布热津斯基：太平洋宪章——大棋局的嬗变

【2017年5月27日，美国总统卡特的国家安全事务助理、美国-中国协会副主席、地缘政治专家兹比格涅夫·卡济米尔兹·布热津斯基，在美国弗吉尼亚州逝世，享年89岁。

布热津斯基为中美关系的发展做出重大贡献，支持和推动了中美建交，曾在1978、1984、1994和1997年访问中国。其著作《大棋局》，在中国也颇有反响。

近年来，高龄的布热津斯基依旧活跃于地缘政治界，多次在媒体上发表关于中美关系的见解。当美国舆论认为中国“民族主义”“民粹主义”高涨时，布热津斯基表示：“民族主义是一个非常正常的现象，我们都会经历民族主义兴盛的阶段……任何的摩擦都应该避免。我觉得中国政府对此有非常清醒的认识，目前和平崛起还是主调，我希望能持续下去。”“双方的民族主义情绪会减损双边关系，这对两国都不好。”

本文发表于2014年10月时任美国总统奥巴马在北京访问期间，在简短的采访中，布热津斯基提出了中美应进一步正式签署“太平洋宪章”的建议。他认为中美虽在民主人权等价值观方面存在差异，但双方都已认识到彼此唇齿相依，为全球稳定而加强合作是共同事业。这些大体上反映了布热津斯基近年的“中美观”，观察者网特重刊本文，以飨读者。】

11月12日，国家主席习近平在人民大会堂举行欢迎仪式，欢迎美国总统奥巴马对中国进行国事访问。

**《世界邮报》：**不久前，你提出美国应面向中国“全新开放”，并提出中美应签署“太平洋宪章”。你是基于怎样的战略推理得出这个结论的？

**布热津斯基：**全球秩序混乱的趋势越来越明显，这就决定了美国越来越难以单凭自己去应付雨后春笋般出现的混乱局面。

今天，我们看到俄罗斯在欧洲独断专行——它吞并克里米亚，并试图动摇乌克兰的稳定，重新开启了通过武力实现领土变更的封印——这是希特勒死后欧洲首次面对这样的问题。另外，激进主义在中东地区爆炸式扩张，它已经传播到了巴基斯坦和阿富汗，并可能进一步向东北方向的中国传播。

今天的中国是一个大国，在经济上已与美国平起平坐，它还是一个军事强国。和美国一样，国际秩序的稳定也与中国利害攸关。如果无法保证稳定，中国经济发展这个首要任务便会遭遇风险。

因此，防止世界形势朝暴力和混乱进一步堕落，是符合中美两国共同利益的。

**《世界邮报》：**你的意思是否是中美应该结盟？

**布热津斯基：**我说的既不是结盟，也不是搞一些戏剧性的联合行动。我的意思是，全世界最重要的两个国家，应当以负责任的方式处理对两国利益构成威胁的事务。中美合作将向世界证明，大国不光为自身谋取利益，也会为了全球稳定而合作。

布热津斯基

今天，我们需要中美关系更进一步，这种关系不应局限于维护双方具体的国家利益，而应专注于维护世界稳定，防止当前的各种矛盾进一步失控，最后发展到无可救药的地步。中美应保障全球局势不至于滑向混乱，消除世界公众的疑惧。

1941年，美英两国首脑签署了《大西洋宪章》。在那个历史时刻，正是它产生了这样的影响。

**《世界邮报》：**但是，民主和人权是英国和美国共有的价值观。中国和美国政治制度差异如此巨大，真能建立起这种伙伴关系吗？

布热津斯基：“宪章”这个概念，表示这是一件严肃的事业，而不是一串口号。是的，中美两国的确差异巨大，但更重要的是，双方都已认识到彼此唇齿相依。这在一定程度上将促使两国加强合作。

比如，在我看来，中国可以在维护中东地区稳定上发挥独特的作用。由于该地的殖民历史，法国和英国难有作为。美国在伊拉克先发制人地发动攻击，造成当地势力四分五裂，严重削弱了美国的力量。中国的经济、能源利益已经覆盖中东地区，而又没有什么政治包袱。这样看来，维护和巩固当地的稳定局势似乎与中国的利益息息相关。

**《世界邮报》：**从历史上看，中国一直是中央王国，以朝贡体系维持对周边地区的支配。从未曾扮演过全球性角色的中国，能否接受挑战与美国一起扮演这样的角色？

**布热津斯基：**中国自身的利益已遍布全球各地，这使得它必须接受这一挑战。美国和中国对彼此来说如此重要：合作更紧密，两国都会受益；任由全球秩序崩坏，两国都将受损。

中国已认识到，现今的世界已不再有唯一的霸主来承担维护稳定的责任。现在，我们需要对稳定做出共同的承诺。最大、最有影响力的两个大国共同为包括欧洲、日本、印度、东盟和拉丁美洲在内的全世界建立秩序的基础，才是合乎情理的。

所有国家都能在全球新秩序中发挥建设性作用。这个趋势已渐趋明朗，就连日本和中国也明白了，相互维护稳定、避免腐蚀性冲突符合两国更宏大的利益。

如果俄罗斯也能成为合作伙伴，一起塑造稳定的世界秩序，那自然最好。但现在看来，他们似已决心走狂热的民族主义道路。

**《世界邮报》：**落实上述建议的期限是多久？

**布热津斯基：**时不我待。过去我们总是空泛地说中美应在遥远的未来达成合作，现在是时候抛弃这种陈词滥调了。如果世界两大国无法加速推进事物发展，我们都会倒霉。

（观察者网杨晗轶译自美国赫芬顿邮报网站11月10日文章“Brzezinski: Why We Need a U.S.-China ‘Pacific Charter’ for Global Stability”，翻页见英文原文。）

In Beijing on Monday, U.S. President Barack Obama called on China to be a “partner in underwriting the international order” instead of “undermining” it. One key American strategist, Zbigniew Brzezinski, who was national security adviser to U.S. President Jimmy Carter, is strongly promoting the idea that Obama’s notion should be pushed further and formalized into a “Pacific Charter.”

In this interview, I asked Brzezinski to flesh out his idea:

WorldPost: You have recently proposed a “new opening” to China and a “Pacific Charter” between the U.S. and China. What is the strategic reasoning behind this proposal at this time?

Zbigniew Brzezinski: It is dictated by global trends that point to more and more disorder across the world. It is increasingly difficult for the United States on its own to deal with this burgeoning chaos.

We are seeing today Russia’s self-assertion in Europe. By annexing the Crimea and seeking to destabilize the Ukraine, it has opened up once again the issue of territorial changes accomplished by force of arms -- something that has not taken place in Europe since Hitler. The Middle East is exploding with radicalization. That can spread as it already has to Pakistan and Afghanistan and further northeast -- toward China

China today is a major power, co-equal economically with the United States. It is militarily significant. And it has a major stake, just as the U.S. does, in international stability. Without stability, China’s top priority -- its economic development -- will be very much at risk.

So both countries have a stake in preventing the world situation from degenerating into violence and instability.

WorldPost: Are you suggesting an alliance?

Brzezinski: I am not talking about an alliance, or some dramatic joint action. I am talking about the two most important countries in the world addressing in a responsible fashion the issues that threaten both of our interests. Together that can give the world a sense of the big powers working together not only for their own well-being but for the sake of global stability.

What is needed today is the enhancement of the U.S.-China relationship that is not focused on the specific national interests of each, but on the larger agenda of stabilizing the world before the present conflicts spin so far out of control they can’t be contained. The world public needs some reassurance that we are not drifting into global chaos.

At a different historical moment, in 1941, that was the impact of the Atlantic Charter between the U.S. and Great Britain.

WorldPost: But Britain and the U.S. shared the same values of democracy and human rights.

Are China and America capable of that kind of partnership with such differing political systems?

Brzezinski: The idea of a “charter” is to indicate that this is a serious undertaking and not a set of slogans. Yes, the differences are great between the U.S. and China. But what is remarkable is that both realize that our degree of interdependence is such that if one suffers so does the other. That is a very powerful inducement for some degree of enhanced cooperation.

It would seem to me that China could play a unique role in stabilizing the Middle East, for example. The role of France and Great Britain has been damaged there by its history of colonialism. The U.S. has been severely weakened by the pre-emptive attack in Iraq and the consequent disintegration there. China, which has serious economic and energy interests in the Middle East but no political baggage, would seem to me to have a great stake in playing a role that reinforces stability there.

WorldPost: Historically, China has been the Middle Kingdom that dominated only its region through a system of tributaries. It has never had a global role. Is it up to the challenge of joining with the U.S. in such a role?

Brzezinski: China is obliged by its own interests -- that now span the globe because of its large economic presence -- to rise to this challenge. The fact that the U.S. and China are so important to each other makes a strong case for the proposition that we would both benefit from closer cooperation because we will both be hurt by the continuing spread of global disorder.

China recognizes the reality that there is not longer a single hegemon in the world upon which the responsibility of stability rests. Now we need a shared commitment to achieve that stability. It only makes sense that the two largest and most influential powers establish the foundation of order in which others -- Europe, Japan, India, the ASEAN nations, Latin America -- are, of course, included.

All can play a constructive role here, as is becoming clear as even Japan and China realize they have a greater interest in mutual stability instead of corrosive conflict.

It would be nice if the Russians could also be partners in shaping a new stability. But right now they seem bent on a form of national fanaticism.

WorldPost: What is the time frame of your thinking?

Brzezinski: The time is now. It is time to get past the usual empty bromides about some kind of cooperation in the distant future. If the world’s two top powers cannot manage to get a handle on unfolding events sooner rather than later, we all will suffer.