为什么要跟随纳瓦罗的致命误读？_风闻

（对外文章，首发于CGTN）

Death By Misreading of China

中美贸易战开战，并有迅速升级的趋势，不少的评论认为，这是在按彼得·纳瓦罗《致命中国》一书中的脚本进行。这很危险。

The Sino-US trade war has started and things are escalating fast. Many commentators believe that the war is developing in accordance with the script of “Death by China” by one of US President Donald Trump’s top advisors Peter Navarro.

该书写于8年前，当时不过是美国学术界里那种为博出位而语不惊人死不休的无数出版物之一。作为一个学术成就平平的经济学家和从政经历惨淡的政治人士，此书在他62岁那年出版，差不多就是最后一拼了。

The book was written eight years ago, and it was one of the countless publications in the American academic system that wanted to attract readers’ eyes by exaggerated words. As an economist with mediocre academic achievements and a politician with cheerless experiences, Navarro published this book at the age of 62.

书中到处可见的军事化语言、危言耸听、故意煽动、完全不合学术标准的偏激片面，反映出一种赌徒心理。

The militaristic language style, the alarmist statements, the deliberate incitement, and the one-sided and prejudiced words which are completely out of line with academic standards, all reflect a gambler’s mental state.

但运气不错，这次还真让他押中了，正逢美国国内因金融危机导致经济衰退而国外又眼看中国高速崛起这个形势巨变时期。虽然他既不懂中国、又不懂政治和经济、更不懂得历史和文化，但他那个极端的、歇斯底里的反华立场，却正好迎合了美国当时的一种社会心理。

However, he was lucky enough: the story just went as his writing. His book coincided with the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis in the United States and the dramatic changes because of China’s rapid rise. Although he did not understand China, its politics, economy, history or culture, his extreme and hysterical anti-China stance just catered to the social mentality of the United States at the time. 

于是他放弃了原本的能源和环境政策专业，也不再关心美国国内利益集团和意识形态问题，一心一意干起了这份应运而生的新工作——替美国的经济停滞和国力衰退寻找外国替罪羊。

He gave up his energy and environmental policy majors, and no longer cared about the US domestic interest groups and ideological issues. Instead, he only focused on this new job — looking for foreign scapegoats for the US economic stagnation and the declination of national strength.

2012年他将《致命中国》一书改编成了纪录片，2015年他又撰写了Crouching Tiger: What China’s Militarism Means for the World一书，俨然以中国问题专家自居了。

In 2012, he adapted the book Death by China into a documentary. In 2015, he wrote another book Crouching Tiger: What China’s Militarism Means for the World, proclaiming he is an expert on Chinese issues.

但假的就是假的。据美国《外交政策》的调查，为该杂志撰写中国问题文章的专家学者大多数都不认识这个纳瓦罗。著名的汉学家、芝加哥大学中国历史教授彭慕兰说此人“有意避开了真正懂得一些这个国家（中国）的人士”。曾在中国生活过25年、前中国美国商会主席麦健陆直言不讳地说：（纳瓦罗的书和电影）“在了解中国的人们眼中可信度接近于零”，“充斥着故意夸张、含糊其辞之处”。

But he’s a phony. According to Foreign Policy, most of the specialists and scholars who wrote articles on China-related issues for the magazine did not know Navarro. Kenneth Pomeranz, a professor of Chinese History at the University of Chicago, said that his “recollection is that [Navarro] generally avoided people who actually knew something about the country.” James McGregor, former chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said that Navarro’s books and documentary on China “have close to zero credibility with people who know the country,” and are filled with “hyperbole, inaccuracies” and a “cartoonish caricature of China that he puts out.”

唯一替这位假专家站台的，是那位名声早已破产的章家敦先生。可笑的是，就连这位从未正确过一次的“预言大师”，也不同意纳瓦罗这位新晋大师关于操纵货币、退出TPP和高关税等方面的主张。

Columnist Gordon G. Chang was the only China watcher contacted by Foreign Policy who defended Navarro, but even then noted that he disagreed with Navarro’s claims of currency manipulation, opposition to the TPP and calls for high tariffs.

但运气就是运气，此后的故事众所周知了。这位终其一生从未在顶级学术刊物上发表过文章的“经济学家”，多年来始终没得到过业界承认的“中国问题专家”，五次竞选加州圣迭戈市议会公职均未成功的“政治人士”，在结识了特朗普之后立刻摇身一变，就像是风投圈里面的流行语——站上了大风口，猪也能飞起来。

But luck makes him lucky enough and the story since then is well-known. The self-proclaimed economist, who had no publications in top-tier academic journals in his whole life, failed to become a successful politician through the course of five elections in the San Diego City Council in California. After meeting Trump, his life story went on as the saying: standing in the draught, even pigs could fly.

不被学术界承认没关系，特朗普承认！不被中国专家接受没关系，特朗普接受，而且是全盘接受！

It is acceptable not to be recognized by the academia, but Trump himself admits: It does not matter if it was not accepted by industry-recognized experts on China. Trump’s recognition is powerful enough!

从纳瓦罗进入特朗普竞选团队，直到被任命为白宫国家贸易委员会主任，这两年多来不过就是这么一个可笑故事：只看得懂卡通书的大佬，看上了一个只会画卡通片的门客，两人一拍即合，其结果却是今年以来的世界大变局：史上最大的贸易战在中美两个最大的经济体之间爆发。

From the moment Navarro entered Trump’s campaign team till he was appointed the Director of the White House National Trade Council, it has been a ridiculous story for more than two years. The president who only understood cartoon books took a fancy to a layman who could only draw cartoons. The two hit it off. The result in the world has changed a lot since this year. The largest trade war in history broke out between the two largest economic entities, namely, China and the United States.

纳瓦罗的书中写了些什么一点也不重要，所有真正懂得中国的学者都知道，那些描写与真实的中国相差十万八千里；特朗普对该书如何推崇一点也不重要，因为他的理解能力，也只限于真实世界的外围。对于两人的密切合作，人们只需要关注这样一个事：美国的政治经常需要虚假的事实，因为只有根据虚假的事实才能推出极端主义的政策。

What is written in Navarro’s book is not important at all. All scholars who truly understand China know that those descriptions differ from the real China; it is not important that Trump praises the book, because his comprehension ability is limited to the periphery of the real world. Via the close cooperation between the two mentioned above, people only need to pay attention to the fact that US politics often require false facts, because extreme policies can only be introduced based on fictitious facts.

美国的历史上类似的事司空见惯。近者如2003年执意要发动伊拉克战争的小布什，他必须要有一份关于萨达姆政权拥有大规模杀伤性武器的虚假报告，非如此无法发动先发制人的战争。远者如一百多年前的美西战争，当时派驻古巴的美国记者还天真地等着拍发战争爆发的图片，而报业大王赫斯特一语惊醒梦中人，向他发去了那份日后极为著名的电报：你给我图片，我给你战争！

The history of the United States features a handful of examples. In 2003, President George W. Bush, who insisted on launching the Iraq war, had to have a fake report that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. Without it, it was impossible for the American government to start a pre-emptive war. More than 100 years ago, during the American-Spanish War, newspaper publisher William Randolph Hearst told artist Frederic Remington who, bored of his deployment in Cuba said there was no war, “You furnish the pictures and I’ll furnish the war!”

今天的纳瓦罗，与当年那些在哈瓦那的无良记者、在巴格达的无良专家，同属一类人。其职业，就是为决策者提供虚假材料以促成误读和误判，或者是出于故意，或者干脆就是出于无知。从各方面来判断，纳瓦罗更像是后者。

Navarro in this era is similar to the unscrupulous journalists in Havana and inglorious experts in Baghdad in those old days. Their professions are to provide false materials for decision makers, in order to promote misunderstanding and misjudgment, either intentionally or simply out of ignorance. Judging from various aspects, in the case of Navarro, it’s likely the latter option.

没关系。关于这场贸易战，中国该说的道理都说了，该发的警告也都发了，但特朗普政府一心一意要根据卡通片的材料，按卡通片的逻辑，演绎卡通片的故事，谁也帮不了忙，最后的后果只能自己来承担。

In fact, it does not really matter. Regarding the trade war, China has already told the truth and issued relevant warnings. However, the Trump administration only single-mindedly focuses on the “cartoon” materials. The members interpret the story according to the logic of the cartoon. As a result, the consequences can only be borne by themselves.

今天的中国，不是当年的西班牙，更不是伊拉克。如果中美关系处理得好，中国决不会成为美国的“致命中国”，但如果美国政府坚持相信纳瓦罗这种关于中国的卡通片式误读和误判，倒很有可能致命。

Today’s China is not like Spain or Iraq in those days. If Sino-US relations are handled well, China will never become the one by which the United States comes to death. But if the US government insists on Navarro’s cartoon, misunderstanding and misjudging China, its actions towards China are very likely to be fatal.

借用一下纳瓦罗式的告诫：“献给所有的美国朋友们。希望他们有一天能生活在真实世界里。在那一天到来之前，请大家多保重！”

Right here, let me give a warning of Navarro’s style: “To all American friends: I hope that you can live in the real world one day. Before that day, please take good care of yourselves!”