沙烨：互联网与平行宇宙

【本文英文版刊发于今日的南华早报。作者沙烨授权观察者网刊发中英双语文稿。】

2014年9月，阿里巴巴开始了人类历史上最大的上市历程。这是一个互联网企业向世界宣告胜利的时刻。评论家们都相互赞叹着互联网改变世界的巨大力量。这儿我想讲一个不同的故事，一个关于互联网如何创造了不同的宇宙，一个并行宇宙的传说。

马云将成为首个几乎与地产无关的内地首富

前两天晚上我和一个年轻的企业家在一个日本烧烤店晚餐。隔着浅黄色的餐桌和袅袅轻烟，我看着这个二十多岁的年轻人。在短短两三年内，他创建了中国最大的移动广告公司之一。他的公司在不同的国界之间推广移动应用。其业务为公司获取了可观的利润，也为他挣得了上亿美元的身家。人类历史上从未有过如此的年龄却能以如此的速度积累财富。在那一瞬间，我仿佛有了顿悟。这个年轻人是另一个宇宙中主人们的一员。那是一个互联网创造出的并行宇宙。

穿过一些特殊的输送门，人们被输运到那个并行宇宙。以前这些输送门是通过一些固定的设备来开启。那些设备叫个人电脑。而现在新一代的输送门能够通过移动智能手机随时开启。一旦被输运到新的宇宙，人们的大脑被完全占据，注意力彻底沉迷，对原来物理宇宙不再有任何感知。

在之前的农业革命和工业革命里，社会的发展遵循着一些基本的法则。这些法则包括经典牛顿物理理论，达尔文进化理论，和社会关系的积累法则。

经典牛顿物理理论让我们知道质量，速度和能量的关系。要把任何物体搬移，我们需要能量。物体的质量越大，速度越快，需要的能量也越大。这个简单的法则让人类社会的发展速度受到基本的约束。

达尔文进化理论被用来解释个体，群组乃至社会通过自然选择的过程如何进化和生存。我们积累物质财富，寻找两性伙伴，组群结社，都是为了一个根本的目的。这就是让我们的基因在自然选择的竞争过程中能够生存流传。

社会关系的积累法则和人的社会性有关。人是社会动物。在人类文明的发展过程中，我们慢慢形成了群组，村庄，城市和国家。这些社会结构影响着我们所有的行为，同时也为自由跨越这些结构创造了壁垒。要成为一个成功的社会动物，你需要能够掌握和掌控这些社会结构，而这需要时间和经验的积累。

在新的互联网并行宇宙里，这些法则不再适用。电子以光速穿行。一键之间，万物可以生长，也可以湮灭。输运到这里的人们，不再有任何物理外观特征。他们沉浸在这个宇宙，不是为了基因的延续，而是为了大脑的刺激愉悦。物理宇宙里的社会结构更是和这里毫不相关。如果这里有任何法则的话，那是这个宇宙的主人们在他们自己创建的疆域里制定的。每个疆域的主人可以为他的疆域制定他所想要的任何规则。互联网宇宙的主人们常常有着共同的特性。他们有着年轻的物理年龄，可他们远比常人更熟悉这里的空气。Facebook是互联网宇宙里最大的疆域之一。扎克伯格则是这个疆域的王。而坐在我对面的这个年轻人正在这个宇宙里开疆拓土，建功立业。

互联网形成了并行宇宙

如果有一个法则是这两个宇宙共享的话，那也许是时间的法则。不管你在哪个宇宙，只要你的大脑会随着身体消亡，你永远只有这点时间。

在这两个宇宙之间有着不少连接器。这些连接器是通过那些以电子商务或者线上到线下作为商业模式的公司来完成。这些公司的主体在互联网宇宙，却要引入物理宇宙里的资源来形成完整的交易。通过这些连接器，互联网宇宙改变，侵蚀，分解着物理宇宙，如同用巨大的触手在一个活体上源源不断地吸取能量。阿里巴巴和亚马逊是最好的例子，它们成功地转变和吞噬了很多传统的零售业。物理宇宙里的实体除了配合和改变外别无他法。抵抗是无效的。如果不合作，就等着慢慢消亡。

这两个宇宙会不会在某个时间点达到一种平衡？当物理宇宙里的那些法则被破坏到一定的程度，它们会不会反弹？如果物理宇宙消散淋漓，互联网宇宙也会皮之不存，毛将焉附。可真是这样吗？

我们能否在Matrix时刻到来之前止步？电影Matrix(黑客帝国)描述了一个未来：人们除了维护身体运转的能量，所有在现实世界中的渴望都能在虚拟世界里得到，甚至更多！

没有人知道答案。在那个时刻到达之前，我还是可以尽情投资于互联网宇宙，再回到我的物理宇宙来享受获取的利润。

在阿里巴巴的路演途中，全世界的投资人簇拥而至，希望能从IPO中分一杯羹。马云，绰号“外星人”。短短15年内，这个无畏的企业家从西湖边起步，打造了中国互联网最大的王国，也让他自己成为了中国的新首富。“也许他本来就属于那个宇宙”。想到这个，我终于能为自己的碌碌而释然，转身回到我温软的床上。

（点击下一页，查看英文版）

A Tale of Two Universes

With Alibaba launching the biggest IPO in human history, much has been said about how internet changed the world. Here I want to tell a tale about how Internet creates a separate universe, a parallel universe.

The other night, I was having Japanese grill with a young entrepreneur. Divided by the dinner table, through the faint smokes, I was looking at this young man, just barely in his mid-twenties. In only a couple of years, he has built a mobile advertising company. The company promotes mobile applications across national borders, generating significant profit for the company and a net worth of hundreds of millions for himself. Never before could people of this young age amass wealth in such pace. Suddenly I had an epiphany. This young man is actually one of the masters in another universe. A parallel universe created by the Internet.

People are transported to this new universe through “portals”. These portals used to be of fixed locations through a device called personal computer. Now, new generations of advanced mobile portals called smart-phones are engineered. Once transported, people’s brains are completely absorbed into and immersed in this new universe, making them ignorant of what’s happening in their old physical universe.

In the earlier agricultural and industrial revolutions, the basic laws of we used to define and guide our behaviors were still intact. These laws include the law of Newtonian physics, the law of Darwinian evolution, and the law of social accumulation.

The law of Newtonian physics deals with mass, speed, and energy. To move anything around, you need energy. The heavier the mass, the faster the speed, the more energy is required. This simple law puts a constraint on how fast the society can physically change.

The law of Darwinian evolution is used to explain how Individuals, groups, and civilizations evolve and survive by means of natural selection. We accumulate material wealth, seek sexual partners, and form groups, all for the ultimate purpose that our genes can out-survive our competitors.

The law of social accumulation encapsulates man as a social animal. Through the course of our civilization, we form villages, cities and states. These social structures shape our social behaviors, and in the process create barriers for anyone who wants to cross. To be successful as a social animal, you need to be able to navigate and master the social structure. And that takes time and experience.

Now in this parallel universe called Internet, none of the above laws exists. Electrons are moving at light speed. Objects, no matter large or small, can be created or destroyed with the press of a button. People, stripped of their physical characteristics, dwell in this universe, not for the survival of their genes, but the pure stimulation of their minds. And old social structures do not matter. If there are any laws in this new universe, they are the laws created by the masters or sovereigns of this new universe. These masters are usually of young physical ages yet have breathed in the Internet universe longer than most of us. Each master can demand his own ruling laws in the digital nation that he creates. Facebook is one of the largest such nations, with Mark Zuckerberg its king. And the young man sitting across me is aspiring to create a major one.

If there is any law shared by the two universes, it is probably the law of time. No matter which universe you are in, as long as your brain will die with your physical body, the clock is ticking.

There are connectors between the two universes. They are businesses with ecommerce or online to offline business models. These businesses pull in resources from the physical universe to complete transactions in the Internet universe. Through these connectors, the Internet universe changes, disrupts and erodes the physical universe like sucking energy out of a living body using tentacles. Alibaba and Amazon are perfect examples, transforming and devouring the traditional retail industries with their rise. The entities in the physical universe have no choice but to cooperate and transform. Resistance is futile. Those who don’t will run the risk of extinction.

Will there be a time that the two universes will reach a state of equilibrium, when the laws of the physical universe are disrupted to such a degree that they eventually resist. After all, the Internet universe still has to rely on the physical universe as its foundation. Or does it?

Will we be able to turn back before we reach the “Matrix moment”: other than the energy to sustain our body and brain, we can have anything we want in this Internet universe?

Nobody knows the answer. Before that, I can still keep betting on and investing in the Internet universe, and enjoy the profits in my physical universe.

As Alibaba starts its IPO road show, investors from all over the world are scrambling to get a piece of the action. In merely fifteen years, Jack Ma, the audacious entrepreneur from the scenic city of Hangzhou with a nickname called “Alien”, has built the largest Internet empire in China, making himself the richest person. Maybe he is NOT of this universe after all. With this thought, I can finally have peace with myself, and go to my comfortable bed.