日本要如何解决人口下降的问题?_风闻

【来源龙腾网】

评论原创翻译：

Phillip Hartman

D0 Nothing

The assumption here is that it is a problem, but why is it a problem and for whom? The common argument is that there will be less people working to support an aging population. So either the old will get less resources or the workers will. A trade-off is being made here. Less tax money for consumption in exchange for more living space and more time for work. 

There’s also the third option: redistribute more resources from the wealthy to the old. Japan is a very wealthy country. There is no lack of wealth.

什么也不用做。

这个问题的假设前提是，人口下降是一个问题，但为什么它是一个问题，对谁来说是一个问题?普遍的观点是，人口下降将使得有更少的人工作来支持老龄化的人口。所以要么老年人得到的资源会减少，要么工人会。这里要进行权衡。减少消费方面的税收，以换取更多的生活空间和更多的工作时间。

还有第三种选择:将更多的资源从富人手中重新分配给老年人。日本是一个非常富有的国家。财富并不缺乏。 0

That was the non-answer answer, but here’s the more straight-forward answer. The birth rate is being suppressed because the economics currently in Japan make it too costly to have children. However, as the population declines the cost of children will also decline until it reaches a point where the birth rate begins to stabilize. The principal cause of low birth rate is tight living quarters. If you live in a two bedroom apartment and can only afford a two bedroom apartment, where are you going to put more children? That’s why birth rate is around 1.1 in Tokyo and 1.4 for the country as a whole.

Less people means more space. More space means bigger homes. Bigger homes means bigger families. Eventually Japan will find a balance between population and space. It’s population will NOT disappear. It’s pure stupid to think a declining population won’t influence the birth rate in the future.

Some commonly mentioned solutions that are total BS.

这是一个没有答案的答案，但这里有一个更直接的答案。出生率之所以受到抑制，是因为日本目前的经济状况使得生育孩子的成本过高。然而，随着人口的减少，养育孩子的费用也会下降，直到出生率开始稳定为止。低出生率的主要原因是狭小的居住空间。如果你住在两个卧室的公寓，但只能负担得起一个两个卧室的公寓，你打算在哪里安置更多的孩子?这就是为什么东京的出生率是1.1左右，而整个日本的出生率是1.4左右。

更少的人意味着更多的空间。更大的空间意味着更大的房子。大房子意味着大家庭。最终，日本将在人口和空间之间找到平衡。日本的人口不会消失。认为人口减少不会影响未来的出生率的观点是非常愚蠢的。

一些通常提到的解决方案都是扯淡。 0

Various pro-women policies. (Doesn’t work. Canada has the most pro-women government in the world yet still has an super-low birth rate. We actually had very high birth rates when women were supposedly oppressed so it head-scratching that people think the opposite would work)

Immigration. (The low birth rate is being driven by Japan’s high population density. Bringing in more people will slow the decent, but the incentive to shrink won’t go away, so in a few decades you’ll have a country that still has a low birth rate but now isn’t so Japanese anymore).

Childcare. (It’s seems hard for policy makers to understand that people don’t want to give birth to a child just to have somebody else raise it).

各种支持女性的政策。(不工作。加拿大拥有世界上最支持女性的政府，但出生率仍然很低。当人们认为妇女受到压迫的时候，我们的出生率非常高，所以人们认为相反的方法才会起作用，真是令人挠头)

移民。(日本的低出生率是由人口密度高造成的。引进更多的人口会减缓体面人口的增长，但人口萎缩的动力不会消失，所以在几十年里，你会看到一个出生率仍然很低的国家，但日本将变得不那么像日本了)。

照顾孩子。(政策制定者似乎很难理解人们并不想为了让别人抚养自己的孩子而生孩子)。 0

Shingo Obata, lives in Georgia. United States (2016-present)

If solving declining population problem means maintaining the population at 120 million over several decades, only one solution is to accept nearly 1 million immigrants per year. I do not think that 1M/year is realistic target. first, Japan is not a good country for immigrants. To liven in Japan, mastering Japanese language is must. Japanese society does not have experience of accepting mass immigrants. Many people still believe that Japan is racially homogeneous country that the concept of cultural diversity is not as widespread as major destination for immigrants such as U.S. and Australia. Although Japan has started the great effort to transform the society so that they can assimilate the people overseas, we cannot win the competition among immigrants seekers so far. We cannot attract enough number of immigrants, unfortunately.

如果解决人口下降的问题意味着要在几十年时间里将人口保持在1.2亿，那么唯一的解决办法就是每年接纳近100万移民。我不认为每年引进100万移民是个可现实的目标。首先，日本不是一个适合移民的国家。要在日本生活，掌握日语是必须的。日本社会没有接纳大量移民的经历。许多人仍然认为日本是一个种族同质的国家，文化多样性的概念不像在美国和澳大利亚等移民的主要目的地那么普遍。虽然日本已经开始努力改造社会以同化海外人口，但到目前为止，我们还不能在吸引移民的竞争中获胜。不幸的是，我们无法吸引足够数量的移民。 0

Improvement of birth rate is like a drop in the ocean as size of cohort in the birth age is too small. Even if the rate increase up to 2, general trend of the population loss won’t be changed. It’s too late.

But try to maintain the population at current level is nonsense considering the cost of accepting massive immigrants. Thus we need to accept the declining population over the decades and I hope it’s gonna be a sweet decline, not a hard crush.

As other people wrote, decline of the population itself is merely a problem as Japan is heavily overpopulated and suffering from the congestion here and there in our tiny islands. 100 years ago we had less than 60 million people. Now, it’s 120 million in the 378k km2 land area, which is 90% of State of California. Also, about 2/3 of land area is occupied by unlivable mountain region. Definitely too much.

提高的那点出生率只是沧海一粟，因为生育适龄年纪的国民规模太小。即使增长率上升到2，种群减少的总趋势也不会改变。已经太迟了。

但考虑到接受大量移民的成本，试图将人口维持在目前的水平就是无稽之谈。因此，我们需要接受未来几十年人口的下降，我希望这是一个温和的下降，而不是严重的崩溃。

正如其他人所写的那样，人口的减少本身只是一个问题，因为日本人口严重过剩，我们生存的小岛上到处都受到人口拥挤的困扰。100年前，我们的人口不到6000万。现在，在37万8千平方公里（相当于加利福尼亚州面积的90%）的土地上有1亿2千万人生活。此外，日本约2/3的土地面积是不适合居住的山区。人口确实太多了。 0

The real pain in the ass is the least desirable distribution of age groups. With small number of working generation (age 15–64) and large number of the rest of the generation (age under 15 and over 65), 1 person belongs to non working generation is supported by 1.4 person belong to working generation in 2045. Even now the figure is 2.0. To maintain the current national health insurance system and national pension system, payment for pension and health insurance is going to skyrocket. One research shows that national health insurance premium is estimated to increase by 57% between 2009 and 2025 in Fukui Prefecture (https://www.jbaudit.go.jp/koryu/study/mag/pdf/j46d03.pdf). Probably payment for pension will face the similar increase rate. So young people in Japan does not believe the sustainability of the current social welfare system. 

真正令人头疼的是最不理想的人口年龄分布。工作代(15 - 64岁)人数较少，其余代(15岁以下和65岁以上)人数较多，到2045年，平均每1.4个工作代的人需要供养1个非工作代的国民。即使是现在，这个数字也是2.0：1。为了维持现行的国家健康保险制度和国家养老保险制度，养老金和医疗保险的支出将大幅增加。一项研究显示，2009年至2025年，福井县的国民健康保险费预计将增长57%。可能养老金的支付也将面临类似的增长率。因此，日本的年轻人不相信当前社会福利体系的可持续性。