傅莹：中美应该为“竞合”时代做准备

【文/ 傅莹】

目前中美关系急剧下行，已超出所有人预期。虽然我对中美关系曾经感到悲观，然而形势下滑之快也超出我的预料。可以用“偏执焦虑”来描绘此刻在华盛顿谈起中国时的气氛。

特朗普政府上任不到一年，美国便宣布进入“大国竞争新时代”，将中国定性为首要的战略竞争者，相继挑起贸易、科技摩擦，在教育、人才交流方面也大小动作不断。同时，美国调整军事力量，聚焦西太平洋，锋芒指向中国，在挑动对华紧张关系时要求同盟站队。面对这种情况，中国虽未放弃长期以来的对美合作方针，但不得不对飞来的拳脚做出回击。

冷战后，中美的国家基本路线出现不同方向的演进。中国对世界趋势的判断是，在经历了两次热战和长期冷战之后，各国都希望在持久和平的环境中谋求发展。中国顺势而为，坚持改革开放、集中精力发展经济，已成长为世界第二大经济体，建立了广泛的全球合作伙伴关系，对国际事务的参与和影响上升。

而美国在冷战后试图维系世界霸权，按照自己的意愿改造其他国家，发动了多场战争，透支了国家的力量。2008年的金融危机使得国内矛盾深化，中产阶层生活质量下降，至今仍未完全恢复。近年美国社会进入痛苦的反思，但一些人士却想找更便捷的道路：拿中国当替罪羊。美国试图阻止中国崛起的做法，给国际形势带来不确定性。

挑战在于，未来中美两国能否在维护现行国际体系的基础上解决彼此矛盾和分歧，这将是决定21世纪人类命运和前途的重大选择。需要认识到的是，共赢就意味着双方都有所得、也有所不得。

傅莹近照

那么，中方希望如何塑造中美关系呢？我观察，中方始终抱有与美国保持合作关系的愿望。在中方的积极推动下，特朗普总统与习近平主席于今年六月大阪会晤时，重申将推动实现基于稳定、协调、合作的双边关系。贸易谈判得以重启，并且有望达成第一阶段协议。

看未来中美关系，大概有三种前景。第一是经过一段时间的较量和磨合，双方应能找到新的交往路径，实现某种“竞合”（coopetition）态势，即保持必要的互利合作，管控好不可避免的良性竞争。

这是一个比较理想的前景，需要双方共同努力去实现。然而，正所谓树欲静而风不止，第二种前景是滑向全面对抗。美国决策层确实有股力量在推动对华政策往这个方向走，其动员力和影响力都在扩大。他们已经着力在推动两国脱钩，作为迈向对抗的前奏。

第三种趋势则是继续像目前这样漂流一段，拖延对相互关系的最终定位，这样有利于更加冷静地观察和判断。挑战在于如何把控好对突发事件的反应和再反应。

美国似乎认定中国是要争夺主导世界的权力，因此把与中国的竞争视为一场输不起的较量。这是在对中国意图曲解基础上的一种严重误判。而在中国，许多人认为美国试图阻止中国的发展，阻挡人民实现更好的生活。中国对此必须进行坚决的斗争，不能允许任何人阻挡我们追求人民幸福和国家富强的努力。中国从未提出要与美国争夺世界霸权或取代美国的政策，我们走的是和平发展的道路，争的是自己合理和平等的发展权利。

看中美关系的未来，关键在于双方能否继续在同一个国际体系内和平共存，解决分歧。如果两国滑向对抗，则有可能导致世界的分裂。为了防止这种情况发生，其他国家也能发挥重要作用。

习近平主席提出构建人类命运共同体的主张，并且主张构建相互尊重、公平正义、合作共赢的新型国际关系。这是植根于中国政治、文化的大智慧，也符合世界潮流和各国人民的共同利益。这也应该是中美关系理性发展的方向。

作者系中国外交部前副部长，清华大学战略与安全研究中心主任，英语原文及译文首发于FT。

Fu Ying

The rapid downward slide of China-US relations has exceeded everyone’s expectations. Even though I who was quite pessimistic, I did not foresee this nose dive. If one talks about China in Washington now, the atmosphere can best be described as paranoid.

Less than a year after President Donald Trump took office, Washington declared that the US had entered an era of “great power competition” with China as its top strategic rival. The US has taken steps big and small to bash China on trade, technology and student and personnel exchanges. It has also shifted military resources towards the western Pacific, targeting China while pressuring its allies to take the American side as it provokes tension. As for China, though it has not given up its long-held policy of co-operation, it has to fight back against the bullying fists.

Since the end of the cold war, China and the US have headed in different directions. China believes the world, having endured two world wars and a long cold war, is turning to development in a peaceful environment. China has followed this trend; it has reformed and opened up its economy and concentrated on growth. It is now the world’s second-largest economy with a global network of partners. Its participation and influence in international affairs have also grown.

In contrast, the US sought to preserve American hegemony and has endeavoured to mould other countries in ways it preferred. It has waged a series of wars and overstretched its power. The 2008 financial crisis aggravated its domestic problems and caused a decline in the quality of life for its middle class, who have yet to fully recover. American society is in the midst of a soul-searching self-examination, but some are taking the easier path of scapegoating China. American attempts to suppress China’s rise are causing global uncertainty.

The challenge now is for China and the US to handle the fractures in their relationship within the existing international system. Their choices will determine the future of humanity in the 21st century. To achieve a win-win result, both sides must accept that neither can gain all and there has to be give and take.

How does Beijing hope to shape its relationship with Washington? My observation is that China has been trying to maintain its co-operative relations with the US. Thanks to China’s proposal, President Trump joined President Xi Jinping to reaffirm to advance bilateral relations focused on stability, co-ordination and co-operation after meeting in Osaka in June. Trade talks restarted with a good hope for phase one agreement.

Looking ahead, I see three scenarios. First, after ironing out the kinks, China and the US should find a new model for interaction that I would dub “co-opetition”: maintaining necessary, mutually beneficial co-operation while managing unavoidable but benign competition. 

This relatively ideal scenario would require lots of effort from both sides. But the Chinese saying goes, “the trees prefer calm, but the wind will not cease”. The second scenario is full confrontation. There are forces in US policy circles determined to push this direction. Their ability to influence policy and public opinion is growing strong. They are already trying to decouple the two countries as a prelude for confrontation. 

The third scenario is the state we are in: drifting. This allows each country to delay its final strategic choice, giving it time to observe and judge the other side more calmly. The challenge lies in ensuring emerging problems are handled in a measured way. 

The US appears to believe strongly that China is seeking global dominance and sees their rivalry as a battle it can’t afford to lose. This is a serious misinterpretation. In China, many believe that the US intends to stop China’s development and prevent its people from achieving their hopes for better life. In this view, China has to resolutely fight back because it cannot allow anyone to forestall its people’s pursuit of happiness, livelihood and national prosperity.

It must be noted that China has never stated that its policy is to seek global supremacy or wants to take over the US role. Our path has been one of peaceful development; and our fight is for the legitimate and equal right to development.

The challenge for the future of China-US relations lies in whether the two can find ways to coexist in the same international system and resolve their differences. If they move towards confrontation, that may lead to the tearing apart of the world. To prevent such a prospect, the other countries also have an important role to play. 

President Xi has advanced the idea of “building a community with a shared future” and promoting international relations featuring mutual respect, fairness, justice and co-operation. This idea is rooted in Chinese political and cultural wisdom and is consistent with the global trend and the common interests of all. It is also the right direction for China-US relations. 

The writer is former Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs of China and Chairperson of the Center for International Security and Strategy of Tsinghua University