贸易战下美国邀请越南打造世界工厂，越南网友的表态，很打脸！_风闻

2019年9月3日，美国商务部发布报告称：

美国7月贸易逆差环比下降2.7%，连续两月下降，美国对中国、欧盟、日本等国家和地区的贸易逆差持续扩大，其中对欧盟的逆差创出历史新高，对华贸易逆差则升至6个月高位。

对此，《华尔街日报》评论称：

美国商务部的报告反映了美国经济内部日益加剧的分裂，不断升级的贸易战加上更广泛的全球经济放缓，如果美国还无法找到有效的进口替代国的话，那么接下来几个月可能会导致美国进出口双双下滑…

美国该何去何从？前世行行长，美国高盛集团常务董事罗伯特·佐利克4日发言称：美国也许可以将目光瞄准越南….

不过，对于佐利克意欲将越南打造成“美国进口生产国”的做法，作为当事人的越南人民，似乎并不看好：

1、Liam Nguyen

As Vietnamese, I can give you an honest answer, it is NO. There are few reasons Viet Nam need to solve but the timefrx is too short to do it:

作为越南人，我的回答是不行。有几个问题需要越南来解决，但是时间太短，所以无能为力：

A、Blue-collar worker wage is stagnant for many years, at this moment monthly salary of a blue-collar worker in city-complex is around 237 USD a month, while the cost of living in most developed areas is $400- $500 monthly. The wage growth rate annual is 10–20% while output production grow only 3% to 3.5%.

A、蓝领工人的工资已经停滞多年，此时此刻，越南城市里的蓝领工人月薪大约是237美元，而大部分发达地区的生活成本是每月400-500美元。每年的工资增长率是10-20%，而产量只增加了3-3.5%。

So you have weird situation that workers leave factory job to find better vacant in service sector. New batch of worker (from rural area) does not have enough skill to work in positions which require high precision (like making phone/electronic). Viet Nam population is around 100 million, it is not enough to compensate for loss of job in production sector. Another bigger complains from China/foreign investors is Vietnamese workers are lazier than Chinese one, it is hard to get them work overtime (10-12 hours) which is norm in China.

所以发生了一种奇怪的现象，那就是工人离开从工厂辞职去服务业部门寻找更好的职位。而来自农村地区的新工人没有足够的技能从事高精度的职位（比如制造手机和电子产品）。越南人口大约1亿，无法补偿生产部门的工人损失。中国和其他外国投资者的另一个更大的抱怨是越南工人比中国工人懒惰，很难让越南工人加班（10-12小时），而这在中国是常态。

B、Concern about environment. Prime example is Formosa scandal. Taiwan plastic manufacturer dispose a large amount of their industrial waste into seaside, their smoke also harm local welfare. There was large protest against that company and compensation to victim (500 million).

B、对环境的担忧。一个显著的例子就是福尔摩沙丑闻。这家台湾塑料厂家将大量的工业废物倒到海里去，他们所产生的烟雾也影响到了当地人的健康。越南人对这家公司发起了大规模的抗议活动，向受害者赔偿了5亿。

Viet Nam does not have big square land suit for industrial scale. This will be big set back to foreign investors. Vietnameses start concerning for environment, they tend to against industrial production which will polute landscape and air.

越南没有足够的土地来进行大规模的工业化，这对于外国投资者而言是一个巨大的不足。越南人开始关心自己的环境，他们倾向于反对工业生产，因为那会污染他们的土地和空气。

C、state and local government meet with much difficulty to expand and open new industrial land. Many provinces choose not to spend theit budget on infrastructure for local project.To become high quality and efficiency nation like China/Japan/Korea. There is need for network of support industry.

国家和地方政府在扩大和开发新的工业用地方面遇到了很大的困难。许多省份选择不把利润预算花在地方项目的基础设施上，成为像中国/日本/韩国这样的高质量、高效率的国家。有必要建立支撑产业网络。

There is famous saying from a local car manufacturer, when people find out many components are being import from China! “Precision manufacturing is zero in Vietnam, we can’t even find a cheap quality bolt without shopping in neighbor country”. Bolt, wire, chip, lens…you name it. Fact that Samsung Vietnam relies on China suppliers for most of their component!!

当地一家汽车制造商有句名言：“人们发现许多零部件都是从中国进口，越南的精密制造业为零，如果不到邻国采购，我们甚至找不到便宜的优质螺栓，电线，芯片，镜头…。”事实上，三星在越南的大部分零部件都依赖中国供应商！！

My conclusion is there will be little good time for Viet Nam, to take advantage on Trade War, but those problems can’t be solved by policies or command. Thing was wrong from beginning and government was too slow to solve it.

我的结论是，越南利用贸易战的时机不多，但这些问题不能靠政策或指挥来解决。事情从一开始就错了，政府效率太低，解决不了。

2、Jason Cheng（回复Liam Nguyen）

Yes, your opinion is objective and fair.

是的，你的看法很客观公正！

Vietnamanese people are the greatest people in the world. The country is about to take off with or without trade issues in China. It will never completely replace China as a place for manufacturing simply because it’s entire population is only 90something million and China has 1.3 billion.

越南人是世界上最伟大的人。不管中国和美国存在着怎样的贸易问题，越南经济都将起飞。但是在制造业上永远无法替代中国，因为其人口才9000万左右，而中国人口13亿。

Not only that, compared with China, Vietnamese workers also have a great disadvantage in quality. Many of them can only write their own names, not to mention the operation of complex machines!

不仅如此，与中国相比，越南工人在素质上也有很大的劣势。他们中的许多人只能自己写名字，更不用说操作复杂的机器了！

I have two pairs of Adidas sneakers, one made in China and the other made in Vietnam. Until today, I often suspect that the new version made in Vietnam is made in Shanzhai shoes.

我有两双阿迪达斯运动鞋，一双是中国制造，另一双是越南制造。直到今天，我还经常怀疑越南制造的新版是山寨鞋。

Although not willing to admit, but the fact is that Vietnam can not replace China’s world factory status!

虽然不愿承认，但事实是越南无法取代中国的世界工厂地位！

3、Neo G Doma

Vietnan only has 100 milliom people. It’s far below the limit to be the fatory of world.

越南只有1亿人口，远远无法成为世界工厂。

Before became the factory, China could build ICBM, nuclear Submarine and a long list that Vietnan cannot do now. World factory does not mean import goods in process and assembly them, it need produce goods in process by it own.

在成为世界工厂之前，中国就已经制造出了洲际弹道导弹，核潜艇等等东西。世界工厂不意味着进口产品然后进行组装，它需要具备生产产品的能力。

4、Tom McGregor

We can anticipate a higher number of factories from China opening up across the border into Vietnam, but that had been inevitable while US-China trade wars have just accelerated the process. China’s economy had already entered a new stage a few years ago with increasing domestic consumption and greater reliance on the services sector.

我们可以预见到会有大量工厂从中国搬迁到越南，这是显而易见的，中美贸易战加速了这个进程。中国经济几年前就已经进入了新的阶段，国内消费增加，对服务业的依赖也增加。

Nevertheless, United States President Donald J. Trump raising tariffs on Chinese imports still can be disruptive to international business networks, since Chinese manufacturers are required to change supply chains and that’s not as simple as it sounds.

然而，美国总统川普对中国商品增收关税依然会对全球的商业网络造成破坏，因为中国厂家必须改变自己的供应链，而这可没有听起来那么简单。

When a company shuts down a factory in China and reopens it in Vietnam, the manufacturer has to keep productions lines flowing without interruptions. Hence, the company has to purchase land rights in Vietnam and since the country is not as developed as China there’s the possibility they have to build a factory from the ground up.

当一个公司关闭了在中国的工厂，并且在越南重新开张时，厂家必须保证生产线运行不受干扰。因此，这家公司必须在越南购买土地权，而由于越南没有中国发达， 他们可能得从头建立工厂。

The new factory needs walls and a roof, constant electricity, running water and reliable roads to transport goods and equipment to and from the site. The Chinese factory has to shut down with the equipment and machinery going to Vietnam. That’s why changing factories can take six months to a year before operations return back to normal.You also have to take into account signing contracts with laborers, managers, contractors, logistics companies and suppliers in Vietnam.

新工厂需要墙壁和屋顶、恒定的电力、自来水和可靠的道路来运输货物和设备进出工地。这家中国工厂因设备和机械运往越南而不得不关闭。这就是为什么更换工厂可能需要六个月到一年的时间才能恢复正常。你还必须考虑与越南的劳工、经理、承包商、物流公司和供应商签订合同。

In short, whether Vietnam can replace China as the world’s factory or not, but at least from the current situation of government organizations, I do not think the situation will be very optimistic!

总之，我们先不论越南是否能够替代中国成为世界工厂，但是至少从当前的政府组织情况看，我并不认为情况会有多么乐观！

5、Keine Erbse, Freelancer

No. China’s industrial process is a continental concept(from landmass to population).Vietnam is too small to replace China.A lot of people have misleadings about China’s industries,and think that China totally relies on those foreign companies.That’s not true. China’s also has a big internal consumer market(That’s the confidence of China in the trade war).

不。中国的工业过程是一个大陆概念（从陆地到人口）。越南太小，无法取代中国。很多人对中国的工业有误导，认为中国完全依赖这些外国公司。这不是真的。中国还有一个巨大的国内消费市场（这是中国对贸易战的信心）

Vietnam lacks skillful engineers and workers,proper infrastructures(comparing with China) and management efficiency, a baby in industrial process.

越南缺乏熟练的工程师和工人、适当的基础设施（与中国相比）和管理效率，是工业过程中的婴儿。

For example,the metro line of cat lihn-ha dong which built by Chinese company(Completed last year,but it still can’t be run because of the efficiency of Vietnam government). A lot of Vietnamese blame Chinese company for delaying the this project to earn more money But the fact is their corrupted officials and low efficiency management lead the higher budgets.

例如，中国公司承建的卡里恩-哈东地铁线路（去年完工，但由于越南政府的效率问题，该线路仍无法运营）。很多越南人指责中国公司拖延项目工期以赚取更多的钱，但事实是越南腐败的官员和低效的管理导致了更高的预算。

The budget of metro lines built by SKorea and Japan companies are higher than China’s on average and these projects still are delayed.Especially the metro line buit by Korean company,half distance of Chinese company project,but it costs more than China’s.

韩国公司和日本公司修建的地铁线路的预算平均高于中国，而且这些项目仍然延误，特别是韩国公司修建的地铁线路只有中国公司项目的一半，但其成本高于中国公司。

Some Vietnamese people realize the low efficiency of management in their government instead of blaming Chinese for everything.

因此，一些越南人意识到（一切问题）政府管理效率低下，而不是事事责怪中国人。

In fact, after years of observation, I was surprised to find that the Chinese seem to have some indescribable characteristics, that is a kind of quiet and pleasant mild atmosphere, they seem to be born builders!

事实上，经过多年的观察，我惊讶地发现，中国人似乎有一些难以形容的特点，那就是一种宁静宜人的温和氛围，他们似乎天生就是建设者！

They are so different. Let’s take the simplest example：

他们太不同了。让我们举一个最简单的例子：

When a lot of Vietnamese people hear “the cat lihn-ha dong metro line need 700 staffes”,their reaction is“why it needs so many staffes?Wasting…”

大多数越南人听到“卡里恩-哈东地铁需要700名员工”时，他们的反应是“为什么需要这么多员工？浪费…

When some Chinese people hear about this news,they thought“it’s a preparation for the other city metros.A good start for the future”. That’s an aspect that the difference between Chinese people and Vietnamese people,different thinking and attitude toward one thing.

当一些中国人听到这个消息时，他们认为“这是为其他城市的地铁做准备，为未来开个好头”。这就是中国人和越南人的不同，对一件事的不同想法和态度的一个方面。

Then, when a group of Vietnamese or Americans and French chattered about whether they should invest so much manpower, the Chinese had begun construction in silence, just like in the past 70 years, they always did more than they said!

然后，当一批越南人或美国人或法国人在争论是否应该投入这么多人力时，中国人已经开始默默地施工，就像过去70年一样，他们做得总是比他们说的多！

6、Al Allington

I don’t think Vietnam can take the place of China in the short term. There are many reasons. Please allow me to read an article I found on a trade website.

我不认为越南能在短期内取代中国（世界工厂）地位。原因有很多。请允许我读一篇我在贸易网站上找到的故事。

According to a major US shoe manufacturer who moved to Vietnam and then moved back to China, “The gap in worker efficiency between China and Vietnam is the biggest problem. Vietnamese workers do not work overtime at all and most of them are not skilled, resulting in low yield rates and frequently delayed delivery times. I think it takes a great deal of time and expense to train skilled workers in Vietnam. We can’t afford this cost, both in terms of time and money.”

一家美国大鞋厂搬去越南后又搬回中国，根据这家公司的说法，“中国工人效率和越南工人的效率差距是最大的问题。越南工人根本不加班，而且大部分技能不熟练，导致生产效率低，交货经常延迟。我认为需要花费很多时间和金钱才能在越南训练出熟练的劳动力。我们无法负担这个成本，包括时间和金钱成本。”

The increased demand for manufacturing space in Vietnam has also caused the cost of land and labour to soar.Between May 2017 and October 2018, wages have risen from 1,260 yuan (US$183) per month to about 2,000 yuan (US$291).

随着越来越多工厂在越南开办，也导致了土地和劳动力成本的上升。2017年5月到2018年10月间，月薪从1260元上涨到了2000元。

Then, the overburdened American company relocated to India. Fifth month later, he chose to go bankrupt. Then, with some last money, he stepped on the plane to China!

然后，负担过重的美国公司迁往印度。五个月后，他选择破产。然后，带着最后一笔钱，他踏上了去中国的飞机！

7、An Thành Hồ

Vietnam can be the new factory of the world, if US and Vietnam want so.

如果美国和越南想的话，越南是可以成为新的世界工厂的。

Of course, the premise is that the United States immediately cut its market demand by 50% and get the support of China!

当然，前提是美国立刻削减50%的市场需求量，并得到中国的支持！

显然，越南网友“An Thành Hồ”的反讽在现实世界中可能永远都不会出现：

作为全球最奢靡的资源消耗国，在美国人的字典里从来都没有“节俭”这样的词汇，而即使成功削减了50%的市场需求，价廉物美的中国制造也一定会让全世界所欲罢不能….

然而，就是这样一个浅显的道理，连纸面受益国的越南人都看清了，自诩世界灯塔的美国却怎么也看不清….

所以，到底是看不清，还是不想看清？