面对新一届美国政府，欧洲各国对于防务独立问题再现分歧_风闻
钢铁沧澜-2020-11-25 11:28
作者:兰顺正首发自：CGTN
有关欧洲防务一体化问题的探讨由来已久。二战后，在英国的倡议下，西欧国家就建立了共同防御西欧的西欧联盟以抱团取暖。虽然该联盟刚诞生不久，其共同防御功能便被北约替代，但是欧洲国家此后并未放弃努力。如在2004年欧洲防御局成立，以支持欧盟成员国提升军事实力，满足欧洲安全与防务政策的需要。
众所周知，特朗普在入主白宫以后，由于其本人对于“美国优先”的固执，导致美国与欧洲盟友的关系出现大幅度的倒退。特朗普多次公开表示，欧盟一直以来就非常依赖美国，可以说整个欧盟安全都是由美国来保护的，但是欧洲所付出的军费只有非常小的一部分。除此之外，欧盟还在贸易问题上占了美国的便宜。就在今年5月，据福克斯新闻报道，特朗普在采访中声称欧洲应向美国补偿5000亿美元的损失，如果欧洲不给予补偿，那么就会撤走美国驻扎在欧洲的20万大军。此番言论一出，道琼斯工业指数在30分钟内急跌450点。特朗普的狮子大开口以及退群成风，让欧洲盟国普遍感到寒心。因此这些年来欧洲国家的防务独立意识得到进一步的加强。在2018年6月，欧盟9国防长在卢森堡签署“欧洲干预倡议”意向书，承诺组建一个欧洲联合军事干预部队，在针对可能威胁欧洲安全的危机，能够立即采取军事部署。这其中，法国的表现最为积极，总统马克龙多次呼吁欧洲防务独立并打造“欧洲军队”。
但是如果未来拜登上台，对于欧洲防务独立将又会产生新的影响。目前看来，在对欧政策上拜登将会与特朗普形成鲜明对比。拜登猛烈抨击特朗普疏远美国盟友的一系列举措，他认为美国仍然是且应当是“自由世界”的领导者，“退群”行为会削弱美国在其传统同盟体系和国际组织内的影响和地位。他将会采取多边主义的方针，修补并强化美国在全球民主同盟中的领导地位，甚至希望重构这个联盟的关键要素，使之在面对所谓的“非民主国家”威胁时，更能促进美国的利益和价值观。拜登表示，下一任总统必须“挽回我们的声誉，重建对我们领导层的信心，并动员我们的国家和盟友迅速应对新的挑战”。拜登承诺，他将“立即采取措施，恢复美国的民主和联盟，保护美国的未来经济”。
作为欧洲两个大国之一，德国本是欧洲防务独立的重要支柱，但是目前看来随着拜登距离白宫越来越近，德国又出现了向美国靠拢的趋势。据称在11月2日，德国国防部长卡伦鲍尔在接受美国“政治新闻网”采访时表示，欧洲在不久的将来将不得不继续依赖美国的军事保护。有分析认为，德国的突然转向与驻德美军撤离问题有关。因为德国不是一个核武器国家，常规武器装备也严重老化，所以德国尽管对于防务独立很热心，但在传统安全领域依旧严重依赖美国的保护。在6月15日，特朗普曾表示将把驻德国美军人数减至2.5万人，德国目前驻有美军约3.45万人，美国如果当真撤军至2.5万人，将使驻德美军规模缩减近三分之一，对于德国的国家安全会产生很多不利影响。而根据最近的报道，美方一位高级外交政策助理称，拜登计划在上任后对从德国撤军的事情进行重新评估，这无疑会让德国内部的亲美势力抬头。此次马克龙的发言，主要针对的就是卡伦鲍尔的言论。马克龙表示，“我完全不同意德国国防部长在‘政治新闻网’上发表的观点”。马克龙说，“只有我们认真看待自己并对国防拥有主权时，美国才会尊重我们作为盟国”。显然，马克龙是在努力将德国拉回自己的阵营。
综上，在面对新一届美国政府时，欧洲各国对于欧洲防务独立问题将再次出现分歧。
（以下为英文原文）
Facing Biden, Europeans may be divided over defense independence again
Lan Shunzheng
Although the incumbent U.S. President Donald Trump has so far refused to concede the defeat of the 2020 presidential election, there has been a growing convergence of views on Joe Biden’s victory. It is conceivable that a new administration under Biden would lead to changes in U.S. foreign policy.
French President Emmanuel Macron said on November 15 that Europe still needs its own independent and sovereign defense strategy, even as relations with the new U.S. administration improve. It is not hard to see that European countries will have another round of debate about the future of European defense independence.
The question of European defense integration has been discussed for a long time. After World War II, at the initiative of Britain, Western European countries formed the Western European Union (WEU) to defend Western Europe together.
Although the alliance’s mutual-defense function was replaced by NATO shortly after its birth, the Europeans have not given up since. For example, the European Defense Agency was established in 2004 to support EU member states to upgrade their military capabilities and meet the needs of the European security and defense policy.
After Trump entered the White House, his “America first” approach has led to a significant regression in the relationship between the U.S. and its European allies. Trump has stated publicly many times that the EU has always been very dependent on the United States.
It can be said that the security of the entire EU is protected by the U.S., but the military expenditure of Europe is only a very small part. On top, the EU is taking advantage of the U.S. on trade issues.
As recently as May, according to Fox News, Trump claimed in an interview that Europe should compensate the U.S. $500 billion in losses and would withdraw 200,000 U.S. troops from Europe if Europe did not pay. This sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 450 points in 30 minutes.
Trump’s big opening and retreat have sent a chill through the European allies. So in recent years, the defense independence consciousness of European countries has been further strengthened.
In June 2018, nine EU defense ministers signed a letter of intent on the European Intervention Initiative in Luxembourg, pledging to form a joint European military intervention force capable of immediate military deployment in response to crises that may threaten European security. France has been the most active, with President Macron repeatedly calling for an independent European defense and a “European army.”
But a future Biden presidency would have new implications for European defense independence. For now, Biden will stand in stark contrast to Trump in his approach to Europe.
Biden lashed out at a series of moves by Trump to distance himself from U.S. allies, arguing that the U.S. remains and should be the leader of the “free world,” and that “withdrawal” would undermine the influence and position of the U.S. within its traditional alliance system and international organizations.
He may take a multilateralist approach, repair and strengthen America’s leadership in the global alliance, and even hope to reshape key elements to better promote American interests and values in the face of threats from so-called “non-democracies.”
What is clear is that Biden will be wooing European allies, and that this will encourage some European countries that once advocated independence to rely on America for their security.
Take Germany as an example. In recent years, due to the tariff war on steel, aluminum and automobiles between Europe and the U.S., sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Iran’s nuclear agreement and other issues, Germany has complained about the United States.
Therefore, Germany has been relatively supportive of European defense independence. Macron called for the creation of a “European army” at the centenary of the end of World War I on November 6, 2018. Echoing Macron’s proposal, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made it clear that Europe needs a true European army as a gesture of EU solidarity.
As one of Europe’s two great powers, Germany was once a pillar of European defense independence, but now appears to be moving closer to the U.S. as Biden draws closer to the White House.
On November 2, German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer reportedly told Politico that Europe will have to continue to rely on U.S. military protection in the near future. Some analysts believe that Germany’s sudden turn has something to do with the withdrawal of American troops in Germany.
As Germany is not a nuclear-weapon state and its conventional weapons equipment is also seriously aging, despite its enthusiasm for defense independence, Germany still relies heavily on the protection of the U.S. in the traditional security field.
On June 15, Trump said that he would reduce the number of U.S. troops in Germany to 25,000. Currently, there are about 34,500 U.S. troops in Germany. If the U.S. really withdraws to 25,000, it will reduce the size of the U.S. troops in Germany by nearly one third, which will have adverse impact on Germany’s national security.
Antony Blinken, a senior U.S. foreign policy aide to Biden, said that Biden plans to re-evaluate the withdrawal of troops from Germany after taking office, which will undoubtedly lead to the rise of pro-American forces in Germany.
Aiming at the comments of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Macron said, “I totally disagree with what the German defense minister said on Politico. The United States will respect us as an ally only if we take ourselves seriously and have sovereignty over our defense.” Macron is clearly trying to pull Germany back into his fold.
In conclusion, in the face of the new U.S. administration, European countries seemed to be once again divided on the issue of European defense independence.