低油价对特斯拉不利吗?_风闻

【来源龙腾网】正文原创翻译：

Are low oil prices bad for Tesla?

低油价对特斯拉不利吗?

原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：辽阔天空 转载请注明出处

Ron Rule, CEO @ As Seen On TV

No, low oil prices are actually GOOD for Tesla and for EV’’s in general. 

The reason most people aren’’t buying EV’’s has nothing to do with gas prices, it has to do with range.

Thus, for most people, an EV is their second or third vehicle in their collection. It may very well be the one they drive to the office every day, but it’’s rarely their only car, because few people are willing to have their only vehicle limited by a maximum daily range. 

Lower fuel costs frees up capital that can be allocated to a second vehicle. At one point, when I lived quite a bit further from the office than I do now, I was spending about $600 per month on fuel between my getting to work every day and my wife running around doing things with the kids. If that ongoing fuel cost were reduced, we could have easily made our second vehicle an EV, but with costs what they were - both fuel and the EV costs - it wouldn’’t have made sense.

不，低油价实际上对特斯拉和电动汽车都有好处。

大多数人不买电动汽车的原因与汽油价格无关，而与行驶里程有关。

因此，对大多数人来说，电动汽车是他们收藏的第二辆或第三辆车。很可能是他们每天开车去上班的地方，但很少是他们唯一的车，因为很少有人愿意把他们唯一的车辆限制在每天的最大行驶里程范围内。

较低的燃料成本释放了可分配给第二辆车的资金。有一次，当我住得比离现在的办公室远一点的时候，从每天上班到妻子带着孩子四处奔波，我每个月都要花600美元买燃料。如果持续的燃料成本降低，我们可以在轻松地购买第二辆车时选择电动汽车，但如果成本与实际成本（燃料成本和电动汽车成本）持平，那就没有意义了。

I actually did the math. At 2007 fuel and EV prices, I would have to have driven that EV 327,000 miles to break even on fuel savings. 

I still wanted an EV though, just because I’’m an auto buff and technology geek, and it’’s the perfect manifestation of both. And since I’’m also on a perpetual quest to be Batman in real life, in 2011 I decided to build my own. Four years later, here is the end result:

Believe it or not, what you’’re looking at was once a 1968 Volkswagen Beetle. Today, it’’s powered by a series wound DC motor and 38 lithium phosphate batteries, has a range of around 90 miles, and does 0-60 in about 3 seconds. No doors, hydraulic top that opens and closes with a keyless entry button, and painted Satin Black. 

Total cost was about $20,000 - more than I would ever have spent on fuel in a Beetle, that’’s for sure.

Fuel costs aren’’t why people go electric. Performance, Eco-friendliness, and being a part of an emerging technology is. For Tesla, they’’re targeting an audience who would otherwise buy a Jaguar XJ or BMW 7 series. This isn’’t a group that cares about the cost to fill the tank. 

But for everyone else, low fuel prices get them closer to being able to afford to go electric.

我真的计算过了。以2007年的燃油和电动汽车价格计算，我必须开32.7万英里的电动汽车才能在节约的燃油方面与实现收支平衡。

 但我仍然想要一辆电动汽车，仅仅因为我自身是一个汽车爱好和技术宅的完美追求者。其实我2011年在追求成为现实生活中的蝙蝠侠，于是我决定建立自己造一个蝙蝠侠。四年后出来的结果是：信不信由你，如今你看到的是一辆1968年产的大众甲壳虫。它由一个串联直流电动机和38节磷酸锂电池供电，续航里程约为90英里，在3秒钟内完成0-60英里。没有门，液压方式从顶部打开和关闭与无钥匙进入按钮，车身并被涂上缎黑色油漆。总成本约为20000美元——这是肯定的，比我在甲壳虫上花在燃料上的钱还多。

燃料成本不是人们用电的原因。性能、环保以及成为使用新兴技术等等这些才是用电的原因。对于特斯拉来说，他们瞄准的是那些原本会购买捷豹XJ或宝马7系的消费者。这不是一个关心燃油成本的群体。

但对其他有些人人来说，低油价使他们在燃油上的消耗就更接近能够负担得起的电力消耗了。

Joe Philleo, former Product Manager at Citizen (2018-2019)

As Ian McCullough, Joseph Boyle, and Joan Hoffman have pointed out, Tesla sells high-end, high-priced cars. The amount of money spent on gas probably isn’’t a legitimate consideration for a lot of the buyers.

But, that doesn’’t mean low oil prices don’’t affect Tesla; the issue is branding. No matter how rich you are, you probably know the price of gas. It’’s literally posted everywhere: the news, the radio, every street, every gas station, and lately every other news article. Whether it affects your wallet or not, you know the price of gas because that price is culturally influential. And, the rich - like everyone else - are suckers for what’’s popular.

When the price of oil is high, that cultural influence works towards Tesla’’s (and other electric/clean energy company’’s) benefit. There’’s just relatively more public interest in electric cars, smart cars, hybrids, etc [1]. That public interest translates into news, articles, and conversations. Clean becomes cool. Demand for Tesla cars increases. The more status-minded the rich (China), the more influential the cultural perception of gas prices will be. 

Similarly, if gas prices drop, Tesla loses some of that free publicity and extra “cool” factor. However, by this point a lot of Tesla’’s value is beyond just the electric aspect. It’’s “ludicrous” acceleration, sleek designs, and constant innovation are all very strong selling points that are probably making gas prices less and less relevant to its branding.

In conclusion, I’’m hesitant to assert that low gas prices will necessarily be “bad” or even significant for Tesla. Still, little good comes out of cheap gas for a prolonged period.

正如伊恩·麦卡洛(Ian McCullough)、约瑟夫·博伊尔(Joseph Boyle)和琼·霍夫曼(Joan Hoffman)所指出的那样，特斯拉定位的是高端高价车。对很多买家来说，花在汽油上的钱可能不是一个必要的考虑因素。

但是，这并不意味着低油价不会影响特斯拉;问题在于宣传。不管你有多富有，你可能会关注汽油的价格。到处都有它的信息:新闻，广播，每条街道，每一个加油站，最近每一篇新闻文章。不管它是否会影响你的钱包，你都知道汽油的价格，因为这个价格具有必然的影响力。而且，富人和其他人一样，都喜欢最新信息。

当油价高企时，这会对特斯拉(以及其他电力/清洁能源公司)的利益产生必然影响。这时公众对电动汽车、智能汽车、混合动力汽车等的兴趣相对更大。公众的视线会随着新闻、杂志和相互交流对话，清洁而又环保等信息而转移。富人(中国)的地位越高，对油价的认知就越有影响力，对特斯拉汽车的需求增加。

同样，如果油价下跌，特斯拉也会失去一些免费宣传和额外的宣传优势。不过，到目前为止，特斯拉的传递的价值已经远远超出了电力方面。它的“受称赞的”加速度、时尚的设计和不断的创新都是非常强大的卖点，这可能使汽油价格与它的品牌越来越不相关。

总之，我不确定低油价对特斯拉来说一定是“坏的”甚至是有重要影响力的。尽管如此，在未来很长一段时间内，廉价的天然气也不会带来什么好处。

​