美前财长：说中国“汇率操纵”？这是在砸自家招牌_风闻

美前财长：说中国“汇率操纵”？这是在砸自家招牌来源：中国日报

当地时间8月6日，美国前财政部长、哈佛大学前校长劳伦斯•萨默斯（Lawrence Summers）在《华盛顿邮报》撰文称，美国财政部长斯蒂芬·姆努钦（Steven Mnuchin）将中国列为“汇率操纵国”，明显是顺应其“老板”的政策，不仅损害了自己的信誉，更损害了美国财政部的公信力。

美国前财政部长、哈佛大学前校长劳伦斯•萨默斯

华盛顿邮报：宣称中国是“汇率操纵国”，姆努钦损害了自己的信誉

美国财政部长斯蒂芬·姆努钦

北京时间8月6日，美国财长姆努钦将中国列为“汇率操纵国”，并称他会请求国际货币基金组织进行干预。

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Monday named China a currency manipulator … and said he would ask the International Monetary Fund to intervene.

姆努钦曾明确表示他这是在执行特朗普总统的命令，此前中国央行允许其货币贬值超过2%，使得美元兑人民币汇率“破7”，超出美国重要的心理防线。

Mnuchin made clear he was doing President Trump’s bidding after the Chinese central bank allowed its currency to decline by more than 2 percent below the psychologically important level of seven yuan, or renminbi, to the dollar.

“汇率操纵”的帽子不是说安在中国头上就能安在中国头上的。

我们先来看看什么是“汇率操纵”？萨默斯在文章中解释了“汇率操纵”的概念：

如果某个国家干预外汇市场，以压低其货币币值的方式促进出口、阻碍进口，其效果就跟对进口产品征收关税、向出口产品提供补贴一样。特别值得注意的是，此前被视为汇率操纵国的国家，普遍会出现大量贸易顺差。

When a country intervenes in the foreign-exchange market to depress its currency so as to promote exports and discourage imports, something equivalent to imposing tariffs on imports and providing subsidies to exports is happening. This is especially of concern when, as in the case of countries previously deemed manipulators, a country is running a substantial trade surplus.

那么，中国符合“汇率操纵国”的情况吗？萨默斯给出明确的答案——中国并非如此！

中国并不符合上述情况。

China does not come close to fitting this template.

萨默斯在文章中给出了详细的理由，跟CD君一起来看看吧。

➀  

中国主动调整贸易顺差

过去八年时间，为应对来自美国的压力，中国已将贸易顺差从GDP占比8%以上降低至基本为0。过去几年，中国始终秉承支撑性的货币政策，对货币市场的调控一直是保持币值稳定，而非降低币值。

Over the past eight years, it has reduced its trade surplus from more than 8 percent of GDP to essentially zero in response to U.S. pressure. Its interventions in currency markets over the past several years have been to prop up its currency rather than to drive it down.

➁  

近期人民币汇率下跌并非人为

8月6日，人民币汇率下跌并非人为操纵，而是市场对新加征的美国关税的自然反应。

And the move down in the yuan on Monday was not artificial — it was an entirely natural market response to newly imposed U.S. tariffs.

没有商品优势，努力保持汇率，从而提高出口价格、降低进口价格，如此一来，宣称“汇率操纵”没有任何可靠依据。

Without some mercantile advantage, and with ongoing efforts to prop up the exchange rate and so raise export prices and reduce import prices, there is no credible manipulation claim here.

➂

如此“贴标签”显然是自毁门庭

给汇率变动贴上“中国操纵”的标签，显然是姆努钦“顺应自己老板（指美国总统）心意的决策”，而他这样做不仅损害了自己的信誉，更是损害了美国财政部的公信力。这样一来，在下一个财政困难时期，财政部的声明将更难得到市场参与者的信任。

By labeling as Chinese currency manipulation an exchange-rate move that was obviously a natural response to his boss’s policies, the secretary has damaged his credibility and that of his office. It will be harder now in the next difficult financial moment for Treasury Department pronouncements to be credited by market participants.

➃

结果只会让全球看笑话

美国把中国列为“汇率操纵国”，全球都会关注美国会不会迫使或是如何迫使中国改变汇率政策。如果中国不发生改变，这只会向中国和全世界展示美国有多无能。这样的行为怎么能是可取的呢？

Having seen the United States label China a manipulator, the world will wonder whether and how the United States will get China to change its exchange-rate policies. If Chinese policies do not change, we will have only demonstrated our impotence to China and the world. Why is that desirable?

➄

美国面临金融危机以来最高的经济风险

此外，总统肆无忌惮地口出狂言，财政部长现在也成了“帮凶”，这让企业和消费者变得恐惧，延缓开支，可能会因此导致真正的经济损失。

Further, the president’s flailing bluster, in which the treasury secretary is now a full participant, risks real economic damage as businesses and consumers become fearful and hold off on spending.

人们越来越担心，随着外汇市场的发展，美国会向中国征收更多关税，或者开始购买人民币外汇储备。最近几天，市场的反应拉响了警报，投资者涌向债券、黄金甚至比特币等避险资产，抛出股票和企业贷款等风险较高的资产。从2008年金融危机以来，目前经济衰退的风险可能是最高的。

There is a growing concern that exchange-market developments will be an excuse for yet more tariffs against China, or for the United States to start buying up Chinese currency. Markets in recent days have reacted in ways suggesting high alarm, with investors flooding into safe-haven assets such as bonds, gold and even bitcoin and flooding out of riskier assets such as stocks and loans to businesses. The risk of recession going forward might now be as high as any time since the 2008 financial crisis.

五点理由，有理有据，如此苦口婆心地劝阻！美国难道还要继续这种搬起石头砸自己脚的无理指控吗？