中美贸易战：美国网友怎么看中美贸易战_风闻

国外军坛讨论中美贸易战 [美国媒体]

Trade War with China

译文简介美国网友：美国和他制定的“美国规则”已经使世界市场扭曲，美国大资本和特殊利益集团已经处于金融金字塔的顶端。而中国也正在强化内部层级、提升相对国力。译文来源原文地址：https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/正文翻译原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：骑着毛驴到处走 转载请注明出处论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-485977-1-1.htmlTrade War with China国外军坛讨论中美贸易战评论翻译

原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：骑着毛驴到处走 转载请注明出处论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-485977-1-1.html

zealotaiur485 said: zealotaiur485 ↑

Rationality only works when both parties in the room are open to it. In the current USA-China trade war, only China is rational. The US govt is too far gone and can’t back out now. In the beginning it was a trade dispute. But now, imo, it’s pretty a bloodbath war between an old dying king (USA) and the young prince who’s next in line for the throne (China). The old king has already lost his rationality and succumbed to fear and paranoia. His entire objective right now is to wipe out any potential threats to his seat of power. Even though the tariffs are doing damage to the US as well, he doesn’t care and considers it a small price to pay in order to maintain his hegemony.Can’t talk sense into an irrational person no matter how hard you try..

只有当房间里的双方都持理性开放态度时，理智才会发挥作用。在当前中美贸易战中，只有中国是理性的。美国政府迫于种种原因，无法后退。在我看来，这是一场血腥的战争，一方是垂死的老国王(美国)，另一方是即将登上王位的年轻王子(中国)。老国王已经失去了理性，屈服于恐惧和偏执。他现在的全部目标是消灭任何潜在的，敢染指他的权力宝座的威胁。尽管关税也在损害美国，但他并不在意，反而认为这是为了维护自己的霸权而付出的一点小小的代价。不管你怎么努力，也无法说服一个失去理智的人。

PanAsian

The thing is the US and world market distortions under “US rules” is what keeps US big money special interests at the top of their domestic totem pole, so it’s very much a mirror image situation. Just as some posters have said China can sacrifice overall economic progress to reinforce their internal hierarchy and advance relative national strength,

美国和他制定的“美国规则”已经使世界市场扭曲，美国大资本和特殊利益集团已经处于金融金字塔的顶端。而中国也正在强化内部层级、提升相对国力。

Biscuits

Fact is, most if not all of US allies are countries it extensively helped build up after WW2 or countries that are outright puppets. The former has some fairly powerful countries like UK and France, but they have very seldom been willing to stand up to another superpower. They help against third world countries, but are unwilling to compromise their technological access and economical strength to help Washington against Beijing, or even Moscow

.事实上，不是所有的美国盟友都是美国在二战后帮助建立起来的，大多数受美国资助建立起来国家完全变成了美国的傀儡。英国和法国虽然很强大，但它们很少愿意对抗另一个超级大国。就算欺负第三世界国家，英国和法国都不愿牺牲自己的技术优势和经济实力，更不要说帮助华盛顿对抗北京，甚至莫斯科了。

The latter category is hilariously weak, consisting of barely independent/SAR countries like Panama, Puerto Rico, Micronesia and Nauru.In contrast, China has Russia, Pakistan and NK, all nuclear powers that are there by their own choice and ready to go very far to defend China and follow through on Chinese resolutions. Then, China has a slew of BRI countries whose relations to China I.e. they’ll help in words and when it’s convinient, but not put themselves in the firing line over superpower games.

除此之外大多数国家实力弱得可笑，包括巴拿马、波多黎各、密克罗尼西亚和瑙鲁等几乎不算独立的特区国家。相比之下，中国有俄罗斯、巴基斯坦和朝鲜，这些国家都是有核国家，而且利益和中国相同。其次，中国通过“一带一路”与很多国家建立了联系，只要这些国家在大国对抗中保持中立，中国就算达到目的了

Hendrik_2000Brigadier

I don’t think that China will copy or mimic US style of leading the world If anything there is serious study right now to return to what work for China in the past Having allies is more burden then what is worth eg US spend so much money maintaining bases all over the world and getting into conflict because of her allies, Iraq war etc. The consequence of it is imperial overstretch spending necessary amount of money for defenseI think you are reading too much of western press that is extolling American allies and lack of it for China as sign of strength.

我不认为中国将复制或模仿美国的风格引领世界对美国来说，盟友更多的是负担，美国现在化钱维持着世界各地的军事基地和冲突，因为盟友，美国在国防上花费了太多不必要的资金你对盟友关系看得过重，完全是被西方媒体对美国盟友关系的颂扬和吹捧带跑偏了而对中国来说，有没有盟友无所谓，唯我独尊才是实力的象征。

This is consistent with America’s strategy. Everywhere you go, the dollar reigns. Google/Facebook/Intel/Boeing/Big pharma dominate via patents and anti competitive practices. Systems which they created to suit them. Wherever US financial institutions/companies go, you can see the destruction of domestic alternatives. They have too much power/capital and its impossible to compete under the rules they’ve set for the world

.美国的战略与此如出一辙。无论你走到哪里，美元都占主导地位。谷歌/脸书/英特尔/波音/大型制药公司通过专利和反竞争行为占据主导地位。无论美国金融机构/公司走到哪里，你都能看到那里的本土企业遭到毁灭性打击。美国有太多的权力/资本，为世界制定下无法与美国竞争的规则。

Everyone is like peasant living under a feudal lord that dictates everything. The system, however, collapses when there is no place left to expand.

此时的每个人，就像生活在封建领主统治下的农民一样。而当没有新的地方可供拓展时，这个系统就会自动崩溃。

antiterror13There will be no single dollar extracted from Chinese exporters .. all will be paid by Americans consumers or American corporate profits

提高关税不会让美国从中国出口商那里榨取哪怕一美元.所有的钱将由美国消费者或美国公司承担。

KIENCHINThink about the growing Chinese consumer market and that is why these companies are there in the first place. The company i work for is now focusing on the greater bay area for the next big growth story

想想不断增长的中国消费市场，这就是为什么这些公司会选择留在中国。我所在的公司现在正把重点放在中国沿海的城市群，为中国下一轮的经济提速做准备。

localizerI think another take on the situation is this:China’s economy and wages are growing rapidly, comparably, in terms of purchasing power. Whatever excess industrial capacity resulting from the tariffs might be absorbed by Chinese consumers in the next few years. It might not be worth it to shift the existing supply chain in that case.

我对此有另一种看法：就购买力而言，中国的经济水平和工资水平正在快速增长。未来几年，中国庞大的消费群体可能会吸收掉因关税造成的任何过剩的工业产能。在这种情况下，改变现有的供应链可能并不值得。

The US, on the other hand, risks losing the Chinese market for its goods. The US has no room to grow domestically other than by debt. ex last year GDP was 5% nominal, debt 6%.. We shall see.、

另一方面，美国是冒着失去中国商品市场的风险在和中国打贸易战。除了债务以外，美国国内没有任何新的增长空间。美国2018年的名义GDP增长率是5%，而债务增长率却是6%。我们对此可以拭目以待

NutrientAlso, according to the World Bank, in 2017 China’s total exports accounted for less than 20% of GDP. So exports to the U.S. amount to 18% of 20%, or 3.6% of GDP. Even if the whole 3.6% should stay in China (which is not so likely), the excess goods could easily be absorbed by a small rise in the country’s internal consumption.In 10-15 years, China’s economy will double again if it policies remain good.

根据世界银行的数据，2017年中国出口总额占GDP的比例不到20%。而对美国的出口额占出口总额的18%到20%，中国总GDP的3.6%，因此，过剩的商品很容易被中国国内消费的小幅增长所吸收。如果中国今后政策执行的当，那么10-15年后，，中国经济将再次翻番。

localizerA 6% growth rate means a doubling time of less than 12 years. For 5% growth, the doubling time would be slightly over 14 years.

6%的增长率意味着中国经济翻一番只需要不到12年。如果是5%的增长率，时间要略长一点，可能要14年。

CypherNow it’s almost like a 21th-century version of The Emperor’s New Clothes, I don’t understand what is Trump’s ultimate goal for this trade war, and I begin to believe even himself has no idea what is he doing…

这场突兀的贸易战就像是21世纪版的《皇帝的新衣》，我不明白特朗普突然发起这场贸易战的最终目标是什么，我认为特朗普自己也不知道他在做什么。

XsizorI don’t think a 6% or even a 5% gdp growth can be sustained for a decade. May be three more years and by the 2030, it is going to be around 3.5 or 4% growth.

我不认为6%甚至5%的GDP增长率中国能维持十年。也许到2030年，中国的增长率已经跌至3.5%或4%左右。

GatekeeperWhat make you so sure 6% growth rate is unsustainable over the next decade?China has been growing at over 10% in the past 30 years. I know during the past 30 yearsSi 6% growth rate is not a lot when you consider US still managed 3% in a mature (maybe tired) economy.

是什么让你确信中国未来十年不可能保持6%的增长率的？在过去的30年里，中国的平均经济增长率超过了10%。既然美国作为一个庞大的经济体中仍然有着3%的增长率，那么6%的增长率对中国来说也并不算高。

XsizorThe 260% of private debt . The government would sooner or later have to restructure policies and identify / rectify the issues. Shadow banking has to be brought under control. All this means the economy will face shortages on cash available to invest in new growth. Thus the gdp growth will suffer a bit. Add in the trade war and there could be a 2.5% or 3% drop.

中国的私人债务占比达到260%。中国政府迟早要调整政策，找出/纠正这些问题。中国的影子银行必须受到控制。所有意味着中国可能面临用于投资资金短缺。再加上贸易战，中国今年GDP的增长将会受到一点影响，可能会有2.5%或3%的跌幅。

GatekeeperBoy, you bought this debt thing that western MSM keeps on about.1st, China is not even the heighest private dabt nation, in fact, most of the western nations have higher private debts than Chins, no one in the western MSM was shouting how that is going to lower their growth.

天哪，你就是典型的受西方主流媒体洗脑的典型范例第一，中国不是世界上私人债务比率最高的国家，事实上，大多数西方国家的私人债务都比中国高，但在西方的主流媒体中，没有人嚷嚷这一点。

2nd 260% maybe high but not unmanagebly so. In fact, in our younger days, most people in the UK snd US takes up mortgages of 300 to 400% of their GROSS income, and still we managed to repay the loan , and maintain our standard of life.Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying debt is good, I’m just saying the naysayers seem to think debt in China is a major problem whereas same level of debt in the west is fine.

第二，260%可能很高，但也不是无法管理。事实上，在我年轻的时候，当时大多数的英国人和美国人都背负着他们总收入的300%到400%的抵押贷款，但我们那一代人仍然设法偿还了贷款，并维持了我们的生活水平。别误会我的意思，我不是说债务是好的，我只是说反对者似乎只着眼于中国债务问题却忽略了自身的债务问题。

And while we talking about debt, you noticed this naysayers never mention Government debt, (whuch US is by some margin larger than China’s or most other nations)

当我们谈论债务问题的时候，你会发现挑刺的人从来不会提政府债务，(因为到目前为止，美国的政府债务是最高的)。

China is not immune to law of economics.But what we are saying is China hasn’t reach the maturity stage yet!China still have lots of growing room left, as pointed out in my other posts regarding underdeveloped areas of the interiors.China’s GDP per capita is only 1/4 of the US, and if China and its people is as efficient and effective in their endevours, then I don’t think there’s any reasons why China can’t continue to grow at 6% until it appraches US productivity level!

当然，中国也会受经济规律的影响。但我要说的是，中国现在还在上升期！正如我在其他帖子中指出的那样，中国仍有很大的增长空间。中国的人均GDP只有美国的1/4，如果中国和中国人民继续努力，我认为中国没有任何理由不能继续保持6%的增长速度，直到中国赶上美国的生产力水平！

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My point is China, and the Chinese people, doesn’t have to look that far back into history to know and realise. In the past 100 years we have experienced foreign invasions, two world wars, Japanese occupation, a bloody civil war, famines, droughts, political turmoils and internal battles for power, the Cold War; and all kinds of ideologies - Capitalism, Imperialism, Democracy, Republic, Communism, Socialism, command economy, mixed economy, market economywe’ve fought harder battles and survived them, and prospered afterwards.

中国和中国人民不需要追溯那么久远的历史，只要翻翻近代史，改革开放三十年的发展史，我们就会意识到，我们之前的战斗比现在更惨烈，一百年多来，我们经历了外敌入侵、两次世界大战、日本入侵、血腥内战、饥荒、旱灾、政治动荡、冷战，以及资本主义、帝国主义、民主、共和、共产主义、社会主义、计划经济、混合经济、市场经济等各种意识形态的碰撞。但今天的我们还是克服了重重困难站在这里，不但今天的我们站在这里，以后的我们仍将站立在这里

Yes it’s true that today’s China is more wary of wars, be it a hot war or an economic one. because we know it took a lot of hard work to get to where we are now .Trump will never understand this as he was born rich. He will never understand what it’s like to work hard for something to get it. That’s why he will not understand the Chinese. That’s why he will not truly understand the American farmers.

是的，今天的中国确实极力避免发生战争，无论是热战还是经济战。这并不是因为我们软弱，而是因为我们知道，我们为了今天的成就付出了多大的努力。特朗普永远不会理解这一点，因为他生来就很富有。他永远不会理解为得到某样东西而努力工作是什么感觉。这就是为什么他不会理解中国人。这就是为什么他不会真正理解美国农民的原因。