罗思义：中国的经济活力让我很显老

【文/ 罗思义】

首先，我必须说，来到澳门有种回到家的感觉，虽然我之前从未来过这里。我等下会解释原因。

从2000年到2008年，这8年间，我曾被任命为伦敦经济与商业政策署署长。当署长期间，我的最主要成果之一是伦敦规划，即伦敦的战略发展规划。

经济是什么？经济与超大型经济区的发展有什么关系？这个领域我再熟悉不过了。

罗思义在“新时代大讲堂”（图片来源：中国日报）

经济规划为何强调“五年”

也许听起来有些奇怪，但对于经济而言，预测未来五年比预测未来半年更容易。原因在于，经济的短期趋势会受制于各方面因素。最极端的情况下，连天气以及种种相关的内在联系都会对经济有很大影响。

你以五年或十年为周期开始规划，那才会对一个战略区域的发展起到至关重要的作用。这是由影响经济的最基本因素决定的。所以，今天我不会过多谈论大湾区短期的发展，尽管现在的局势吸引了一些国际关注。

我最想做的事情是，跳出短期的发展，退后一步，看看大湾区有哪些战略性的发展。你在审视某个区域的发展时，必须理解其独特性，因为世界上每个主要经济区都是独一无二的。

换个角度看大湾区

在我看来大湾区的关键特点是什么？我觉得最关键的是，它是全世界两个最重要的科技中心之一。另一个是大洋对岸的加利福尼亚州。全世界范围内没有其他的高科技发展中心能够和加州或者大湾区相匹敌。

1. 左手微信右手WhatsApp，经济学家比出了这方面的差距

我认为大湾区的这一特点决定了它的其他特点。最明显的是它的高科技发展。以华为为代表，现在华为是世界上最先进的科技通信公司。或者以腾讯为例，在西方我用WhatsApp，在中国我用微信。现在我觉得微信要比WhatsApp好用多了，得有50%。华为的总裁说得很明白，美国指控华为窃取知识产权，这很荒唐。那些技术美国还没有，但我们有。

2. 独特性一出现，牵一发而动全身

但如果你看整个地区，它是相互关联的。这个区域，尤其是香港，在国际金融中心方面也有领先优势。澳门则是全球最重要的休闲娱乐中心之一。这些领域联系紧密，并不是偶然。除了普通制造业和零售业，还有你所能想到的其他行业。为什么？因为，一旦一个庞大的高科技中心出现，它会决定整个区域的诸多特点。

我对澳门发展很感兴趣，比如澳门的艺术。因为这样一个区域必定会有繁荣的文化。整个地区将做出调整，来适应其文化水平极高且训练有素的劳动力。因此 ，在大湾区不可能只有科技实验室。大家下班后就回家，整晚看电视消遣。人们不会满足于此。另一个问题是基础设施建设。大家都知道港珠澳大桥。但我知道，有人说中国的基建已经足够完备，这种说法太愚蠢了，简直是笑话。

图片来源：中国日报

一个区域越是发达，它对基建的需求也会改变，它需要不同类型的基建。你需要大量的基建，基建在未来是必不可少的。比如信息与通信技术的发展。因为如果出现国际信息通信技术中心，大湾区马上就会成为其中之一。如果国际金融中心在香港得到进一步发展，那将会产生大量的信息通信技术基建需求，不仅是交通运输需求。

关于这一点，另一个问题，我称之为“访客业”。如果一个城市拥有巨大的国际通信综合体，涉及到国际和金融，香港就是如此，这种商业需要的基建。游客也会从中受益。伦敦是国际旅客到访最多的城市之一，访问伦敦的人差不多三分之二是为了旅游观光，三分之一是为了商务。但他们住的是同一批酒店，使用一样的几个机场，对基建的需求高度重合。所以我会选用“访客业”这个词。

两大湾区怎么比？学者拉出了一组数据

我们来看一些更基础更具体的事情，即大湾区的关键。首先，要意识到大湾区的规模何其庞大。如果你把大湾区的地区生产总值当做一个整体拿出来对比，那么全世界只有12个国家的国内生产总值比大湾区高。但这并不是大湾区真正的活力所在。

1. 比增速

美国最新国内生产总值统计数据所显示的增速是2.1%，中国的增速是6%。这表明，中国的经济增速是美国的三倍。大湾区不仅是经济规模非常庞大，而且它的增速比美国快得多。这就是它的活力所在。有一个方面特别明显，我觉得自己在中国特别过时。我依然在用现金，这显得我简直有120岁。我时不时得去银行汇款到伦敦。我的翻译跟我说，你看这银行里只有老人和外国人。

就是这样。我能不能再次呼吁？我希望微信支付和支付宝的更新，多少也能方便一下外国人。希望他们能让外国人，更容易开账号。这样我就不用像现在这么过时了。我之前讲过，你用微信的话会觉得它更好用，功能更丰富。这不是我一个人的想法，因为我有从国外来中国的朋友，他们都注册了微信账号改用微信。他们说微信比WhatsApp好用。

图片来源：网络

2. 高铁建设对比

至于高铁系统，中国的高铁比欧洲和美国先进太多。荒唐的是，美国宣传它的高铁时速超过140公里，而中国高铁的时速是它的两倍。我想说的是，你已经看到在大湾区，或者在某种情况下，这儿的一些领域的科技水平已经领先于加州。

从经济学的角度聊香港，答案很清晰

我最后想讲的一点是：

那些在香港不断制造麻烦的人是不会得逞的。他们连自己的真实目的都不敢说，所谓的“分裂主义”的目的，他们没有任何成功的机会。

同时，香港的经济基础也不会发生改变。香港不可能被从中国分裂出去拖到太平洋其他地方去。香港的关键和大湾区的关键是和中国内地相连。

领头雁与大湾区

再给大家看一个比较图，这种类比常用于亚洲分析。它叫雁形模式理论，技术最先进的国家会带动其他国家进步。中国的大湾区就是那只领头雁，带动其他地区发展。

不讲套话的总结

最后，总结一下我的演讲。各位现在就在全球最重要的两个高科技中心之一，只有这里和加州最发达。这促进了大湾区的整体发展，因为这里需要金融、需要娱乐、需要基础设施建设、需要这里的一切。所以，我再次强调，大湾区是全世界最关键的地区之一。这并不是客套话。我希望我的演讲能让各位明白因为这是事实。非常感谢！

（本文原载于《中国日报》，观察者网已获授权转载）

英文原文：

Right, well, first I have to say I feel extremely at home here although I’ve never been to Macao. I’ll explain why.

I was appointed to be head of London’s Economic Policy for eight years from 2000 to 2008. One of the key products of that is something called the London Plan，which was the strategic plan for the development of London.

So therefore, this question of what the economy is and what its relationship to the development of very large economic areas is something that I’ve extremely familiar with.

It might sound peculiar, but in the economy, it is easier to predict what will happen in the next five years than it is to predict what will happen in the next six months.

The reason for that is the short-term trends in the economy can be affected by all sorts of things. I mean, in the most extreme cases, sometimes by the weather and all sorts of inter-conjunctions.

Whereas once you begin to take five-year or ten-year period, and that’s what’s important for the development of a strategic area.

It’s determined by the most fundamental factors that affect the economy.

So I’m not going to discuss very much about what purely temporary developments are in the Greater Bay Area , as some of them are attracting some international attention at the present time.

OK, the fundamental thing, therefore, I want to do is, I want to step back from the short-term developments and look what are the strategic developments of the Greater Bay Area.

If you want to look at the development of an area, you have to understand what is unique about it because every major economic area in the world is unique.

What I think is the key feature of the Greater Bay Area.

For me the most decisive thing - it is one of the two great technological centers of the world.The other one is exactly across the Pacific Ocean, in California.

There are no other centers of the development of high technology in the whole world which match either California or the Greater Bay Area.

This is what defines, as my view, all the other features.The most obvious one is the question of its high technological development.

It is symbolized, for example, by Huawei, which is now the world’s most advanced technological telecommunications company.

Or Tencent, for example. I have to use WhatsApp when I’m in the West and I have to use WeChat in China and now I know that WeChat is 50% better than WhatsApp in the West.

It was put very, very well by the head of Huawei, he said the United States accuses Huawei of stealing from it. This is ridiculous. We have things that the United States doesn’t have.

But if you take this region, it’s an interconnected fashion. It’s also got leads in international financial centers, particularly in Hong Kong.

In Macao, it’s got one of the most important leisure centers in the whole world.

And it is not an accident that these are connected. That’s in addition to all the normal manufacturing and retail and things you would’ve expected.

Why? Because once you have a huge high technology center, this is going to determine many, many features about the entire region.

I was very interested to hear about the developments of Macao, for example, in the field of art because that’s what it’s going to have.

The whole region will have adjustments to an extremely high cultural level of an extremely skilled workforce.

And therefore, it’s not a big center like that: you’re just gonna have technological laboratories and then everybody’s going to go home and spend the evening watching the TV. They are not gonna do that.

Another is the question of the infrastructure. OK, of course everybody knows about the bridge. But I know that sometimes it’s a foolish idea in China that China has enough infrastructure.

I think this is a joke.

As the region becomes more developed, of course the needs for a different type of infrastructure will change. You’re gonna have huge infrastructure. This is going to be needed.

It’s going to be, for example, the development of information and communications technology.

Because if you have the development of international ICT centers, which is what’s going to happen here, if you have the development of an international financial center further in Hong Kong, this is going to have tremendous ICT with infrastructure requirements and not just transport ones.

Another question though that’s going to be on the relation to what I will call visitourism.

If you have a huge international complex of ICT, which is international and financial, which is Hong Kong, basically the same infrastructure which is required for the business part can be used for tourists.

Roughly in London, which is one of the most internationally visited cities in the world, two-thirds of the people who come to the city come for a visit for tourism and one third come for business but they’re using the same hotels，the same airports, the same overlap in infrastructure.

That is why I would use the term visitorism.

Let’s then look at these fundamentals-what are the more specific things. That is the key of the question of the Greater Bay Area.

Firstly, it’s important to realize just how big it is. If you take the GDP of the Greater Bay Area, if it were a separate country, there are only 12 countries in the world which would have a higher GDP than the Greater Bay Area.

But even that doesn’t capture what is the real dynamic of the Greater Bay Area.

If you take the latest GDP statistics of the United States, its growth rate is 2.1%. China’s growth rate is 6%.

This means that China’s economy is growing three times as fast as the United States.

So therefore, not only is the Greater Bay Area already very, very large, but it is growing much faster than that of the United States.

And that’s what gives it its particular dynamic.

One is the most obvious: I feel so old-fashioned in China. I actually use cash and, this makes me, look about 120 years old.

And occasionally I have to track and make go into a bank to make transactions with London and the person who came and interpreted said, look at this bank, the only people in this bank are old people and foreigners.

So that’s it.

Can I make an appeal? I wish that the new changes made by WeChat and Alipay would make it a little bit easier for foreigners to open up accounts. Then I won’t have to stay quite so old-fashioned as I am at the present time.

OK. I already mentioned that if you take WeChat, it’s just much better, it’s much skilled.

That’s not just me in my opinion because I have friends who come to China and they change and they take up WeChat accounts.

They say it’s just better than using WhatsApp.

OK. As for the high-speed train system, this is just so much more advanced of anything in Europe and the United States.

I mean, it’s even ridiculous, the United States advertises its high-speed train or something that goes more than about 140 km/h whereas the Chinese ones are going twice as fast.

What I want to say about that is you already see in the Greater Bay Area or a situation whereby the technological level of the Greater Bay Area in some areas is already ahead of California.

The people who have kept creating the problem in Hong Kong have no chance of success.

They don’t really even dare to say their real aims，which are separatist aims and they have no chance of carrying out this whatever.

Meanwhile the economic fundamentals of Hong Kong are not going to change.

Hong Kong can’t be towed away from China and parked somewhere else in the Pacific.

The key of Hong Kong and the key of this region is that it’s linked to mainland China.

Just to give you another comparison. This is an analogy often used of Asia.

It’s called the “flying geese” development. It shows the most technologically advanced country pulls the other forward.

The Greater Bay Area in China is the lead geese in the development of these geese.

Finally, therefore, just to summarize what I said.

You’re here in the middle of one of the two  most important high technology development centers in the world. Nowhere except here and California is as advanced as that.

This stimulates the integrated development of the entire GBA because it needs finance, needs recreation, it needs infrastructure, it needs everything else in the region.

So again, I’m saying that the GBA is one of the most important regions in the entire world, not to be polite.

I hope what I’ve tried to show you is this because it’s the truth.

Thank you very much.