北美帝国海军专家高度担忧无人反潜机技术将抵消其水下战力优势——致喵星情报总局_风闻

喵星驻神圣泰拉秘密观察员 喵斯拉大王

致 喵星外时空种群特别情报局 第M78宇宙9527号星系第三悬臂分站

神圣泰拉历2020年7月17日；喵族公历MEOW-9999年 小鱼干月 鸡胸肉日

分类：人类 军事 海军 武器

威胁评级：星球5级；星系0级

是否建议执行撤喵行动：否

**简报：**北美帝国海军专家在《帝国利益》杂志刊文，对中央帝国海军可能发展的海基无人反潜机技术给予了高度关注。根据最新消息，近日中央帝国海军即将服役的新型两栖攻击舰上疑似出现了海基反潜无人直升机的身影。由此可见，北美帝国海军本文并非无的放矢。鉴于北美帝国海军在核动力潜艇及反潜巡逻机等传统水下战力所占据的明显优势，以及中央帝国在无人机及人工智能领域的赶超趋势，通过大量廉价无人反潜机一举抵消北美帝国海军在西和平洋地区水下军力优势的战略，无疑是摆在中央帝国海军面前的一个诱人选项。特此报告。

American Submarines Are in the Crosshairs of China

北美帝国潜艇已经被中央帝国海军瞄准

Lyle J. Goldstein is Research Professor in the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) at the United States Naval War College in Newport, RI. In addition to Chinese, he also speaks Russian and he is also an affiliate of the new Russia Maritime Studies Institute (RMSI) at Naval War College. You can reach him at [email protected]. The opinions in his columns are entirely his own and do not reflect the official assessments of the U.S. Navy or any other agency of the U.S. government.

本文作者李勒.古德斯登是北美帝国海军战争学院中央帝国海事研究所（CMSI）的研究教授。除了中央帝国语，他还会说罗刹语。他同时还是海军战争学院新罗刹帝国海事研究所（RMSI）的研究员。他在本文中的观点完全是他自己的，并不反映北美帝国海军或北美帝国政府任何其他机构的官方评估。

China will deploy a force of aerial drones to stalk American submarines in the Western Pacific.

中央帝国将部署空中无人机追踪西和平洋的北美帝国潜艇

China has been steadily improving its anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities to cope with a perceived, major asymmetry in undersea warfare capabilities. Additionally, when Beijing began filling out its navy with major surface combatants, including aircraft carriers, cruisers and now large amphibious attack ships, there has been a rather visible and understandable uptick in Chinese attempts to protect these new investments from submarine attack.

中央帝国一直在稳步提高其反潜战（ASW）能力，以应对水下作战能力中公认的重大不对称性。另外，当中央帝国海军开始用包括航空母舰、巡洋舰和大型两栖攻击舰在内的主力战舰充实自身时，为保护这些新资产免受来自海底攻击而进行的努力有了明显的和可以理解的上升趋势。

Some of these developments in Chinese ASW over the last decade have included building a formidable force of light frigates that are equipped with towed sonar arrays,fielding a vertically launched “rocket torpedo” as a standard weapon in its fleet,deploying a new maritime patrol aircraft (MPA) that is optimized for ASW anddeveloping ocean bottom sensor networks in and around its key naval bases.

过去十年中，中央帝国在反潜战方面取得的一些最新发展包括：建造了强大的轻型护卫舰群，配备了牵引式声纳阵列，将垂直发射的“火箭鱼雷”作为其舰队的标准武器，部署了新的反潜特化型海上巡逻机（MPA），并在其主要海军基地及周围部署了海底传感器网络。

Some coming attractions in this area will include a newgeneration of Chinese ASW helicopters (both Z-18 and Z-20), as well as a system of unmanned underseavehicles (UUVs) that will perform various missions, including especially surveillance and laying sea-mines, at least at the outset.

该领域即将到来的新进展将包括新一代反潜直升机（Z-18和Z-20），以及无人海底潜行器（UUV）系统。该系统将执行各种任务，初期可能包括海上监视或水雷战。

Now, a new threat to the dominance of the U.S. submarine force in the Western Pacific lies over the horizon. A series of recent articles published in China implies that the PLA Navy is hard at work on developing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that will take up the ASW mission. That could eventually pose a major problem for the undersea forces of the United States and also for the forces of its allies.

目前，对北美帝国潜艇在西和平洋优势地位的新威胁已经迫在眉睫。最近在中央帝国发表的一系列文章表明，中央帝国海军正在努力开发承担ASW任务的无人机。这最终可能给北美帝国的水下军事力量及其盟国部队带来重大问题。

One article,published in the Chinese journal Fire Control & Command [火力与指挥控制] in mid-July, is a collaborative research project between the Naval Command College in Nanjing and the Naval Aeronautical University in Yantai.

《火力与指挥控制》杂志在7月中旬发表了一篇文章，作为中央帝国海军指挥学院与海军航空大学一项合作研究项目的成果。

The research focuses on the potential for UAVs to support an MPA in the “cooperative use of sono-buoys for the purposes of conducting a submarine search.” The article explains that sono-buoys are one of the main tools for hunting submarines, especially over a large sea area. These authors project that “Given the wide array of possibilities to employ UAVs, it’s quite possible that they will play a large role in the future of anti-submarine warfare”

该研究着眼于无人机在“为了进行潜艇搜索而联合使用声波浮标”方面支持反潜巡逻机的潜力。文章解释说，声纳浮标是猎歼潜艇的主要工具之一，特别是在广阔海域。这些作者预测说：“鉴于无人机广泛的应用可能性，它们很有可能在未来反潜战中扮演重要角色

This analysis begins by discussing various advantages and disadvantages of manned MPAs for ASW, such as the U.S. Navy’s vaunted P-8 Poseidon. Not only can that aircraft carry 120 sono-buoys, but it is capable of monitoring 60 of these buoys simultaneously, according to this Chinese rendering.

这项分析首先讨论了现有反潜巡逻机的各种优缺点，例如北美帝国海军极为倚重的P-8波塞冬巡逻机。根据中央帝国方面的描述，这种飞机不仅可以携带120个声纳浮标，还可以同时监视其中60个浮标。

Such aircraft are capable of “independent” missions against submarines, as they can conduct search, track, and attack functions.

这样的飞机有能力独立执行反潜任务，因为它们具有完备的搜索、跟踪和攻击功能。

However, there is a fly in the ointment, of course, and this analysis emphasizes that such lumbering aircraft themselves have minimal self-defense capability and thus “may very easily become targets of attack” by enemy interceptors.

但是分析同时指出，美中不足的是，由于这些笨拙的飞机自身仅具有极其薄弱的自卫能力，因此很容易成为敌方拦截机的攻击目标。

Another problem is that the length of the missions can be exceedingly taxing for the crews, so that the overall submarine search efficiency of the aircraft may decrease.另一个问题是，长时间的巡逻任务可能会给机组人员带来极大的负担，因此飞机的整体水下搜索效率可能会降低。

The argument is made in this Chinese analysis that unmanned aircraft can be of considerable assistance in such circumstances. It is said that UAVs frequently fly for more than forty hours but are capable of flights that last over days or even weeks.中央帝国分析者认为，在这种情况下，无人机可以提供很大的帮助。据说无人机经常飞行超过40个小时，甚至能够持续飞行几天到几周的时间。

While generally not fast moving, they are still considerably faster than surface ships that are also employed for the ASW mission.

虽然总体上来说飞得不快，但是无人机还是要比同样进行反潜任务的水面舰艇快得多。

It is projected, moreover, that they may sometimes be able to fly over air defenses. But the biggest selling point for UAVs in this role is that they are so much cheaper than both submarine-hunting large MPAs, and quite obviously also their quarry, the submarines.

此外，预计它们有时可能越过防空系统。但是，反潜无人机的最大卖点是，它们比有人反潜巡逻机便宜得多，而且显然也比它们的猎物便宜得多。

In other words, such economical approaches to the undersea rivalry in the Western Pacific could put Beijing on the right end of a “cost-imposition” strategy. This Chinese analysis, moreover, implies that unmanned aircraft need not accomplish all aspects of the ASW mission.

换句话说，在西和平洋水下竞争中采取这种更经济的方法，可以使中央帝国取得“性价比”战略上的优势。同时，中央帝国的分析意味着无人驾驶飞机无需完成反潜战任务的所有方面。

They could play the reasonably simple role of information relay platforms. They could also help to reduce the complexity of the daunting tasks that currently confront MPA crews. Of course, they could also take greater risks by entering “situations of contested airspace.”

它们可以扮演信息中继平台中相对简单的角色。它们还可以帮助简化反潜巡逻机飞行员面临的复杂而艰巨的任务。当然，它们也可以承担更大的风险来进入“有争议空域”。

Lower costs, naturally enough, also mean that many airframes, coordinating together, could be deployed for any given search operation. Mathematical modeling of ASW operations in this piece yields the conclusion that UAVs do significantly increase the efficiency of submarine hunting.

较低的成本同时意味着可以针对单个搜索任务部署许多相互协作的反潜无人机。在这篇文章中，通过分析反潜作战的数学模型得出结论，无人机确实能够大大提高搜索潜艇的效率。

A second article, from a late 2018edition of Chinese Journal of Ship Research , endeavors to explore the “search/attack submarine integration” functions of a fixed-wing UAV for ASW by studying the issue of optimizing payloads.

第二篇来自《中央帝国船舶研究杂志》2018年末的文章，通过研究优化有效载荷的问题，致力于探讨如何提高反潜固定翼无人机的“搜/攻一体化”功能。

This author, from the Jiangsu Automation Research Institute, asserts that “all navies are reforming ASW models.” He contends that there is an “urgent need for greater range, larger search areas, longer search periods, as well as cheaper methods of sensing, detection, tracking, and prosecuting submarines.” The paper discusses some foreign designs, including the U.S military’sMQ-9 UAV. 

这位来自自动化研究所的作者断言“所有海军都在革新反潜战模式。”他建议，“迫切需要更大范围的搜索区域、更长的搜索周期以及更廉价的监测、探测、跟踪和捕获潜艇的方法。”该论文还讨论了一些外国设计的反潜无人机，包括北美帝国军方的MQ-9无人机。

Owing mostly to the cost issue, this analysis also holds that UAVs for ASW have “obvious advantages” over manned aircraft. Interestingly, this Chinese study asserts that “weaponization is the basic trend for fixed-wing unmanned ASW aircraft”

分析认为，主要由于成本问题，用于反潜战的无人机比有人机具有“明显的优势”。有趣的是，这项研究断言“武器化是固定翼无人反潜机发展的基本趋势”

But the most remarkable part of this particular discussion is the recognition that these UAVs might well operate from Chinese aircraft carriers.

但这次特别讨论中最引人注目的部分是认识到这些无人机很可能会在中央帝国航空母舰上部署。（喵：或者两栖攻击舰及其他大型舰只）

That is a rather bold call given that China has yet to demonstrate success in operating UAVs from aircraft carriers, but it does neatly illustrate Beijing’s priority on protecting its new capital ships, as noted in this paper’s introduction.

这是一个相当大胆的呼吁，因为中央帝国还没有展示出在航空母舰上部署无人机的成功经验，但正如本文导言中所指出的，这确实清楚地说明了中央帝国在保护其新主力舰方面的优先级。（喵：越是新的领域，越有弯道超车的机会）

Reviewing sample flight profiles, this analysis sees an ASW UAV that is capable of a patrol radius of six hundred kilometers for its land-based variant and perhaps three hundred kilometers for its carrier-based variant.

回顾飞行实验数据，这项分析认为，陆基反潜无人机的巡逻半径为600公里，舰载型可能为300公里。

The above articles offer a glimpse of yet more coming attractions from the Chinese Navy. Indeed, the naval air arm of the PLA Navy is now starting to make rapid progress in line with its subsurface and surface forces.

以上文章让我们看到了中央帝国海军未来可能采取的一些反潜措施。事实上，中央帝国海军的海军航空兵正在迅速加强其水面和水下战斗力。

This news is quite disturbing as it fits a developing pattern of Beijing employing its new prowess in artificial intelligence to solve difficult battlefield dilemmas.

这则消息相当令人不安，因为它符合中央帝国利用人工智能领域新技术解决战场难题的发展路径。

What’s still more troubling is that if Chinese missiles and aircraft succeed in destroying U.S. and allied airbases in the Western Pacific during the initial phase of any military contingency, whether over Taiwan or the South China Sea, that might well leave myriad Chinese drone aircraft the freedom to roam and aggressively stalk previously nearly invulnerable American submarines. 

更令人不安的是，如果中央帝国的导弹和飞机在潜在军事冲突的初始阶段成功摧毁了北美帝国及其盟军在西和平洋的空军基地，不管是在夷州区域还是在南中央帝国海，这很可能会让无数的中央帝国无人机自由漫游，并积极跟踪以前几乎无懈可击的北美帝国潜艇。（喵：真是一个美妙的前景）

阅后即焚 喵星万岁