罗思义：见习近平之前，是什么让特朗普“压力山大”？

【文/观察者网专栏作者 罗思义】

中国国家主席习近平和美国总统特朗普将会在G20大阪峰会期间会晤的消息公布后，美股大幅上涨。正如英国《金融时报》一针见血地指出：“特朗普计划同习近平会晤就美中经贸合作进行沟通，推动美国股市大幅上扬。”

这对特朗普来说是一个令人愉悦的喜讯，毕竟这段时间一连串坏消息让特朗普总统“压力山大”——连任民调数据和美国经济数据都不理想。自然，中美元首会晤要谈的方面涉及很多，谈判的细节只有参与谈判的人才能知道，而本文所要谈的是特朗普现在客观上面临的压力。

连任选战伊始，特朗普民调出师不利

特朗普面临的首要压力是，此前数月直到他6月18日正式启动竞选连任以来，他的民调一直不佳。竞选“官宣”的数天前，他解雇了五名竞选团队民调专家中的三人，理由是内部民调外泄，而外泄的民调内容显示特朗普在关键州的民意支持率大幅落后于民主党2020年大选参选人乔·拜登(Joe Biden)——例如，在明尼苏达州和密歇根州，特朗普的支持率均为40%，拜登的支持率则分别为54%和53%。

特朗普竞选团队曾对17个州作内部民调，3月份的一项内部民调显示，特朗普在威斯康星州、宾夕法尼亚州、佛罗里达州和密歇根州等摇摆不定的关键州以两位数劣势落后于拜登。而一向支持特朗普的福克斯新闻（Fox News）发布的6月9日至12日的最新民调显示，特朗普在全国范围内的民意支持率落后于民主党人伯尼•桑德斯（40%VS49%）和拜登（39%VS49%）。

民主党2020参选人拜登

概括说来，宣布竞选伊始，特朗普民调即落后于民主党对手。在这种政治形势下， 2019-2020年美国经济前景便显得对特朗普至关重要。

2019-2020年的美国经济：特朗普给的数据靠谱吗？

对于2019-2020年美国经济前景，存在两种截然不同的观点。首先，特朗普政府自身，包括部分中国媒体也认为，由于美国减税或其他原因，2019年美国经济将加速增长——这对特朗普来说显然是一个有利的政治消息。2019年3月，特朗普政府发布的官方预算报告预测，2019年美国GDP将增长3.2%，2020年则将增长3.1%——这均高于2018年的2.9%，也符合特朗普的说法，即美国经济在其总统任期内每年至少增长3%。

第二种观点，包括IMF（国际货币基金组织）、笔者和其他人认为，2019年美国经济将面临下行压力——不是经济衰退，而是美国经济将增长放缓。新出炉的美国经济数据，充分印证了后一种观点。

包括石油和天然气行业在内的美国工业总产出自2018年底以来停滞不前——截至5月，美国工业总产出比2018年12月水平低0.9%。同期美国制造业产出下降1.5%，下降幅度更大。2019年5月，美国制造业产出比11年前的2007年12月水平还低了4.8%。这意味着特朗普振兴美国制造业的政策失败了。

就采购经理人指数（PMI）而言，美国综合采购经理人指数从2019年4月的53.0大幅下降至5月的50.9，是自2016年5月以来私营部门扩张最为疲弱的一次。同期美国制造业采购经理人指数则从52.6跌至50.5，为2009年以来的最低水平；同期美国服务业采购经理人指数则从53跌至50.9，创39个月新低。

美国就业数据同样呈放缓趋势。5月份新增非农就业75000人，而4月份为224000人，前三个月平均为144000人。

西方分析师：美国可能陷入衰退

一些著名的西方和美国分析师认为，美国经济放缓将非常严重，有可能陷入衰退——至少连续两个季度负增长。比如，彭博社高级编辑和英国《金融时报》前首席评论员约翰·奥瑟斯（John Authers）6月18日在其发表的标题为《市场出现衰退不可避免》和副标题为《不仅仅是债券市场在暗示美国经济将出现严重放缓》的文章中指出：

“且不提及美中贸易关系日渐恶化，我们能预测未来的市场吗？答案是肯定的。债券市场的动向仿佛是在为某种可能发生的可怕的事做准备，交易员们确实在为此而恐惧。

最新的证据是纽约联邦储备银行周一出炉的纽约帝国州制造业指数。数据可谓异常糟糕，创上一次衰退以来最大月跌幅……如果不是预示一场真正的衰退即将来临，它一般在低位徘徊如此之久。

通常被视为制造业领先指标的美国卡车运输业的状况看起来也好不到哪里去。这是FTR货运状况指数……它综合衡量了关于卡车运输需求的几个不同因素。低于零的数据显示了经济存在萎缩的风险。

工业金属价格也成为了另一个有力的市场衰退指标。彭博工业金属分类指数（Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex）显示，特朗普政府执政第一年对经济增长的乐观情绪已经消散。

此外，以美股为例，即便整体市场继续表现强劲，但我们依然能看到过往衰退前常见的一些迹象……除非投资者持悲观态度，否则他们一般不会大规模买入公用事业股。尽管债券市场有一些技术因素推动了当前的通缩恐慌，但似乎确实有许多因素正指向经济放缓！”

美国经济不会陷入衰退，但会从峰值回归低谷

笔者分析认为，认为美国经济今年将陷入衰退的观点有所夸张了，具体原因在我的新书《别误读中国经济》中有详细的分析。

罗思义新作《别误读中国经济》

2018年美国GDP同比增长2.9%，处于经济周期上行峰值。预计美国经济增速在一年内从经济周期的峰值降至衰退期的数值——接近2008年国际金融危机规模的情况不会发生。也尚没有迹象表明，2019年美国将再次发生自大萧条以来的更大的金融危机的可能。

相反，2019年美国经济将只是放缓，而非衰退。据IMF预测，美国GDP增速将从2018年的2.9%降至2019年的2.3%，而笔者预测的美国GDP增速则比IMF的稍高一点，但IMF的预测不是毫无道理。美国经济趋势表明，特朗普政府所宣称的“美国经济将增长加速”的说法是错误的。

相反，2019年美国经济增长将有所放缓，2020年美国经济增速甚至将慢于2019年。这对特朗普来说是一个严重的问题，因为2020年是选举年。

显然，中美元首即将在G20大阪峰会期间会晤的消息出炉当天，种种迹象表明，特朗普政府对美国经济状况感到严重关切。据彭博社透露，特朗普政府曾考虑是否有可能走法律程序解雇自己任命的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）——后者是于2018年2月就职，这种行为是前所未有的。这显然预示着，特朗普政府对美国经济面临的下行压力非常担忧。

在即将到来的G20峰会上，习近平将与特朗普会晤

虽然我们没有必要夸大其辞，毕竟现在距离美国总统大选尚有17个月时间，这意味着特朗普尚有余地扭转民调不利的局面。虽然一些美国分析师预测2019年美国经济将陷入衰退，但如上文所述，2019年美国经济将只经历放缓，而非衰退——不过，如果2019年美国经济增长放缓太过明显，2020年出现衰退也不是不可能——但这显然对特朗普来说是极为不利的。即使不出现真正的经济衰退，民调和美国经济数据均走低，显然也会给特朗普政府带来明显的压力。

尽管美国经济形势不是唯一的因素，但这显然是G20大阪峰会中美元首会晤的背景之一。

作者注：本文是在习近平应约与特朗普通电话，从而达成两者在G20大阪峰会会晤的协定之前完成。形势的发展印证了文中的分析。

本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。

本文英文原文：

Bad polls & bad economic data put pressure on Trump US

share markets rose sharply on news of the announcement that Presidents Xi and Trump would meet at the G20 summit – as the Financial Times simply summarised it ‘Trump plan to meet Xi on trade sends US equities sharply higher’. This was a welcome piece of goods news for President Trump after a period during which he had been receiving bad news both on the opinion polls for his re-election and for the US economy. Naturally there are many aspects of the planned meeting that only those involved in the negotiations will know, but it is worth noting the objective pressures which are now bearing down on Trump.

Negative polls for Trump at the beginning of the Presidential election campaign

The first, and probably most important pressure on President Trump, was that opinion polls leading to the official launch of his re-election campaign on 18 June had been unfavourable for several months. Days before his official relaunch event his campaign dismissed three of his five polling advisers after leaks of internal polling showed the president had been trailing former Democrat Joe Biden in key states which would decide the outcome of the 2020 election – for example in Minnesota Trump trailed Biden 40% to 54% and in Michigan by 40% to 53%. Analysing 17 states, polling taken in March showed Trump trailing Biden by double digits in key swing states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan. More recent polls on 9-12 June, released by Fox News, a strongly pro-Trump TV channel, showed Trump nationally trailing nine percent behind Democrat Bernie Sanders (40% to 49%) and ten percent behind Biden (39% to 49%).

In summary as the Presidential election campaign was launched Trump was trailing badly behind Democratic rivals. In that political situation, evidently, the prospects for the US economy in 2019-2020 were crucial for Trump.

Prospects for the US economy in 2019-2020

Regarding these economic prospects for the US in 2019-2020 two substantially different perspectives for the US economy in 2019-20 had been put forward. The first, that of the Trump administration itself, echoed by some media in China, argued that due to the US tax cuts, or other reasons, the US economy would speed up in 2019 – which would evidently be good political news for Trump. In March 2019, in its official budget forecasts, the Trump administration projected 3.2% GDP growth in 2019 and 3.1% in 2020 – both faster than the 2.9% in 2018 and in line with President Trump’s claim that the US economy would grow at least 3% a year during his presidency.

The second perspective, held by the IMF, the present author, and others, was that the US economy would experience downward pressure in 2019 – not that there would be a recession but that the US economy would slow. The most recent US economic data has clearly confirmed this latter perspective.

US total industrial production, including the oil and gas sector, had stalled since the end of 2018 – by May US total industrial production was 0.9% lower than in December 2018. The decline in US manufacturing production, 1.5% in the same period, was sharper. In May 2019 US manufacturing production was still 4.8% lower than its level more than 11 years previously in December 2007 - the Trump policy to attempt to strongly revive US manufacturing production had been a failure.

In terms of Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI), the US Composite PMI stood at 50.9 in May 2019 sharply down from 53.0 in April and the weakest expansion in the private sector since May 2016. The US manufacturing PMI in the same month fell to its lowest level since 2009 – a manufacturing PMI of 50.5 vs 52.6 in April, while the services PMI slowed to a 39-month low – at 50.9 at vs 53 in April.

US jobs data showed the same slowing trend. In May the US added only 75,000 non-farm payroll jobs compared to 224,000 in April and an average 144,000 in the three previous months.

Analysts who believe there will be a recession

Some important Western and US analysts believed that this slowing was so severe it indicated the US would enter a recession – that is at least two quarters of negative growth. For example, John Authers, Senior Bloomberg Editor for Markets and former Chief Markets Commentator for the Financial Times, made the following analysis on 18 June under the self-explanatory headline ‘Markets Are Acting Like a Recession Is Unavoidable’ with the subheading ‘It’s not just the bond market that’s signalling a severe economic slowdown.’

‘Would it be possible to explain what is going on in markets without making reference to the deteriorating U.S.-China trade relations? I am beginning to suspect that it would. Bond markets may be behaving as though they are bracing for something terrible to happen because traders are, indeed, scared that something terrible is going to happen.

‘Exhibit A is the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Index that was released Monday. It was terrible, showing the biggest monthly decline since the last recession…  it doesn’t drop this low for long without presaging a true recession to come.

‘Conditions for the U.S. trucking industry, often regarded as a leading indicator for manufacturing, look no better…. the FTR Trucking Conditions Index… combines several different factors about demand for trucking. Figures below zero show a risk of contraction.

‘Industrial metals provide another strong market-based recession indicator. The Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex suggests that the optimism on growth that accompanied the first year of the Trump administration has dissipated.

Industrial Metals Subindex

‘Looking at the U.S. stock market, we see the type of relative performance that would be expected in the run-up to a recession, even if the overall market continues to show robust performance…  Investors tend not to buy utilities on the scale that we have seen lately unless they are pessimistic. There are technical factors in the bond market that have driven the current deflation scare, but there do appear to be a number of factors pointing toward an economic slowdown.’

A slowdown not a recession

The analysis of the present author is that the view that the US economy will move into recession this year are exaggerated, for reasons which are analysed at length in my book ‘Don’t Misunderstand China’s Economy’.

US growth in 2018 was 2.9% - at the peak of the upswing of a business cycle. It would be an extraordinarily sharp decline, approaching the scale of the international financial crisis of 2008, for the US to fall from the peak of a business cycle to a recession in a single year. Conditions for such a repeat of the greatest financial crisis for 80 years, since the Great Depression, are not indicated at present. Instead a slowdown of the US economy, not an actual recession, will occur in 2019. The IMF itself projects a fall in US growth from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.3% in 2019 – I would estimate that growth could be slightly higher, but the IMF figure is not unreasonable. But what such a trend indicates is that the Trump administration’s claims that US growth would accelerate are false. Instead growthin 2019 would fall. And growth in 2020 would be lower than in 2019 – a serious issue for Trump as 2020 is an election year.

Certainly, information which leaked on the same day that the Xi Jinping – Trump summit was announced indicated clearly the Trump administration felt seriously concerned about the state of the US economy. It was leaked to Bloomberg that, in an unprecedented move, the Trump administration had explored if it was possible legally to dismiss their own appointed Chair of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell – who had only take up office in February 2018.  This was immediately understood to indicate that the Trump administration feared the downward pressure on the US economy.

It is important not to exaggerate. It is still 17 months to the US presidential election. This means the bad polling numbers for Trump can still be overcome – but they are clearly a negative for him. While some US analysts project a recession in 2019, for the reasons given here it is much more likely that the US economy will slow in 2019 rather than a recession occur – although if the economy slows significantly in 2019 a recession in 2020 is entirely not impossible, which would clearly be ultra- negative for Trump. But even without an actual recession what this combination of bad polling numbers and economic deceleration does produce is clearly pressure on the Trump administration.

This is not the only factor in the situation, but it is clearly part of the background to the Xi-Trump summit at the G20.

This article was finished before it was made public that the US side requested the phone call with China which led to agreement on the Xi Jinping-Trump summit. This information is in line with the analysis in the article.1111MicrosoftInternetExplorer402DocumentNotSpecified7.8 磅Normal0