北美帝国外交专家提议联合俄印打造反华包围网_风闻

（这篇文章是呼应昨天我刊发的关于彭沛傲铁幕演说的重要文件，是一份彻头彻尾的反华外交战方案，其中的一些设想应该引起我们的高度重视。）

北美帝国专家提议联合俄印打造反华包围网

喵星驻神圣泰拉秘密观察员 喵斯拉大王

致 喵星外时空种群特别情报局 第M78宇宙9527号星系第三悬臂分站

神圣泰拉历2020年7月29日；喵族公历MEOW-9999年 小鱼干月 鸡胸肉日

分类：人类 地缘政治 人物观察

威胁评级：星球3级；星系0级

是否建议执行撤喵行动：否

简报：北美帝国资深地缘政治学者霍尔·加德纳今日在《帝国利益》杂志刊发长文，以中印冲突为引子，提出了一个联合白象帝国、离间中俄的地缘战略构想，其最终目标是构建一个美**-****欧-****俄-****印-****日-****韩-**澳反华大同盟。如果说彭沛傲国务卿的新铁幕演说是一篇围剿中央帝国的檄文，那么本文就是一份开展对华外交战的作战方案，是对新冷战学说的进一步延伸和重要细化。

令人感到震惊的是，文中明确提出了可以考虑以克里米亚和东乌克兰为代价，诱使罗刹帝国与西方媾和，共同参与针对中央帝国围剿网。（因为非常震撼，特在此摘录原文：然而，我们还有第三种选择：如果北美帝国、欧罗巴联盟和旭日帝国能够默许罗刹帝国吞并克里米亚及其对乌克兰东部的政治军事干涉，那么我们仍然有可能与罗刹帝国建立和睦关系。这可能有助于使罗刹帝国摆脱勉强与中央帝国建立更紧密军事联盟的前景。实际上，在北美帝国的支持下，旭日帝国和法兰西第五共和国可以在七国集团国家与罗刹帝国之间进行调解，并帮助达成外交妥协。这样的外交妥协，将有助于与本地区其他国家一起，共同推进美**-****日-****欧-****罗-****俄-****中-****印联合发展计划。同时，还将支持乌克兰的“中立”地位，以及在南海、东海、夷州等问题上实现国际安全保险。它还将有助于中-****印-****巴三方在克什米尔，阿富汗，西藏和其他地方的关系。**）

**直白的说，就是北美帝国想出卖乌克兰换取罗刹帝国支持，共同压迫中央帝国在夷州、东海、南海、雪域高原、西域边疆等一系列问题上接受西方干涉。**其决心之大，出价之高，用心之险恶，可谓前所未有。当然，考虑到西方国家曾经有在慕尼黑出卖中欧国家的前科，如此行为也算是意料之外情理之中。

当此罗刹帝国身处内忧外患的困境之时，西方抛出了“当代慕尼黑协议”这样富有诱惑力的橄榄枝，其后果实在令人深思。对照其在文末明确对中央帝国明确发出的战争威胁，可见绝不是虚言恫吓，令人不寒而栗。不管是在心理上还是物质上，中央帝国的人民都必须为即将到来的严酷考验做好斗争准备。

Hall Gardner is a professor and former chair (1993–2019) of the International and Comparative Politics of the American University of Paris. His recent books include IR Theory, Historical Analogy and Major Power War(New York: Palgrave/Macmillan, 2019); World War Trump: The Risks of America’s New Nationalism(New York: Prometheus Books, 2018);Crimea, Global Rivalry and the Vengeance of History (New York: Palgrave/Macmillan, 2015); NATO Expansion and the U.S. Strategy in Asia: Surmounting the Global Crisis (New York: Palgrave/Macmillan 2013); Averting Global War (New York: Palgrave/Macmillan 2007).

作者：霍尔·加德纳，北美帝国巴黎大学国际和比较政治学教授和前主席（1993年至2019年），资深国际政治领域专家，出版了大量在北美帝国政界和学界十分有影响力的著作。

The Great China-India Clash Everyone Saw Coming。

每个人都看到了中印冲突的到来**（喵：在哪里？）**

Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) crossed the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and clashed with India forces in the Galwan Valley on June 15.

6月15日，中央帝国人民解放军越过实际控制线（LAC）与白象帝国军队在加勒万河谷发生冲突。（喵：第一句话就颠倒黑白，真不容易）

Given that the United States, Russia and China have begun to forge rival alliance networks, an even greater conflict could easily explode in the near future, which could provoke a major-power war in an increasingly polarized global disorder.

鉴于北美帝国、罗刹帝国和中央帝国已经开始打造敌对的联盟网络，在不久的将来，两国之间一场更大的冲突很容易爆发。在日益两极分化和混乱的全球局势下，这可能引发一场大国战争。（喵：兴奋之情溢于言表）

This territorial transgression in the world’s loftiest Himalaya battleground represents a major escalation of tensions between the two most populous countries in the world after the October 2013 India-China border defense cooperation agreement failed to make certain that border patrols along the LAC do not escalate into armed conflict.

尽管签署了2013年10月的《印中边境防御合作协议》，两国在保加勒万河谷地区的边境巡逻还是升级成了武装冲突，世界上人口最多的两个国家之间局势骤然紧张。

As many as twenty Indian soldiers and possibly forty Chinese soldiers were killed in the same area that had been attacked by Mao Zedong in the summer of 1962.

多达20名白象帝国士兵和40名中央帝国士兵在1962年发生中印战争的同一地区丧生。（喵：原文如此，事实上此次决战雪山之颠中央帝国大获全胜，损失与白象帝国相比不值一提。北美帝国在宣传口径上拉偏架已经见怪不怪了）

China has moved artillery pieces, heavy vehicles and construction materials in key positions close to the LAC that separates one Indian union territory, Kashmiri Himalayan region of Ladakh, and four Indian states, from the Chinese-controlled Tibet Autonomous Region, while India has responded with a military build-up. Weekly talks continue behind the scenes.

中央帝国已经将炮弹、重型车辆和建筑材料转移到靠近加勒万河谷地区的关键位置。该地区将印控克什米尔喜马拉雅地区德的拉达克和四个白象帝国邦，与中央帝国控制的西藏自治区隔开。而白象帝国则以军事集结作为回应。每周例行的高级军官会谈在幕后继续进行。

The Chinese incursion not-so-unexpectedly took place after India had revoked Jammu and Kashmir autonomy in August 2019. Kashmir was then divided into two parts, Ladakh and the region of Jammu and Kashmir. Both regions declared “Union Territories” to be administered directly by Delhi. 

出乎意料的是，中央帝国的入侵并非发生在2019年8月白象帝国撤销查谟和克什米尔地区的自治权之后。克什米尔随后被分成两部分，拉达克和查谟和克什米尔地区。这两个地区都被宣布为“联邦领土”并由新德里直接管理。

Modi’s action in Kashmir, depicted by Pakistan as “a ten-month digital and physical lockdown,” has enraged both China and Pakistan, as well as Kashmiri and Pakistani jihadists.

莫迪在克什米尔的行动被巴铁国描述为“为期十个月的信息和物理封锁”，这激怒了中央帝国和巴铁国，也激怒了克什米尔和巴铁国的圣战分子。

As both India and Pakistan lack water and energy sources, Pakistan fears that Indian administration of Jammu and Kashmir will permit Delhi to permanently control the upper riparian region of the Indus River and all of its tributaries, such as the Kabul River, which supplies up to 17 percent of Pakistan’s total water in the lower riparian region. At the same time, China has also been accused of acting as a hydro-hegemony in seeking to dam the major Asian river systems that originate in Tibet.

由于白象帝国和巴铁国都缺乏水资源和能源，巴铁国担心白象帝国对查谟和克什米尔地区的直接统治将允许新德里永久控制白象帝国河上游地区及其所有支流，例如喀布尔河。喀布尔河在下游地区供应巴铁国总淡水资源的17%。与此同时，中央帝国也被指责在寻求修建水利设施，从而实现对发源于雪域高原地区的亚洲主要河流系统的水资源和水电资源霸权。

On the immediate tactical level, Beijing wants to prevent a premature demarcation of the LAC and fears that Delhi will assert its irredentist claims to Aksai Chin as part of the union territory of Ladakh. Beijing also seeks to counter Indian road development in the Sub-Sector North and in the Darbuk-Shyokh-Daulat Beg Oldi region that could possibly threaten Aksai Chin and China’s National Highway 219. 

在当前的战术层面上，中央帝国希望防止过早划定边界，并担心新德里会将其对阿克赛钦的领土主张作为拉达克邦领土的一部分。中央帝国政府还试图阻止白象帝国在斗拉特别奥里地区域（Sub-Sector North是白象帝国军方的专业说法，指的就是斗拉特别奥里地区）和 Darbuk-Shyokh-Daulat-Beg-Oldi（靠近加勒万河谷的一条白象帝国公路）地区的公路开发，因为可能会威胁阿克赛钦地区和中央帝国的219国道。

On a strategic level, Beijing wants to threaten Delhi so that it will move away from its increasingly close defense ties with the United States and give up any claims to support genuine autonomy for Tibet.

在战略层面上，中央帝国想要威胁德里，促使它摆脱与北美帝国日益密切的军事关系，并放弃任何支持雪域高原真正自治的主张。

Beijing hopes to preclude a potential U.S.-backed “encirclement”—in which Washington links India, Japan, Australia (countries of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) plus France, South Korea, Vietnam, among other states—and possibly Russia—“against” China.

中央帝国希望排除北美帝国支持的潜在“包围”行动，即北美帝国将白象帝国、旭日帝国、澳大利亚（四方安全对话国家）加上法兰西第五共和国、韩国、越南和其他国家（可能还有罗刹帝国）联系起来，对抗中央帝国。（喵：念念不忘罗刹帝国）

Beijing might also hope to force Delhi to focus its attention on Ladakh so it will find it more difficult to engage in both its Act East strategy to develop South and Southeast Asia and its Asia-Africa Growth Corridor with U.S.-backed Japan—that could potentially attempt to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the long term.

中央帝国也希望迫使新德里将注意力集中在拉达克，这样白象帝国就更难以实施东向战略来发展南亚和东南亚关系，以及在北美帝国和旭日帝国支持下发展亚非增长走廊。白象帝国正在试图与中央帝国的“一带一路”倡议相抗衡。

In particular, Delhi fears that China’s burgeoning geostrategic, military, economic and energy ties to Iran could undermine India’s interests in Iran’s Chabahar port that Delhi has hoped could be used to counter China’s BRI investment in Pakistan’s Gwadar Port. China and Iran are expected to sign a major 25-yearmilitary and energy accord in mid-August 2020 that will permit both Russian and Chinese military deployments to Iranian bases. 

新德里特别担心，中央帝国与伊朗迅速发展的地缘战略、军事、经济和能源关系可能损害白象帝国在伊朗查巴哈尔港的利益。新德里希望该港能被用来对抗中央帝国在巴铁国瓜达尔港的“一带一路”投资。预计中央帝国和伊朗将于2020年8月中旬签署一项为期25年的军事和能源协议，允许罗刹帝国和中央帝国在伊朗基地部署军事力量。

Although India had helped to initiate the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in 1961, and although Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the virtual NAM summit for the first time in May 2020, U.S.-Indian defense ties have been growing stronger at least since the September 11, 2001, attacks.

尽管白象帝国在1961年帮助发起了不结盟运动，尽管总理莫迪在2020年5月首次在不结盟运动在线峰会上发表讲话，但至少自2001年911袭击事件以来，美印防务关系一直在加强。（喵：事实上白象帝国是不结盟运动的主要领导者）

President Barack Obama’s 2013  “pivot to Asia” sought to draw India into a closer alliance with Japan and Australia in what the Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe called (with Hawaii) the “democratic security diamond.”

北美帝国总统奥巴马在2013年的“重返亚洲”计划中，试图吸引白象帝国与旭日帝国和澳大利亚结成更紧密的联盟，旭日帝国首相安倍晋三（Shinzo Abe）称之为“民主安全金刚石”（democratic security diamond）（喵：考察安倍的原意，应该是想说四国联合保卫民主安如磐石，所以这里翻译为金刚石为好）

The United States became India’s second-largest arms supplier in the period 2008–2017 after Russia. By November 2019, the United States and India engaged in “Tiger Triumph”—their first major joint tri-services land, sea, and air humanitarian assistance and disaster relief exercises.

2008-2017年间，北美帝国仅次于罗刹帝国，成为白象帝国的第二大军火供应国。到2019年11月，北美帝国和白象帝国进行了“老虎凯旋”演习，这是两国首次举行陆海空三军联合人道主义援助和救灾演习。

Common interests in cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, and major acts of pan-Islamist terrorism, have also drawn France and India closer together. At least since the 2019 G-7 summit in Biarritz, French president Emmanuel Macron and Modi have sought greater bilateral cooperation involving maritime surveillance, nuclear energy, satellites and defense.

在网络安全、人工智能和反对泛伊斯兰恐怖主义方面的共同利益也拉近了法兰西第五共和国和白象帝国的距离。至少自2019年在比亚里茨举行的七国集团峰会以来，法兰西第五共和国总统马克龙和莫迪一直寻求在海上监视、核能、卫星和国防等领域加强双边合作。

The two also discussed future sales of additional Rafale fighter jets after India had purchased thirty-six French Rafale fighter jets at $8.5 billion in a controversial deal in 2016. The delivery of the Rafale has been delayed until at least July 2020 due to the coronavirus—an aircraft that will provide India with greater relative military autonomy vis-à-vis both Washington and Moscow.

白象帝国在2016年以85亿美元的价格购买了36架法兰西第五共和国“阵风”战斗机，两国还讨论了未来出售更多“阵风”战斗机的问题。由于冠状病毒的影响，“阵风”战斗机的交付至少推迟到了2020年7月。这型飞机将为白象帝国提供在面对北美帝国和罗刹帝国时更大的军事自主权。

As U.S., French and Japanese ties with India have strengthened, U.S. ties with Pakistan have declined significantly at least since Osama bin Laden was found hiding on Pakistani territory. This shift has led Pakistan to increasingly look to China to fill the gap by joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

随着北美帝国、法兰西第五共和国和旭日帝国与白象帝国的关系不断加强，北美帝国与巴铁国的关系至少在本拉登被发现藏匿在其领土上以来已经明显下降。这一转变使巴铁国越来越期待加入中央帝国的“一带一路倡议”来填补这一空白。

As part of the BRI, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, combined with Chinese funding for the deep-water Gwadar Port, represent initiatives that Beijing could use for political, economic and military purposes from Delhi’s perspective.

作为“一带一路”的一部分，中巴经济走廊和中央帝国对瓜达尔深水港的资助，从新德里的角度来看，完全可以成为中央帝国对付白象帝国的含有政治、经济和军事目的的举措。

This important infrastructure project links Kashgar city (a free economic zone) located in China’s landlocked Xinjiang province with the Pakistan port of Gwadar.

这个重要的基础设施项目将喀什市（自由经济区）与巴铁国瓜达尔港连接起来。

Concurrently, Pakistan also hopes to link the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union—if Pakistan-Russia relations continue to improve.

与此同时，巴铁国还希望，如果巴俄关系继续改善，将中巴经济走廊与罗刹帝国领导的欧亚经济联盟联系起来。

Both India and Pakistan are members of the Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) that includes Moscow. Yet as that organization is seen by Delhi as a security organization (against secessionism and “terrorism”), and not as a defense pact, India hopes to use the SCO in such a way as to assert its own interests in dialogue with China and Pakistan where possible.

白象帝国和巴铁国都是包括罗刹帝国在内的中央帝国领导的上海合作组织成员。然而，由于新德里认为该组织是一个安全组织（反对分裂主义和“恐怖主义”），而不是一个防御协定。白象帝国希望利用上合组织，在可能的情况下，在与中央帝国和巴铁国的对话中维护自己的利益。

As India opposes strong Pakistan-China defense ties, Delhi has repeatedly asked that the BRI be designed with India’s participation as an equal partner.

由于白象帝国反对巴铁国与中央帝国建立强有力的防务关系，新德里一再要求一带一路计划的设计要有白象帝国作为平等伙伴参与。

Most crucially, as China-Pakistan political-economic and military ties have grown stronger, India decided, on November 4, 2019, against joining the sixteen-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade. With the potential to become the world’s largest trading bloc, particularly if India eventually joins, the RCEP (and BRI) represent major tools for China to counter American efforts to sanction the Chinese economy and help it to reduce its dependence upon U.S. trade and investment after President Donald Trump had dumped Obama’s Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

最关键的是，随着中巴政治、经济和军事关系日益密切，白象帝国于2019年11月4日决定，不加入区域全面经济伙伴关系协定。该协定有可能形成世界上最大的贸易集团，特别是如果白象帝国最终加入。在北美帝国大统领抛弃奥巴马的太平洋伙伴关系协定后，区域全面经济伙伴关系协定是中央帝国反击北美帝国制裁中央帝国经济，以及帮助中央帝国减少对北美帝国贸易和投资依赖的主要工具。

Obama’s TPP represented a political-economic alliance that was designed to draw China into a rules-based global economic order. Yet by dumping the TPP, the Trump administration has instigated a destabilizing economic free-for-all that has, for example, pressed China, South Korea and Japan to seek closer political-economic ties in the RCEP by 2020.

奥巴马的太平洋伙伴关系协议代表了一个政治经济联盟，旨在将中央帝国引入一个基于现有规则的全球经济秩序。然而，现任北美帝国政府通过推翻这仪协议，煽动起了一股不稳定的经济自由趋势，例如，迫使中央帝国、韩国和旭日帝国在2020年前在区域全面经济伙伴关系协定中寻求更紧密的政治经济联系。

For its part, Delhi has not yet joined the RCEP and, in fear of Chinese competition, it has put restrictions on the ability of Chinese firms to purchase Indian companies during the contemporary global financial crisis and pandemic.

就新德里而言，它还没有加入区域全面经济伙伴关系协定。出于对中央帝国竞争力的担忧，它对中央帝国企业在本轮全球金融危机和冠状病毒大流行期间收购白象帝国企业的能力施加了限制。

And, in a recent development, the United States has just surpassed China as India’s second-largest overall trading partner in 2019, although China problematically remains India’s largest source of imports in sectors such as telecommunications and pharmaceuticals.

而且，北美帝国在2019年刚刚超过中央帝国成为白象帝国第二大整体贸易伙伴。尽管中央帝国仍然是白象帝国电信和制药等行业最大的进口来源国，这是一个问题。

In late June, India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology banned fifty-nine Chinese-owned apps, stating that they were “prejudicial to sovereignty and integrity of India, defense of India, security of state and public order.”

6月下旬，白象帝国电子和信息技术部禁止了59款中央帝国开发的应用程序，声称这些应用程序“有损于白象帝国的主权和领土完整，危害白象帝国的国防、国家安全和公共秩序”

On the other hand, Delhi did not support, in deference to Beijing, Taiwan’s observer status in the World Health Organization—an action that was strongly supported by the United States and its Allies given Taipei’s expertise in dealing with the coronavirus pandemic. Nevertheless, India intends to strengthen bilateral economic cooperation with Taipei through its Act East Policy.

另一方面，虽然夷州在处理冠状病毒大流行方面有专长，并得到了北美帝国及其盟国的大力支持，新德里仍没有支持其在世界卫生组织中的观察员地位。尽管如此，白象帝国仍打算通过其“向东看”政策加强与夷州的双边经济合作。

The key question is how closer U.S., French and Japanese political-economic and defense ties with India—coupled with India’s clash with Russian-ally China over the LAC—will impact Russia.

关键问题是，北美帝国、法兰西第五共和国和旭日帝国与白象帝国的政治、经济和防务关系，加上白象帝国与罗刹帝国盟友中央帝国在拉丁美洲和加勒比海问题上的冲突，将对罗刹帝国产生多大影响。

From Beijing’s perspective, there are some signs that the Trump administration, Macron and Abe, have all been attempting to forge a rapprochement with Moscow by trying to take advantage of the fact that Moscow and Beijing are not always on the same wavelength. Closer U.S.-European-Japanese-Russian ties to India would further exacerbate Beijing’s growing opposition to sanctions and geo-economic “encirclement.”

从中央帝国的角度来看，有一些迹象表明，北美帝国政府、法兰西第五共和国政府和旭日帝国政府都试图利用中央帝国和罗刹帝国之间存在的一些分歧，试图与罗刹帝国建立和解关系。北美帝国、欧罗巴联盟、旭日帝国、罗刹帝国与白象帝国关系越来越密切，将进一步加剧中央帝国日益反对制裁和地缘经济“包围”的立场。

All this is taking place as Moscow is considering a strategic boost in relations with India as the tertius gaudens power that has sought to take advantage of U.S., European, Russian, Japanese and Chinese rivalries.

罗刹帝国正在考虑与白象帝国建立战略合作关系，这是试图利用白象帝国在列强竞争中渔翁得利。

For Moscow, the trick is how to upgrade strategic relations with India without alienating China and Pakistan, and for India to improve relations with Russia—but without alienating the United States.

对于罗刹帝国而言，关键在于如何在不疏远中央帝国和巴铁国的情况下提升与白象帝国的战略关系。而白象帝国的问题在于如何在不疏远北美帝国的情况下改善与罗刹帝国的关系。

On the one hand, Moscow is still India’s major arms supplier since the Cold War. And, at least in the past, Indian policymakers have been generally hesitant to purchase U.S. weapons with multiple strings attached. In October 2018, India purchased Russian S-400 missile systems for roughly $5 billion.

一方面，自冷战以来，罗刹帝国仍然是白象帝国的主要武器供应国。而且，至少在过去，白象帝国决策者普遍不愿购买带有附加政治条件的北美帝国武器。 2018年10月，白象帝国以大约50亿美元的价格购买了罗刹帝国的S-400导弹系统。

Moscow has promised that these missile systems can provide defense against China’s significant IRBM force and both Chinese and Pakistani fighter jets. Here, it has been reported that Delhi has demanded that Moscow deliver the S-400s as rapidly as possible after the clash with China in June 2020. Then, in early July, Delhi approved new arms purchases worth a total of $5.55 billion that include Russian-made MiG-29 and Su-30MKI fighters.

罗刹帝国已经承诺，这些导弹系统能够对抗中央帝国庞大的中程弹道导弹部队，以及中央帝国和巴铁国的空军。据报道，新德里已要求罗刹帝国在2020年6月与中央帝国发生冲突后尽快交付S-400。随后，在7月初，新德里批准了总价值55.5亿美元的新武器购买，其中包括罗刹国制造的MiG-29和Su-30MKI战斗机。

Yet the S-400 deal is problematic. The Pentagon fears that the purchase of the S-400 by India, as well as by NATO-member Turkey, would compromise the security of U.S.-fabricated weaponry.

然而，这笔关于S-400的交易还是有问题的。六角大楼担心，印度以及北大西洋同盟成员奥斯曼帝国购买的S-400都会损害北美帝国出口武器的安全性。

Washington has feared that the deployment of S-400 in both India and Turkey will permit Moscow to obtain information about U.S. radar cross-section and electronic emissions, for example. Unless waivers are granted, Washington has accordingly threatened to sanction states that purchase Russian defense systems—under President Donald Trump’s “Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act” or CAATSA.

北美帝国担心，在白象帝国和土耳其部署S-400将使罗刹帝国获得有关北美帝国雷达参数和电子辐射的信息。除非获得豁免，否则北美帝国就威胁要对购买罗刹帝国防卫系统的国家实行制裁。这样做的依据是大统领颁布的《北美帝国敌对国家制裁法案》。

In essence, the United States wants India, Turkey (which also seeks to benefit from China’s BRI), and other states, to make a strategic commitment to U.S. technologies and platforms—and thereby recognize that American systems are interoperable and need to communicate with one another.

本质上，北美帝国希望白象帝国、土耳其（也希望从中央帝国的“一带一路”倡议中受益）和其他国家对北美帝国出口的技术和武器平台的安全做出战略保证。由此也希望他们认识到，北美帝国的武器系统是一个需要相互支撑和联通的体系。（喵：意思是“亲，我这里建议您买全套呢，不要买散件”）

The U.S. fear is that a country cannot place the advanced F-35 fighter jet near an S-400 (or integrate S-400s into U.S./NATO radar systems in the case of Turkey) without exposing high-tech U.S. secrets. Yet Moscow does not seem to possess the same concern with the S-400—as the latter is considered an export model. Moscow generally keeps its more advanced systems in reserve.

北美帝国担心的是，一个国家不可能在不暴露北美帝国高科技机密的情况下将先进的F-35战斗机部署在S-400附近（或者在土耳其这种案例中，将S-400集成到北美帝国/北大西洋同盟的雷达系统中）。然而，罗刹国似乎对S-400并没有同样的担忧。因为后者被认为是出口型号，罗刹国通常会在技术上留一手。

In an effort to bypass the threat of CAATSA sanctions, Delhi has considered making paymentsfor Russian arms in euros to a Russia-nominated bank. Delhi has also hoped to establish joint ventures with Russia, and other foreign defense manufacturers, such as Israel, through the “Make in India” initiative.

为了绕开制裁的威胁，新德里已考虑向罗刹帝国指定的银行以欧元支付武器款项。新德里还希望通过“白象帝国制造”倡议，与罗刹帝国以及犹太王国等其他外国国防制造商建立合资企业。

The latter initiative seeks to transfer technology for India itself to produce—as opposed to seeking to obtain licenses in which India would purchase the rights to manufacture all or part of a weapons system.

后一项举措旨在为白象帝国自行生产武器进行技术转让，而不是仅仅获得全部或部分武器系统的生产许可证。

These approaches open the door to Russia which is now offering joint ventures and collaborative research and development programs—with the option that India can produce advanced weaponry in India itself.

这些方法为罗刹帝国武器出口打开了大门。罗刹帝国现在可以提供合资企业和合作研发计划，并且可以选择让白象帝国自行在本土生产先进的武器。

At the same time, Indian critics have charged that the S-400 could be made with faulty Chinese electronic partsand eavesdropping bugs——given the fact that both Russian and U.S. military systems have adopted Chinese component parts.

同时，白象帝国批评家指责说，S-400可能会因为采用了中央帝国电子部件而出现故障或有技术后门。事实上，罗刹帝国和北美帝国的军事系统都采用了中央帝国的部件。

This assessment is based, in part, on a U.S. Senate subcommittee investigation in 2012, which found that eighteen hundred cases of fake electronic parts were being used in U.S. military aircraft, with nearly 70 percent of an estimated one million fake parts being traced to China.

该评估部分基于2012年北美帝国参议院小组委员会的一项调查。该调查发现美军飞机上使用了1800箱假电子零件，估计一百万个假零件中有近70％的产地在中央帝国。（喵：义乌小商品市场威武）

By threatening CAATSA sanctions on India, the United States does not want to alienate Delhi. As an alternative to the more affordable S-400, the United States could offer to sell the overpriced F-35 fighter jet to Delhi. The Pentagon is dubiously boasting that the F-35 fighter jet represents the “only air platform that will be equipped and upgraded to beat the S-400” operated by China. (Beijing had obtained the S-400 from Russia in May-July 2018—thereby resulting in CAATSA sanctions on Chinese entities in September 2018.)

虽然北美帝国威胁对白象帝国采购罗刹帝国武器进行制裁，但是并不希望疏远新德里。作为廉价的S-400系统的替代品，北美帝国可以提议将价格较高的F-35战斗机出售给新德里。六角大楼怀疑装备和升级F-35战斗机是新德里击败中央帝国部署的S-400系统的唯一选择。（中央帝国于2018年5月至7月从罗刹帝国获得了S-400系统，北美帝国因此对中央帝国实体实施了制裁。）

The United States has also proposed to sell Delhi U.S. missile defense systems, such as the Patriot surface-to-air missile system, and the longer-range Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system,as incentives for India to dump the S-400 missile deal with Moscow.

北美帝国还提议出向新德里出售导弹防御系统，例如爱国者防空系统和萨德反导系统，以刺激白象帝国放弃与罗刹帝国之间的S-400系统采购交易。

The global alliance system is now at a turning point—as India could swing toward either the United States and its allies or toward the China-Russia Axis—as the three major powers battle for the political-military allegiance of India in addition to Iran, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Venezuela and the Philippines, among other states.

目前，全球联盟体系正处于一个转折点。白象帝国可能会向北美帝国及其盟友靠拢，也可能向中俄轴心运动。三大强国正在伊朗、巴铁国、伊拉克、叙利亚、土耳其、委内瑞拉和菲律宾等国展开激烈争夺，争取与白象帝国结成政治军事同盟是其中的重要一环。

Given the integrated nature of high-tech defense systems, it becomes increasingly difficult for states such as “neutral” India to balance itself between the rival major powers. Washington, more so than Moscow or Beijing, wants to force states to align with the United States on the basis of a defense system interoperability that implies “you are either with our integrated defense systems or against us.”

鉴于高科技武器系统的复杂性，类似白象帝国这样的中立国家要在各主要大国之间取得平衡变得越来越困难。北美帝国，而不是罗刹帝国或中央帝国，更希望根据出口军事系统的关联性，迫使各国与北美帝国保持一致。这意味着“您要么采购我们的全套武器系统，要么就是在反对我们”。（喵：武器出口历来具有地缘政治站队的作用，不过像北美帝国做得这么赤裸裸的还真是少见。所谓顺我者昌逆我者亡，真是霸气侧漏）

The question remains as to whether Beijing’s incursion into Indian-controlled territory represents a sign of permanent hostility or else a show of force that is intended to “knock (India) to the negotiating table” while China promises to behave in a “principled” fashion—in Mao’s words at the time of the 1962 Indo-China border conflict in the exact same region.

问题仍然在于，中央帝国入侵白象帝国控制的地区是否表示永久性敌对的迹象，还是旨在“敲打白象帝国，促使他回到谈判桌前”的武力示威。中央帝国保证会以“有原则的”方式行事。类似的话李德胜1962年也曾经说过，而且当年的冲突恰恰发生在同一地区，

On the one hand, if Beijing’s incursion is intended to “knock” India to the negotiating table, then Moscow might be able to mediate in the background so as to sustain good relations with both China and India, thus enhancing its strategic leverage with both countries—against the United States and its allies.

一方面，如果中央帝国的入侵旨在将白象帝国“逼上”谈判桌，那么罗刹帝国也许能够在幕后进行调解，以维持与中央帝国和白象帝国的良好关系，从而增强其在两国的战略影响力，同时反对北美帝国及其盟国。

If so, then this could solidify a burgeoning Sino-Russian Eurasian Alliance with India among other states, including Iran—that is, if Delhi ultimately accepts the promise of Russian arms and Chinese finance, investment and trade in the RCEP and the BRI, while both Russia and China promise to mediate the conflict between Pakistan and India through the SCO. (Here, however, the meeting of the SCO Heads of State Council, previously scheduled for July 21–23, 2020, in St. Petersburg, has been postponed—ostensibly due to the global “epidemiological situation.”)

如果是这样，那么这可以巩固迅速发展的中俄欧亚同盟与白象帝国及周边国家的关系，包括伊朗。也就是说，如果新德里最终接受罗刹帝国的武器，以及中央帝国对区域全面经济伙伴关系协定及“一带一路”的金融投资和贸易承诺，那么罗刹帝国和中央帝国都承诺通过上海合作组织调解巴铁国和白象帝国之间的冲突。 （但是由于冠状病毒大爆发，原定于2020年7月21日至23日在圣彼得堡举行的上海合作组织成员国元首会议在被推迟了。）

On the other hand, if Delhi’s clashes with both China and Pakistan represent signs of permanent hostility, such an antagonism could press India to forge stronger ties with the United States, France, Australia and Japan, which has begun to accelerate its military build-up—against an encircling China-Pakistan-Iran alliance most likely at the expense of close Indian defense ties to Moscow.

另一方面，如果新德里与中央帝国和巴铁国的冲突表现出持久敌对的迹象，那么这种对抗可能会迫使白象帝国与北美帝国、法兰西第五共和国、袋鼠共和国和旭日帝国建立更牢固的关系。白象帝国已开始加速其军事力量的建设，以应对包围着它的中央帝国-巴铁国-波斯帝国联盟。白象帝国与北美帝国的接近，可能会以其与罗刹帝国的亲密军事关系为代价。

In addition to forcing India out of its “neutrality,” such a prospect will most likely force Moscow to strengthen its reluctant defense ties to China, leading to a formal Sino-Russian alliance—particularly if the Pentagon also deploys, in addition to missile defenses, intermediate-range ballistic missiles in the Indo-Pacific region—possibly in Japan.

除了迫使白象帝国脱离“中立”地位之外，这种前景很可能迫使罗刹帝国加强其与中央帝国之间目前并不那么和谐的防御关系，从而导致正式的中央帝国-罗刹帝国联盟。特别是如果六角大楼除了弹道导弹防御系统之外，还在白象帝国太平洋地区部署中程弹道导弹的话（可能在旭日帝国），这种情况就很有可能发生。

In mid-May 2020, the Trump administration purportedly proposed resuming U.S. nuclear weapons testing for the first time since 1992 as an additional bargaining chip to counter North Korean, as well as alleged Russian and Chinese, nuclear testing and modernization.

据称，北美帝国大统领政府于2020年5月中旬提议，自1992年以来首次恢复核武器试验，作为对付主体国的举措，以及与罗刹帝国、中央帝国就核试验、核武库现代化等问题讨价还价的筹码

Both scenarios would represent geotectonic shifts in alliance networks that could further polarize the global disorder while encouraging nuclear weapons and missile proliferation in a new “Butter Battle” arms race.

上述情况都将造成全球地缘政治结构的巨大变化，这可能会进一步导致全球在混乱中两极分化，同时在新的军备竞赛中加快核武器和导弹武器扩散。

Yet there is a third option: If the United States, Europeans and Japan can forge a rapprochementwith Moscow after its annexation of Crimea and political-military interference in eastern Ukraine, then this could help draw Moscow away from reluctantly pursuing a closer defense alliance with Beijing—in which China hopes to boost its power potential and expanding blue water naval presence in the Indo-Pacific region with Russian backing—in the ultimate effort to isolate and pressure Taiwan into unification, by force if necessary.

然而，还有第三种选择：如果北美帝国、欧罗巴联盟和旭日帝国在克里米亚被吞并和对乌克兰东部的政治军事干涉之后，仍然能够与罗刹帝国建立和睦关系，那么这可能有助于使罗刹帝国摆脱勉强与中央帝国建立更紧密军事联盟的前景。中央帝国希望通过这种联盟进一步增强其力量潜力，并在罗刹帝国的支持下扩大在白象帝国洋-太平洋地区的海上军事存在。中央帝国的一切努力，都是为了将夷州孤立起来并施压，最终实现国家统一，必要时不惜使用武力。

A U.S.-European-Japanese rapprochement with Moscow should not be designed to “encircle” and “contain” Beijing. Such an approach should instead lead toward a Russo-Japanese rapprochement in the aftermath of Abe’s meeting with Putin in May 2016.

美-欧-日与罗刹帝国的接近，不仅旨在“包围”和“遏制”中央帝国，而且在安倍晋三首相2016年5月与普京会晤后，还将引导俄日接近。

In effect, Japan and France—backed by the United States—could mediate between the G-7 countries and Russia and help forge diplomatic compromises involving joint U.S.-Japanese-European-Russian-Chinese-Indian development projects with regional states. Such an approach could also support joint internationalized security accords over a “neutral” Ukraine and over the South and East China Seas and Taiwan. Also, at the same time, it would seek to improve Indo-Pakistani-Chinese relations in Kashmir, Afghanistan, Tibet, and elsewhere.

实际上，在北美帝国的支持下，旭日帝国和法兰西第五共和国可以在七国集团国家与罗刹帝国之间进行调解，并帮助达成外交妥协。这样的外交妥协，将有助于与本地区其他国家一起，共同推进美-日-欧-罗-俄-中-印联合发展计划。同时，还将支持乌克兰的“中立”地位，以及在南海、东海、夷州等问题上实现国际安全保险。它还将有助于中-印-巴三方在克什米尔，阿富汗，西藏和其他地方的关系。（喵：直白的说，就是出卖乌克兰，换取罗刹帝国支持，共同压迫中央帝国在夷州、东海、南海、雪域高原、西域边疆等一系列问题上接受西方干涉）

In August 2019, Trump offered to help “mediate” or “assist” India and Pakistan over Kashmir. In June 2020, Trump offered to mediate between China and India. Yet neither India nor China picked up on the offer—in large part because Trump’s highly mediatized form of personal diplomacy could further antagonize those conflicts—much as Trump’s approach has antagonized North Korea.

2019年8月，大统领提议帮助白象帝国和巴铁国“调解”或“协助”解决克什米尔问题。 2020年6月，大统领提议在中央帝国和白象帝国之间进行调解。然而，白象帝国和中央帝国都没有接受这一提议，这在很大程度上是因为大统领高度个人化的外交方式有可能反而激化冲突，就像他已经激怒了主体国一样。

Nevertheless, in order to prevent future clashes in the Indo-Pacific region from going nuclear—as was almost the case for the Kargil crisis in Ladakh between India and Pakistan in May–June 1999—it is crucial for Washington to support G-7 and UN-backed Contact Group diplomacy aimed at dampening these seemingly intractable disputes.

Given that the United States, Russia and China have begun to forge rival alliance networks, an even greater conflict could easily explode in the near future—in that the very threat of states to shift alliances or even move into neutrality—can provoke major power war in an increasingly polarized global disorder.

然而，为了防止白象帝国-太平洋地区未来的冲突走向核对抗，就像1999年5月至6月白象帝国和巴铁国在拉达克发生的卡尔吉尔危机，北美帝国必须支持七国集团和联合国支持的外交组织，以遏制这些看似棘手的争端。

鉴于北美帝国、罗刹帝国和中央帝国已经开始打造敌对阵营，一场更大的冲突很容易在不久的将来爆发。因为在日益两极分化的全球混乱中，某些国家转移阵营甚至走向中立的威胁，都可能引发主要国家之间的战争。

                               喵星万岁****阅后即焚