日本网友热议弃美盟中，外国网友：醒一醒，兄弟！_风闻

近日，有知名论坛网站“ 5ch”上，有日本网友提出了这样一个问题：

在不久的将来，如果日本离开美国轨道，与中国结成更紧密联盟的可能性有多大？

对此，各国网友表达了各自的看法。

1、Scavenger

In the near future? I don’t see it happening within 100 years!

不久的将来？我想100年内不会发生！

For Japan:

日本：

Japanese people’s view of China for the past 100 years range anywhere from outright hostile to incredibly suspicious. Even in the wake of Xi-Abe meetings in 2018, a whooping 78% of the Japanese surveyed held a negative view of China, the highest among other countries surveyed.

过去100年来，日本人对中国的看法从完全敌视到令人难以置信的怀疑，不一而足，即使在2018年中日会议之后，78% 的日本受访者对中国持负面看法，在接受调查的其他国家中，这一比例是最高的。

The Japanese are, on average, very supportive of the US-Japan alliance.China still hates Japan for WWII, and most people don’t want to see their country allying with the country that committed the Nanjing Massacre.

一般而言，日本人非常支持美日同盟。中国仍然因为二战而憎恨日本，而且大多数人不希望看到他们的国家和发动南京大屠杀的国家结盟。

Japan is one of the countries with the highest negative perception of China in the world, losing out only to Vietnam and Mongolia (probably)

日本是世界上对中国负面印象最深的国家之一，仅次于越南和蒙古( 可能 )。

For America:

美国：

Most Americans strongly support American interference and involvement on every continent of the earth. For America to lose its number one ally in East Asia would mean a huge blow to American pride. Any president that allows this to happen would either be impeached or violently thrown out of the White House.

大多数美国人强烈支持美国干涉和介入地球上的每一块大陆，对美国来说，失去其在东亚的头号盟友将意味着对美国自豪感的巨大打击，任何允许这种情况发生的总统要么被弹劾，要么被暴力赶出白宫。

America does not want to see a strong China, either militarily or economically. This is the reason why America refused to back China’s OBOR, and why America intentionally created the Trans-Pacific Partnership just to ignore China; America is doing what it can to contain the rise of China, not support it.

美国不希望看到一个强大的中国，无论是军事上还是经济上。这就是为什么美国拒绝支持中国的 OBOR（一带一路?），也是为什么美国有意创建跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协议，就是为了恶心中国，美国正在尽其所能遏制中国的崛起，而不是支持它。

America is trying to form very strong ties with all countries surrounding China, not just Japan, but also Philippines and Vietnam (the former being an enemy country not too long ago). Losing a valuable ally like Japan would make both the Philippines and Vietnam question the competency of American foreign affairs.

美国正试图与中国周边的所有国家建立非常牢固的联系，不仅仅是日本，还有菲律宾和越南 ( 不久前还是敌国 )。失去像日本这样宝贵的盟友，将使菲律宾和越南都对美国外交事务的能力提出质疑。

2、Miyu Takahashi

Requested by Hatton Nicholas.“Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests”.-Henry Temple, 3rd Viscount Palmerston Japan is the MOST important U.S.

国与国之间没有永久的朋友或盟友，只有永久的利益 ——亨利·坦普尔，第三代帕默斯顿子爵，日本是美国在亚洲最重要的合作伙伴。

partner in Asia. Japan has been considered as an important part for the American world order in Asia since the end of the Second World War, and is the reason why U.S. intervened in the Korean War and the Vietnam war is the fear of a communist Japan which can easily block America’’s movement in Asia.

自第二次世界大战结束以来，日本一直被认为是美国在亚洲世界秩序的重要组成部分，也是美国介入朝鲜战争和越南战争的原因，因为美国害怕共产主义的日本可以轻易地阻止美国在亚洲的行动。

Even after the Cold War, the Japan-U.S. mutual security treaty is very important for U.S. vision for Asia, in which the Japanese are very eager collaborators. The U.S. also gives intelligence and information regarding world affairs to Japan.Oh, and Japan is the most generous nation with paying the cost of an American military presence, paying 75% of the share. Japan is a nation the United States must consider in their policy-making in Asia.

即使在冷战结束后，日美共同安全条约对于美国的亚洲愿景也是非常重要的，在亚洲，日本人是非常热切的合作者。美国还向日本提供有关世界事务的情报和信息。哦，日本也是最慷慨的国家，支付了美国军事存在的75%费用，日本是美国在亚洲制定政策时必须考虑的国家。

I do see the relationship with China getting better to a degree. However, it’’s very unlikely that the relationship with China will ever reach this degree of closeness. apan and China have viewed each other as adversaries with heavy distrust of one another, but they cooperate nonetheless because of strong economic lixs.

据我的观察，日本与中国的关系在一定程度上确实有所改善，然而，与中国的关系还不太可能达到如此密切的程度。日本和中国一直将对方视为彼此高度不信任的对手，但由于经济联系密切，两国仍进行合作。

3、Masao Miwa

Maybe not in the near future, but as Japan gets stronger militarily and her trade relations with China improves, there is a chance, especially if the US continues its isolationist stance. Japan, like China depends on trade and today, many Japanese companies depend on Japanese companies manufacturing in China and also selling to the Chinese domestic market. 20% of Japan’s trade is with China and if Hong Kong is counted as China, trade is 25%. Japan also seems to be sliding into BRI quietly though the US cautioned Japan not to do so.

也许在不久的将来不会，但随着日本军事实力的增强以及与中国贸易关系的改善，是有机会的，特别是如果美国继续其孤立主义立场的话。日本和中国一样依赖贸易，今天，许多日本公司依赖于在中国制造产品，也向中国国内市场销售产品。日本与中国的贸易占20%，如果把中国香港也算进来的话，则占到了25%，日本似乎也在悄悄地进入“一带一路”，尽管美国警告日本不要这么做。

My opinion: Trade is the cornerstone for Japan’s economic survival and looking at the future, the rising Chinese economy is posing a strong lure for Japan in the future. Japan also is increasing its investment in the BRI and that helps Japan with its soft power as it does with China in completing infrastructure in under developed countries.

我的观点是：贸易是日本经济生存的基石，展望未来，中国经济的崛起对日本未来构成了强大的诱惑力。日本也在加大对“一带一路”的投资，这有助于加强日本的软实力，比如日本与中国一起完成欠发达国家的基础设施建设一样。

4、Sayak Biswas

You serious bro?

你认真的吗，兄弟？

As per an index by Pew Research Centre this year, Japan has the highest percentage of anti-Chinese sentiment

根据皮尤研究中心今年发布的一项指数，日本的反华情绪占比是最高的。

While India’s mistrust towards China and it’s aiding of Pakistan is too well-known, however Japan is on a whole new level. And apparently this feeling is mutual. About 75% Chinese have a negative opinion of Japan, while in most other nations the positive ones outweigh the negative ones.

虽然印度对中国的不信任以及中国对巴基斯坦的援助是众所周知的，但是日本却在一个全新的层面上，显然，这种感觉是相互的，大约75% 的中国人对日本持负面看法，而在其他大多数国家，正面看法多于负面看法。

Now such a thing has historical leanings to this, and as most know, is often very controversial and something that encompasses a lot of politics and so. This I guess you might know of too well, most are related to World War 2.

这其中有历史的倾向，正如大多数人所知道的，通常非常有争议，它包含了很多政治因素，我想你应该能理解，大多数都与第二次世界大战有关。

On the other hand, Americans are pretty much responsible for security of this region where coincidentally Japan is also present, and therefore finds far more support from Japanese people and administration. Also since Americans have a common enemy in Japan’s arch-nemesis i.e. North Korea, so you know well why Japan is so much pro-America.

此外，美国人对这一地区的安全负有相当大的责任，巧合的是，日本也在这一地区，因此美国人从日本人民和政府那里得到了更多的支持，而且由于与美国人有一个共同的敌人，那就是日本的宿敌——朝鲜，所以很清楚为什么日本这么亲美。

5、Lynn Fredricks

Japan and China have their own special relationship that doesn’t include the USA, but it would not be the same were the USA not around.But it isn’t going to change in the near future. No matter what their respective governments try to accomplish, there is simply too much generational hatred in China for Japan for the relationship to be that close.

日本和中国有他们自己的特殊关系，但是无法排除美国的存在，如果没有美国就不一样了。在不久的将来，这种情况不会改变，无论两国政府试图实现什么样的目标，两国关系都不会太过亲密，因为中国对日本存在太多的世代仇恨。

This isn’t a matter just for the grandmas and grandpas in China to wrestle with, because those that haven’t come to terms with it have passed it along to the next generation. In fact, many grandmas and grandpas, as well as some untouched by it have a great deal of interest in Japan, judging by the decades of cultural exchange as well as the more recent explosion of tourism from China to Japan.

这不仅仅是中国的爷爷奶奶们要面对的问题，因为那些还没有接受这个问题的人已经把它传给了下一代。事实上，从数十年的文化交流以及最近从中国到日本旅游的爆炸式增长来看，许多老奶奶、老爷爷以及一些没有受到日本影响的人对日本有着极大的兴趣。

The Japanese government understands that their relationship with the United States is absolutely critical and will be for many more decades, especially as China comes to terms with its own transformation.This also doesn’t stop Japan from having relationships with countries that are seemingly enemies of the United States or, only have relationships with other countries by way of the relationship with the United States. Japan actually has its own relationships with both of the Iran, for example.

日本政府明白，他们与美国的关系是绝对关键的，而且还将持续几十年，尤其是在中国开始适应自身转型之时。这也不能阻止日本与那些看起来是美国敌人的国家建立关系，或者只通过美国与其他国家建立关系，例如，日本实际上与伊朗保持关系。

6、Xiao Wen

This is going to be a great thing.

这将是一件大事。

Regarding the relationship between Japan and China, one of the biggest obstacles is the dark history of the two countries in WWII. This wound cannot be healed precisely because of the decades-long US control over Japan after the war and the protection of Japanese war criminals on the battlefield in East Asia.

关于日本和中国的关系，最大的障碍之一是二战期间两国的黑暗历史，这个伤口无法愈合，恰恰是因为战后美国对日本长达数十年的控制，以及在东亚战场上对日本战犯的保护。

This is an important tool for the United States to control Japan and harm East Asian unity.If Japan and South Korea can break away from the control of the United States and strive to form an East Asian Economic Community, then everything will be bright.

这是美国控制日本，损害东亚团结的重要工具。如果日本和韩国能够摆脱美国的控制，努力形成东亚经济共同体，那么一切都将是光明的。

We have lived on the land of East Asia for thousands of years, and we hope Americans get out of here.

我们在东亚这块土地上生活了几千年，我们希望美国人离开这里。

7、Glenn Lee

It would be most beneficial for China, South Korea, and Japan to form a trade organization similar to the EU. With time the organization may be political. With closer trade relationship, the countries can trust each other more and military antagonism will decrease. Japan’s relationship with the US may be less dependent.

对中国、韩国和日本来说，组建一个类似欧盟的贸易组织最为有利。随着时间的推移，这个组织可能是政治性的。随着两国贸易关系的日益密切，两国可以相互信任，军事对抗也将减少。日本对美国的关系可能不那么依赖。

In fact, the relationship between Japan and China is not always as bad as others have described. From the Tang Dynasty more than a thousand years ago to the end of the Song Dynasty, Japan has always been the most loyal student in China!

事实上，日中关系并不总是像别人描述的那样糟糕。从一千多年前的唐朝到宋末，日本一直是中国最忠诚的学生！

At that time, China was the political, economic and cultural center of the whole East Asia, while Japan and North Korea acted as admirers and followers of Chinese civilization!

当时，中国是整个东亚的政治、经济和文化中心，而日本和朝鲜则是中华文明的仰慕者和追随者！

This kind of classical servant relationship lasted for more than a thousand years, until more than a hundred years ago, because of the aggression of western countries, it was declared to end. Do you understand? One side is more than 1000 years, the other side is more than 100 years!

这种古典仆从关系持续了一千多年，一直到最近一百多年前，才因为西方国家的侵略，而宣告终结，看明白了吗？一边是一千多年，一边是一百多年！

毫不讳言，对于网友“ Glenn Lee”的想法与倡议，老铁是表示赞同的：

对中国、韩国和日本来说，组建一个类似欧盟的贸易组织最为有利。随着时间的推移，这个组织可能是政治性的。随着两国贸易关系的日益密切，两国可以相互信任，军事对抗也将减少。

虽然，从现阶段的国际关系来看这样的倡议还只是一种美好的期待，但是正如其后面所提及的历史反问一样：

一边是一千多年，一边是一百多年

不要说时移世易，要知道日本遣唐臣服之前，同样叫嚣“东天皇敬白西皇帝”，而一场“白江口之战”，让他老老实实的做了600年的学生。