马凯硕：亚洲黄金时代将至，谁视而不见？

未来十年，亚洲的和平与繁荣将迎来一个崭新的黄金时代。

亚洲主要经济体将集体告别出口导向型增长模式。所以，经济增长的速度不太可能重回10%以上。

如果亚洲主要经济体——尤其是中国、印度和印尼——能够将增长速度保持在每年7%左右，这将是一项了不起的成就。幸运的是，受以下三大因素的驱使，该目标对于这些国家来说显得触手可及：

其中的首要因素可以归结为令人难以置信的历史机缘。亚洲人口最多的三个国家，即中国、印度和印尼，几乎同时迎来了新一代具有活力、锐意改革的领导人。未来十年，他们将引领各自国家走向大转型。

第二大因素是，在国家发展方面，“邓小平-李光耀共识”得到了巩固。不久前，我们接连见证了三场意义非凡的大会：在北京召开的亚太经合组织会议，在缅甸内比都召开的东亚峰会，以及在澳大利亚布里斯班召开的G20峰会。

各方签订的新协议数量之多，令人惊喜。中国国家主席习近平和日本首相安倍晋三更是历史性地握手致意（虽然此次“握手”并未“言欢”），平息了外界对中日爆发战争的担忧。

这些会议之所以大获成功，其背后的关键因素是什么？简单地说，本地区除朝鲜外，其他各国领导人之间已经建立了广泛而深入的共识，各方一致同意把推进现代化和务实发展放到首要位置上来。

这就是为什么东亚地区能取得成功，而中东地区则障碍重重。现代化好似一种健康的病毒，它悄无声息地感染了整个东亚地区。正因为它润物细无声，所以西方媒体对此全然不察，仍在继续预测东亚末日即将降临。

第三大因素是亚洲中产阶级人口的爆炸式增长。这个数字将从2010年的5亿飙升至2020年的17.5亿。跨国公司已经敏锐地捕捉到了这一趋势。

许多跨国公司已经走在了政府的前面，在东亚地区积极拓展。随着国际经济重心向亚洲转移，新加坡有潜力成为最大的受益国。未来，悲观的西方消费者们将难以推动全球需求，乐观的亚洲消费者们将逐渐接棒，拉动全球需求。

但是，盲目的乐观是愚蠢的。地缘政治的阴云仍没有散去。值得一提的包括以下五条：

全世界最重要的地缘政治关系，永远都是世界头号大国（现在的美国）和未来的世界头号大国（现在的中国）之间的关系。

在理论上，由于中国的经济总量（按购买力平价计算）在今年内就将超过美国，成为世界最大的经济体，所以中美之间的敌对和对抗将在未来十年达到顶点。但中美关系竟然稳如磐石，着实令人称奇。

习近平和奥巴马发布了《中美气候变化联合声明》，这项了不起的协议无异于一缕阳光，穿透了本应晦暗无光的地缘政治阴云。

以中美之间的对抗似乎将达顶点，但中美关系竟然稳如磐石

中日关系当属今年最危险的关系。许多人曾担心中日之间会爆发战争。然而，中国和日本没有交手，而是握手了。

如果安倍先生能克制住他的民族主义倾向，专心搞经济建设，促进日本经济增长，将使不安的中日关系得到控制。另一方面，不少中国领导人或许也意识到，前几年中国过于强势，确实把日本逼急了。

展望未来，最重要的地缘政治关系将是中国与印度——也就是未来的头号经济大国和二号大国——之间的关系。当莫迪成为印度总理的那一刻起，各界对他报以期许，盼其能在中印关系上取得重大突破。

但是，边界问题仍然横在龙象之间。习近平和莫迪将如何智慧地克服这一重障碍，全世界都拭目以待。

从逻辑上说，为求制衡中国的崛起，俄罗斯应该向欧洲和西方靠拢。但俄罗斯目前正与此背道而驰。乌克兰危机颠覆了地缘政治的逻辑。如果西方的领导人们能像亚洲领导人们那样务实，他们本应与俄罗斯达成某种妥协。

但是，西方还是跟过去一样自以为是，对俄罗斯施加制裁。西方在地缘政治上的失败恰好助力亚洲从中得益，俄罗斯与中国达成了价值4千亿美元的能源协议。

最后，伊斯兰国异军突起，让许多人大跌眼镜。要不是它残杀了无辜的西方平民，恐怕没有人会在意它的存在。多起斩首人质事件迫使西方——尤其是美国——不得不采取行动。但伊斯兰国是一个得到隔离的毒瘤，它不会构成重大的全球性威胁。

要理解这五大地缘政治阴云将如何影响亚洲，请不要依赖国际主流的英美媒体。因为这些媒体的部分编辑已经困在狭隘的、意识形态化的英美思维定式里，无法跳出。

例如，25年来，英美媒体反复预测中国共产党将走向崩溃。我估计未来十年，“崩溃论”还会不时见诸报端，但中共将挺过这十年。

全球迫切地需要一个权威的声音来叙述亚洲的复兴。

当不列颠帝国横行世界的时候，《泰晤士报》是报业权威；当美利坚世纪到来时，《纽约时报》成为了报业权威。如今，随着亚洲世纪揭开帷幕，海峡时报已做好准备成为新的报业权威。幸运的是，《海峡时报》已经拥有了一批亚洲特派记者。它已经有了产品，现在需要做的就是将亚洲新闻全新包装，输送向世界各地。

未来十年，东盟必将扮演重要角色。目前，认识到东盟“协商一致”文化价值的人少之又少。

更重要的是，东盟把这一文化传播到了东亚和南亚。这就是为什么包括美俄在内的所有地区大国都“信任”东盟能为各方交流互动提供一个可信的中立平台。

但是，要发挥领导作用，东盟必须保持组织内部的凝聚力（避免出现2012年7月金边会议那样的破坏东盟共识的分裂事件），确保明年推出的东盟经济共同体获得成功。

东盟国家，尤其是印尼，必须克服对待东盟经济合作的纠结心态。克服这种心态唯一的途径是运用理性。任何理性的经济分析都将得出同样的结论，即东盟内部任何一个单一的市场，包括印尼市场，都不足以与腾飞的中国和印度竞争。

东盟国家的企业需要更大的竞技场，才能具有竞争力。所以，东盟领导人明年必须咬紧牙关，由马来西亚牵头，推动经济合作再上一个新台阶。

简单地说，所有趋势在呼唤亚洲黄金时代的到来。要把握自己的未来，亚洲人就必须相信自己，发展出崭新的、积极的全球叙事，补充主流的西方叙事。

（马凯硕，新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院院长。本文节选自马凯硕于11月21日在新加坡《海峡时报》全球前景论坛上的主旨演讲。观察者网杨晗轶译。）

A golden age looms for Asia

This is an excerpt from the keynote address by Professor Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, at yesterday’s ST Global Outlook Forum.

Asia will experience a new golden era of peace and prosperity over the next 10 years.

The export-led growth model of the past will no longer work for the major Asian economies. Hence, we are unlikely to see a return to double-digit growth.

If the major Asian economies, especially China, India and Indonesia, are able to maintain growth rates of around 7 per cent a year, this will be a major achievement. Fortunately, this is within their reach. Three factors will drive this.

The first factor is an almost unbelievable accident of history. It is truly remarkable that the three most populous Asian countries, namely China, India and Indonesia, have simultaneously put in place dynamic and reform-minded leaders who can be expected to transform their countries over the next decade.

The second factor is the consolidation of the “Deng Xiaoping-Lee Kuan Yew consensus” on national development. We have just seen three remarkable back-to-back leaders’ meetings in East Asia: Apec in Beijing, East Asia Summit in Nyapyidaw and the Group of 20 in Brisbane.

An amazing number of new agreements were signed. There was also a historic (albeit unsmiling) handshake between President Xi Jinping of China and Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, laying to rest fears of a China-Japan war.

What was the key underlying factor that explains the success of these meetings? The simple answer is that, North Korea excepted, there is a remarkably wide and deep consensus among regional leaders that they should focus on modernisation and pragmatic development.

This explains why East Asia is functional while the Middle East remains dysfunctional. Our region has been infected by a silent, healthy virus of modernisation. Because it is silent, the Western media has not noticed and continues to predict doom.

The third factor is the explosion of the Asian middle-class population from 500 million in 2010 to 1.75 billion in 2020. Multinational corporations have spotted this trend.

Many of these MNCs are ahead of their governments and have stepped up their presence in the region. Singapore has the potential to be the biggest beneficiary of this big shift to Asia. Pessimistic Western consumers will not drive global demand. Instead, optimistic Asian consumers will gradually pick up global demand.

It would be foolish to pretend that all will be rosy in the region. Several geopolitical clouds will continue to affect the region. Five deserve mention.

The most important geopolitical relationship is always between the world’s No. 1 power (now the US) and the emerging No. 1, now China.

In theory, US-China relations should hit a new peak of rivalry in the next decade, because, this year, China will surpass the US and become the world’s biggest economy in PPP (purchasing power parity) terms. Curiously, the US-China relationship is remarkably stable.

Indeed, there is even some sun showing through what should be the darkest geopolitical cloud, as demonstrated by the extraordinary climate-change agreement reached between Mr Xi and US President Barack Obama.

The most dangerous relationship this year was that between China and Japan. Many feared that they would go to war. Instead, they shook hands.

If Mr Abe can restrain his nationalistic tendencies and focus on firing economic arrows to jump-start Japan’s economic growth, this troubled relationship can remain under control. Several Chinese leaders may have also realised that China went overboard in browbeating Japan in recent years.

The most important future geopolitical relationship is between the world’s next No. 1 and No. 2 economies, namely China and India. When Mr Narendra Modi became prime minister of India, there was hope of a major breakthrough.

However, the border issue continues to bedevil this relationship. The world will look upon Mr Modi and Mr Xi to wisely overcome this nagging issue.

Logically, Russia should have been drifting closer to Europe and the West to balance a rising China. Instead, the opposite has happened. The accident in Ukraine disrupted geopolitical logic. If Western leaders were as pragmatic as Asian leaders, they would have found a compromise.

Instead, the West went back to its usual self-righteous tendencies and imposed sanctions on Russia. This geopolitical loss by the West has been a gain for Asia, as seen by the US$400 billion (S$520 billion) Russia-China energy deal.

Finally, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) emerged as a complete surprise. It would have been ignored if innocent Westerners had not been killed. The decapitations forced the West, especially the US, to react. However, ISIS does not pose a great global threat. It is an isolated tumour.

To understand how these five geopolitical clouds will affect Asia, please do not rely on the dominant Anglo-Saxon media. Some of their editors are trapped in a narrow and often ideological Anglo-Saxon mental universe.

For example, the Anglo-Saxon media has been predicting the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for almost 25 years. I predict that they will continue to do so in the next 10 years. I also predict that the CCP will last the next 10 years.

There is a great global demand for an authoritative voice on Asia’s resurgence.

When the British Empire reigned supreme, the Times of London served as the newspaper of record. When the American century began, the New York Times emerged as the newspaper of record. As the Asian century unfolds, The Straits Times is well poised to be the newspaper of record for the Asian century. Fortunately, The Straits Times already has a group of excellent Asian correspondents in place. It has the product. All that the ST has to do is to create a new package of news on Asia for the rest of the world.

Asean will have to play a critical role in the coming decade. Few in the world have given Asean enough credit for the culture of musyawarah and mufakat (“consultation and consensus” in Bahasa Indonesia) developed in South-east Asia.

More importantly, Asean has also infected the rest of East Asia and South Asia with a similar culture. This is why all the major regional powers, including the US and Russia, “trust” Asean to provide a credible neutral platform to enable them to engage each other.

However, to play this leadership role credibly, Asean must retain its cohesion (and avoid incidents like the breakdown in the Asean consensus in Phnom Penh in July 2012) and ensure that the Asean Economic Community (AEC) is a success after it is launched next year.

Asean countries, especially Indonesia, must overcome their schizophrenic attitude towards Asean economic cooperation. The only way to overcome this attitude is to use the force of reason. Any rational economic analysis will show that no Asean market, not even Indonesia’s, is big enough to compete with China and India if they take off.

Asean companies need a bigger playing field if they are to become competitive. Hence, next year, led by Malaysia, Asean leaders must bite the bullet and push economic cooperation to the next level.

In short, all the trends are pointing towards a new golden era for the region. To understand their own futures, the Asians must believe in themselves and develop new positive global narratives to supplement the dominant negative Western narratives.