在整个社会可以说是分裂的，到处都在讲身份政治。这种重大改革都需要强有力的、有能力、有远见的领导人。我怀疑美国未来短期内出不了这样的领导人。

至于中美关系，我由衷希望我们两国能克服当前阶段的困难。白宫里面有一群冷战斗士，我认为这非常愚蠢，你根本没法遏制中国这样的国家。它是130个国家的最大贸易伙伴，拥有全世界最大的中产人口，而且是真的有财产的中产人口，它还是世界头号贸易大国。你没法遏制这样的国家。这是我要传递的最基本的信息。拜登提出美国面临四大挑战：大流行病、空前的不景气、气候变化以及种族鸿沟。我认为除了种族问题我们帮不上什么忙，另外三个大流行病、（经济）不景气和气候变化，美国都需要中国的帮助。中国也做好了帮助美国的准备。11月或者明年1月之后，不管美国谁掌权，希望中美两国关系都能得到极大的改善。这不仅是我们两个国家的事，也关乎全人类。

**杨晗轶：**张教授，您提到美国下一任……毫无疑问美国面临着危机，能够帮助美国渡过危机的人必然得是一个强有力的领导人。我想问的是，对美国的未来而言，拜登是这样一个强有力的领导人吗？

**张维为：**我不太确定。从我读的材料来看，他性格不是很强势，但这说不准，也许等到他成为领导人之后，会展示出我们还没见到过的另一面，成为强势领导人。我们在此祝愿美国能得到对它而言最好的结果。

美国未来的领导人不但要强势，还要有远见，能看到长远的未来。这回到了我对西方政治体制的批评上来，它现在已经产生不了眼光长远的领导人，产生出来的都是着眼当下、目光短浅、煽动民粹的领导人。这成了一种趋势，是非常遗憾的。

**斯蒂格利茨：**我认为，确实如你所说，一个好的领导人身上要集合许多特质，比如铸造共识，我认为拜登在这方面将表现得非同寻常的出色，尤其在上一届总统制造严重分歧之后，他要把国家重新凝聚起来。我认为在这方面他将做得非常出色。

我还是抱有极大的期望。在这一切尘埃落定之前，你不可能知道谁将是下一个罗斯福。但每个时代都呼唤着不同类型的领导人。我们无可避免地需要一个疗伤的过程。我希望拜登能够成为这样一个领导人，这正是这个国家所需要的。

（翻页查看英文版）

Stiglitz: what we’re seeing right now in the United States is an outpouring of Democratic support for Vice President Biden. The level of engagement, the sense that America is at a turning point, it is authoritarian, we have one person- Trump being an authoritarian figure- trying to divide the country. We have another person, Biden, trying to bring us together, a person who’s deeply committed to democratic values. Especially among the young people who often are not engaged in politics, the extent of their engagement is phenomenal, but it’s across the board: people who never before got engaged in politics are very much engaged,  phoning… That is- I hope- the check on all these abuses that I have described a minute ago.

**Yang Hanyi：**Trump got reelected? What will happen to the American system, because it seems to me that monetocracy is so entrenched that it protects and prolongs the kind of neoliberal capitalism? What if America fails to incrementally or progressively renew itself? We all know it’s unsustainable, but what will happen after that, will it implode into an even bigger crisis with negative implications for world peace? What will happen?

Stiglitz: First, let me say I feel fairly confident that in a couple of weeks’ time it will be very clear that a large majority of Americans will have chosen to go in the direction of democracy and the direction of Biden. Many of us are asking precisely the question you’re asking. What are the consequences, the dark consequences of another term of Trump. Quite honestly,we don’t know. Partly it depends on what will be the outcome in the Senate and the House of Representatives. This is where the checks and balances do come in, but I’m afraid it’s more likely to gridlock. The president basically has had very little success in getting legislation through Congress over the last two years, and that kind of gridlock is likely to continue. Unfortunately, what that means is two things. It means that America will not be able to address some of the major problems, and that means the discontent that is very apparent will grow. And it will undermine the ability of America to respond to the challenges that we face.

The other problem that it poses is that Trump is an authoritarian figure. He doesn’t understand and incorporate in his mindset very strong democratic values. He likes to use executive orders, likes to ignore norms and even laws.

Unfortunately he has packed the judiciary, so the judiciary isn’t performing its functions that it should. So quite frankly, I’m worried. I’m worried. But let me repeat what I said. I have a lot of faith in the end in America I do believe that we Americans will make the right decision, and that what we view as a nightmare will be over on January 20th.

Zhang Weiwei: First on the part of this election. From the sources we have collected, Biden leads in opinion surveys and in some areas, but there seems to be still a strong counter force. So we will see very soon. You often refer to the Progressive Movement, the New Deal, and Great Society, so all these are historical precedents where the United States engaged in meaningful reforms and overcame its challenges. But compared with these three historical precedents, you see, today’s United States, as you have elaborated in your book, you have a much stronger monetized politics, money-oriented democracy, and also the rise of the new social media, to a great extent also controlled by the power of capital, and the society is more divided. It used to be at that time more driven by the middle class, the rising middle class. Now, it’s a somehow divided society, it’s about identity politics. And all of these need strong, competent, and visionary leaders, I wonder whether you see this kind of leadership in the near future.

For China-US relations, I indeed hope that we will overcome at this particular stage. In the White House you have some cold warriors, I think it’s very stupid, you cannot contain a country like China, which has over 130 countries as its largest trading partner, and you have the world’s largest middle class 400 million people, real middle class with properties, and the world’s largest trading nation. You cannot contain this kind of country. So this is my basic message. I think, when Biden spoke about the four major challenges for the United States, the pandemic, the unprecedented recession, climate change, and racial divide. I think, except for racial divide, we cannot do much about it, for the rest three, pandemic, recession and climate change, United States needs China’s help. And China is also ready to help. Hopefully whoever in power after November or January we’ll have much better US-China relations. It’s not only for our two countries, but also for mankind.

Yang Hanyi: Professor Zhang, you’ve mentioned that the next… Because America certainly faces a crisis, and the man who help America navigate out of the crisis will have to be a very strong leader. My question is, is Biden such a strong leader for the future of America?

Zhang Weiwei: I’m not very sure. From whatever I can read, he’s not a strong character. But who knows, maybe when he becomes a leader, he can show his particular side which we do not  know he can be a strong leader, or his team can be strong. So let’s hope for the best for the America’s own interest.

The new leader in the United States should become not only strong, but also visionary, with a long-term vision. That’s my critique of the Western political system. You cannot somehow produce now leaders with long vision. They are very short-term, short-sighted and populist. That’s the trend. It’s a pity.

Stiglitz: So I think actually, as you were saying, there are many things that make for a good leader, building consensus,  and Biden will, I think, be extraordinarily good over that, especially after a president who’s been very divisive, bringing the country together. I think he will do an extraordinary job in that.

I’m, again, very hopeful. Obviously you don’t know who’s gonna be a Franklin Roosevelt after the thing is over. But each period of time calls for a different kind of leader. We will inevitably need to go through a healing process. I am hopeful the Biden will be the kind of leader that the country needs a this particular moment.

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