以色列和摩洛哥关系趋于正常化，西撒问题再次成为国际热点_风闻
钢铁沧澜-2020-12-15 11:10
作者：兰顺正
首发自:CGTN
西撒哈拉位于非洲西北部，滨临大西洋，与摩洛哥、毛利塔尼亚、阿尔及利亚相邻。目前人口约50万，面积26万平方公里。西撒地区长期存在争议，1884 年西班牙在这一地带建立了北起塔法亚，南至达克拉的殖民统治。1958 年西撒正式成为西班牙的行省，被称为“西属撒哈拉”。当时西撒的邻国摩洛哥和毛里塔尼亚以“历史依据”为由，都对西撒有领土主张。1973 年 5 月，主要由撒哈拉威人组成的西撒民族独立组织—西撒哈拉人民解放阵线（简称“西撒人阵”）成立，主张通过武装斗争驱逐西班牙殖民者，实现民族解放。1976 年 2 月 26 日，西班牙宣布撤离西撒，结束殖民统治。次日，摩洛哥与毛里塔尼亚签署分治西撒的协定，将北部 17 万平方公里领土划归摩洛哥，其余划归毛里塔尼亚。两国军队随后进入西撒境内“分区占领”。此举遭到西撒人阵的坚决反对和阿尔及利亚的强烈谴责。随后，在阿尔及利亚的支持下，西撒人阵宣布成立“阿拉伯撒哈拉民主共和国”，西撒战争爆发。1978 年毛里塔尼亚因战事不利，退出战争并放弃领土要求，其占领区为摩洛哥军队所占据，西撒战争也演变为摩洛哥和西撒人阵之间的长期武装冲突。1991 年摩洛哥与西撒人阵正式签署停火协议，并同意次年在联合国的组织下进行独立公投，至此长达 16 年的武装冲突方才告一段落。
但是双方虽然同意停火，西撒的局势却依旧没有稳定。摩洛哥与西撒人阵在“自决”的定义上一直有很大分歧。西撒人阵坚持西撒的最终地位通过全民投票的“自决”方式来决定，其中包括将独立举行全民投票作为一种选择; 而摩洛哥则认为西撒的“摩洛哥性”不可改变，坚持西撒“在摩洛哥主权范围内实行高度自治”，在自治的基础上进行“自决”。这样的分歧使得公投计划于 1998 年后陷入停滞，后来虽有联合国维和部队进驻，但双方依旧冲突不断。就在今年11月，双方又爆发激烈摩擦。在目前的西撒，西撒人阵统治着该地区以东大约四分之一的荒芜地区，其余大部分均为摩洛哥所占领。
众所周知，随着自己的政治生命已进入倒计时，特朗普正急于留下足够分量的政治遗产，这其中阿以关系则是重点。为了能在下台前促进以色列和摩洛哥关系正常化，特朗普不顾西撒地区的复杂性承认了摩洛哥对西撒的主权，而这将可能导致该地区的形势进一步复杂化。
域外大国的干预本就是西撒问题久拖不决的重要原因之一。虽然自1975年以来，联合国大会多次通过关于西撒哈拉问题的决议，重申西撒哈拉人民有不可剥夺的自决和独立的权利，但是以法国、美国为主的西方大国则出于地缘政治利益的考虑，利用其在联合国安理会的权力阻止了冲突的解决。为了回报摩洛哥长期为西方国家在非洲地区打击民族主义、共产主义代理人以及“反恐”，一些西方国家往往在西撒问题上倾向于摩洛哥，导致联合国的权威性大大降低。而摩洛哥在这些国家的支持下，不顾安理会第 380 号决议中要求摩洛哥从西撒撤退的规定，持续加强对西撒的控制，并不断扩大其“自治”计划。此次摩洛哥外交大臣布里达在12月10日表示，美国承认摩洛哥对西撒哈拉的主权是“重要的一步”。他表示，这是国王穆罕默德六世与美国总统特朗普直接沟通的结果，确认了摩洛哥对其领土的主权；并且美国已经决定在西撒哈拉城市达赫拉设立领事馆，这将进一步强化美国对摩洛哥西撒哈拉领土主权的确认。
另外自1975 年以来，冲突导致成千上万的西撒人民逃离争议领土，这些难民在极端恶劣的条件下生存，引发了严重的人道主义危机。而西撒特殊的地理位置和乱局，更为地区恐怖主义的滋长和国际恐怖主义的渗透提供了温床。有迹象表明，极端恐怖主义已经渗透到西撒人阵的营地。同时西撒因战争留存下来的大量地雷和其他爆炸物，不仅危及当地居民的生命，还成为该地区恐怖分子获取武器的来源和途径之一。可以看出，未来一旦战火重燃，以上种种问题会让该地区局势更加雪上加霜。对此，在以色列和摩洛哥达成协议后，联合国秘书长古特雷斯紧急表态称：联合国对西撒哈拉的立场没有变；解决西撒问题必须基于安理会的决议；双方要避免局势激化的举动。
综上，由于特朗普的“急功近利”，未来西撒局势可能再次恶化，对了各方应予以关注。
（以下为英文原文）
Western Sahara becomes intl hotspot as Israel, Morocco normalize ties
***Editor’s note:*Lan Shunzheng is a research fellow at Charhar Institute and a member of the Chinese Institute of Command and Control. The article reflects the author’s opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
Israel and Morocco have reached an agreement to normalize relations between the two countries. It is the fourth Arab country to normalize relations with Israel in the past four months, after the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan. As part of the deal, the Trump administration agreed to recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara. What is clear is that the American approach will make the question of Western Sahara an international hotspot once again.
The Western Sahara has long been a disputed territory in northwest Africa. In 1884 Spain established a colonial rule of the region. Morocco and Mauritania, neighbors of the Western Sahara at the time, both had territorial claims, citing “historical grounds.”
In May 1973, the Polisario Front, an independent organization mainly composed of Sahrawi people, was established. It advocated the realization of national liberation by expulsion of Spanish colonialists through armed struggle. Spain announced its withdrawal from Western Sahara in 1976, ending its colonial rule.
Morocco and Mauritania then signed an agreement on the partition of Western Sahara. The two armies then moved into Western Sahara for a “subdivision occupation.”
Subsequently, with the support of Algeria, Polisario Front declared the establishment of the “Saharan Arab Democratic Republic,” and the Western Sahara war broke out.
In 1978, Mauritania withdrew from the war and gave up its territorial claims because of the hostilities. The territory was occupied by the Moroccan army, and the Western Sahara war turned into a protracted armed conflict between Morocco and Polisario Front. The 16-year conflict ended in 1991 when the two sides signed a ceasefire agreement. A UN mission was tasked with monitoring the ceasefire and organizing a referendum on self-determination in Western Sahara.
However, the situation in Western Sahara remained unstable, because divisions between the two parties have stalled plans for a referendum. Conflict has continued despite the presence of UN peacekeepers.
As he counts down the days to his political life, Trump is in a hurry to leave a substantial legacy, with Arab-Israeli relations at the center of it all. In an effort to normalize relations between Israel and Morocco before stepping down, Trump has acknowledged Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara despite the complexities, which could further complicate the situation in the region.
The intervention of non-regional powers is one of the important reasons why the question of Western Sahara has dragged on. Although since 1975, the UN General Assembly has reiterated that the Western Sahara people have the inalienable right to self-determination and independence, some Western countries tend to favor Morocco over the issue of Western Sahara for reasons of geopolitical interests, which greatly reduces the authority of the UN. Morocco, with the support of these countries, has continued to strengthen its control over the region and to expand its plan of “autonomy” in spite of the provisions of Security Council Resolution 380, which calls for its withdrawal from Western Sahara.
It is not hard to imagine that, with America’s explicit backing, Morocco will be even more secure in the future over Western Sahara. If Morocco takes any further action, Polisario Front is bound to react strongly.
At the same time, Polisario Front is not alone. Dozens of countries including Libya, Mauritania, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Mozambique have recognized “Saharan Arab Democratic Republic” as an independent state; Algeria has also been a major force in pushing for a settlement of the Western Sahara issue under the UN framework and has been one of the “strategic equalizers” against the “long-standing support for Morocco” consensus between France and the U.S. on the Sahara issue. The possibility of a war between Morocco and Polisario Front or even Algeria would therefore be greatly increased.
In addition, since 1975, the conflict had led to the flight of thousands of people from the disputed territories who were living in extremely harsh conditions and had created a serious humanitarian crisis. The special geographical position and chaos of Western Sahara have provided a hotbed for the growth of regional terrorism and the infiltration of international terrorism.
At the same time, the large number of mines and other explosives left over from the war in the region not only endangered the lives of the local population, but also became a source and means for terrorists to obtain weapons in the region. All this could make the situation in the region even worse in the future, should fighting resume.
In this regard, after Israel and Morocco reached an agreement, the UN Secretary General Guterres said urgently that the UN position on Western Sahara has not changed; the settlement of the question of Western Sahara must be based on a Security Council resolution, and both sides should avoid any escalation of the situation.
To sum up, due to Trump’s eagerness for quick success and quick benefits, the situation over Western Sahara may deteriorate again in the future, and all parties should pay attention to it.