中国经济即将崩溃？这是不可能的！_风闻

2002年，美国华裔律师章家敦写了一部名为《中国即将崩溃》的书。

他在书中预言了中国经济的繁荣是虚假的，最多只能维持五年。

17年过去了，中国经济不但没有崩溃，反而更加繁盛。这些成就的背后，离不开我们坚定的理论自信。

解读中国工作室推出系列短片《中国共产党与人民同行》，让我们一同走进那段风云变幻的历史，感受中国共产党百年来艰苦卓绝的奋斗历程和取得的辉煌成就！

《理论自信：扎根中国大地的中国理念》

西方社会关于中国即将崩溃的预测从未消失，但前伦敦市副市长约翰·罗斯却认为这一定不会发生。

西方有这么一群人一直在预言中国经济走向崩溃。比较搞笑的是，这些人的信誉居然还在。最搞笑的是章家敦，2002年他写了一部名为《中国即将崩溃》的书，但中国没有崩溃。西方的问题在于他们关于中国的理论是错误的。他们认为中国经济不应该获得成功。当事实与之相反时，他们没有仔细研究事实，分析错在哪里，他们却预言中国经济不会继续增长，中国会面临大灾难。

It just raised a whole industry in the west predicting that China is going to collapse. What is ridiculous is that these people continue credibility. I mean the most farcical is Gorden Chang who wrote a book in 2002 called The Coming Collapse of China. China hasn’t collapsed. The problem in the west is that they had a wrong theory of China. They thought that Chinese economy should not succeed. When the facts went against that, instead of examining the facts， （for） example, why their theory is wrong, we predicted that Chinese economy will not grow, there will be a big disaster in China.

那么这种理论错在哪里呢？约翰·罗斯给出了自己的答案。

这些理论是错误的。错在哪里呢？他们试图否定事实。他们说自己的理论是正确的，中国并没有真正实现增长或者说中国并没有真正改善社会状况，如果他们以此依旧无法脱身，他们就会说，中国即将崩溃，因为，众所周知，中国经济在过去的三十八年里是世界上增速最快的经济。他们会说中国下一年会崩溃。如果下一年中国没有崩溃，他们就会说在那之后一年会崩溃。这不科学，我把它称为幻想文学。

Our theory was wrong. Therefore，what’s wrong with that theory. They attempt to defy the facts. They say our theory is right, China hasn’t really grown or China hasn’t really improved the social conditions or if they can’t get away with that, because, you know, China has the world’s most rapid growing economy for the last thirty-eight years, they say, well it’s about to collapse. It will collapse next year. And then when it doesn’t collapse next year, those say that it will collapse the year later, right? That is not doing science and that’s what I called fantasy literature.

澳大利亚前外交部长鲍勃•卡尔认为中国所取得的变化离不开邓小平的领导。

我认为中国经济现代化是由自邓小平以来的中国领导层推动的，伟大的邓小平领导了世界历史上最为成功的一项革命。 是的，最大的变化是中国多年来保持经济高速增长。自邓小平上台并开展改革以来，没有人预料到中国从上世纪九十年代到本世纪能够取得如此巨大的成功。没人预料到了这一点。没有硬着陆，没有经济崩溃。公众对一些艰难的措施给予支持，如九十年代的国企改革。我的意思是，没人能预料到这样的成功。当我听到一些人，尤其是美国人说中国经济迟早会走到尽头，中国将陷入停滞，我就会说，你们都说了20年了，然而它并没有发生。

I think the modernization of the Chinese economy driven by Chinese leadership since Deng Xiaoping, the great Deng Xiaoping has been the most successful revolution in world history.  Yes, the biggest change is that China has had the year after year of high economic growth. Back when I was watching the emergence of Deng Xiaoping and his reforms, nobody expected that right through the 90s and into this century, China would have such a run of success. No one expected that. No hard landing. No economic collapse. Public support for hard measures like the reforms of the state sector in the 1990s, I mean nobody could have expected such success. And when I hear people, especially Americans say it’s all going to come to an end, China would fall into a stagnation, I say you’ve been saying that for twenty years and it hasn’t happened.

关于中国的预言远不止崩溃论这一种，而事实上，中国的成就已经打破了很多预言。

马来西亚大学中国研究所常务副所长饶兆斌这样认为：

中国已经打破了很多的预言，例如，如果不进行政治体系改革，中国就会解体，如果不按西方国家的想法对经济体系进行进一步市场化改革，那么中国经济将面临很多问题。另一方面，这些唱衰中国的论调低估了当前这一体系在应对因缺乏改革而积累形成的危机与问题时的韧性。最终，他们能够处理部分问题，有一些问题会彻底解决。当然，也会有新的问题涌现出来，他们也能够加以应对。

Well, China basically defies many of these predictions that if you don’t reform your political system, then you will collapse and if you don’t reform your economic system in the way they want, you know, further marketization, then you will encounter a lot of problems. On the other hand, this kind of predictions of doom may underestimate the resilience of the present system in responding to these crisis or these issues that accumulate from the lack of reform. Eventually, generally, they are able to do with some part of these issues, some of them completely gone. And then they does of course other new issues come out there, they are also able to respond.

“如果想要了解中国，他们就需要先关注事实，而非带着意识形态的偏见进行研究。”

新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长郑永年认为研究过程中的实事求是精神非常重要。

事实上，中国共产党已变得非常强大。因此，我告诉那些学者：如果想要了解中国，他们就需要先关注事实，而非带着意识形态的偏见进行研究。邓小平曾说过要实事求是，应该坚持真理，先调查事实，然后做出判断。

Actually the party has become so strong. So that’s why I tell scholars that if you want to understand China, you need to look at those facts first. Don’t, you know, you should not have the ideology bias perspective towards China. What Deng Xiaoping mentioned as “Shi Shi Qiu Shi”. You should, you have to stick truth for facts. So you have to look into facts first, then you have a judgment.

中国的自信来源于已经取得的成就，那些说中国经济将会崩溃的预言永远不会发生。