李世默：安倍的“新日本人”和他们的爷爷

数日前，美国总统奥巴马在西点军校毕业典礼上发表演讲。在这次备受期待的演讲中，奥巴马试图重新定义美国的外交方针。奥巴马申明，只有在美国的利益遭遇直接威胁时，才考虑在海外进行军事干预。这大概是近年以来，美国官方在海外军事干预政策上制定的最“克制”的标准。或许，由于伊拉克、阿富汗、利比亚战争代价高昂、教训惨痛，美国的外交政策不得不开始自我反思。或许，由于民众持续呼吁重建本国的社会基础，反对在遥远异国他乡煽风点火，华盛顿也不能一再视若罔闻。

许多人士担心，由于美国转而关注国内，并压缩海外行动，全球秩序可能出现失衡。不过且不用急，因为安倍晋三已迫不及待要登场，扮演救世主了。

安倍晋三在主题演讲中抛出了一个刺耳的新概念，即“新日本人”

上周末，新加坡政府铺开红地毯，欢迎参加2014年香格里拉对话的日本首相安倍晋三。在新加坡领导人李光耀、李显龙父子的见证下，安倍晋三在主题演讲中抛出了一个刺耳的新概念，即“新日本人”。安倍说，现代日本人是国际化的、热爱和平的新日本人，将自信地向海外迈进，在亚洲甚至全球保卫国际秩序。

安倍晋三的演讲主题鲜明，指向明确：中国是敌人（当然没有公开指名）；日本将恪守国际法，守护亚洲的和平与稳定；任何国家如选择与中国发生冲突，日本都将给予支持。关于最后一点，安倍公然声称，日本将从政治、经济甚至军事上支持越南、菲律宾等国。安倍特别强调，日本将为中国的对手提供海军装备。

安倍有一点没有说错，即亚洲已成为增长的象征。近几十年来，或许亚洲比任何地区都更多地受益于当下的全球秩序。亚洲的繁荣无异于现代世界的一个奇迹。

亚洲奇迹有两大重要支柱。第一，美国设计、建立并维持的全球经济、安全架构，保证了地区和平，为经济发展提供了稳定环境；其中，一个被战后和平宪法规约的日本是重要因素之一。第二，中国作为亚洲最大的国家，已成为最重要的增长引擎，不仅是繁荣时期的火车头，更是萧条时期的助推器。

但在眼下，支撑亚洲奇迹的双支柱结构开始动摇。与历史上过度扩张的各大帝国一样，美国正遭遇严重困境。遍及全球的军事干预，耗尽了美国的资源。美国对全球化进程的控制和领导，其代价是自身经济的极度失衡。美国式的社会契约，是这个国家一个半世纪来成功的基础，现在正逐渐崩坏。美国终于意识到，维持全球秩序的成本已远远超出收益。这正是奥巴马西点演讲的主题，尽管官方仍然高喊口号，美国面临的真正问题不是战略重心转移，而是如何在撤退中避免失衡。

与此同时，中国全方位的快速崛起超出了最乐观的观察者预料。世界银行估计，以购买力平价（PPP）计算，中国今年将登顶世界第一大经济体。在经济崛起的同时，中国自然会寻求在亚洲拓展、保护自身的利益。

目前的局势十分明显。先前的霸权国正在撤退，而新兴的大国正拓展影响。在这个新旧更替的历史进程中，并没有什么确定的规则。

这个局势下，安倍晋三高调提出了他的提案——我们“新日本人”来承包吧！

当下，美国的心态十分尴尬，既急于卸下亚洲的战略包袱，又不愿坐视中国取而代之，成为新的领导者。由于这种心态，美国的政客很乐意为安倍的高调再加把火。翌日，美国国防部长哈格尔就表示全力支持安倍的立场。

但这是在玩火！

美国当地时间6月3日李世默在worldpost刊发《安倍的“新日本人”和他们的爷爷》，同日安倍晋三文章《中日应该坐下来谈谈》在该文下方刊出

古希腊历史学家修昔底德写道，人类发动战争不外乎三个原因：荣誉、恐惧或利益。亚太地区的和平无疑符合每个人的利益，但在修昔底德的要素中也不过三占其一。鼓吹以中国为敌，摧毁支撑亚洲奇迹的基石，转而炮制以日本为首的地区同盟来遏制中国，安倍晋三和在背后煽风点火的美国政客无疑是在不负责任地铤而走险。

人口老化、经济停滞的日本，面对强大的中国难免感到恐惧。如带头煽动整个亚太区域反华，日本只会更加草木皆兵。而在中国，由于历史上几代民众备受日本侵略者蹂躏，只会感到民族荣誉遭遇侵犯，由此激发的反应将更为强烈。

本文英文发表于《南华早报》及赫芬顿《世界邮报》，图为《世界邮报》截图

很多人宣扬说，中国正在打破现状。这种说法不是毫无根据，毕竟美国的利益和中国的地位都有根本性变化，一成不变的现状是没有的。但是，在尊重现状的基础上，亚洲的秩序可以和平有序地演变，而日本篡改历史和现状的企图，对上述进程是致命威胁。

日本如此野心勃勃地企图重建军事大国，对支撑整个战后亚洲秩序的国际法体系，是一大打击。中国与亚洲各国是不会容忍日本这一修正企图的。

据安倍晋三声称，日本领导的亚洲秩序将按照国际法解决一切争端，这完全是欺世之言。全世界都目睹了中日两国在钓鱼岛（日本称为尖阁诸岛）上的紧张摩擦，而日本至今坚决不承认存在争端。在演讲现场被一位观众问及钓鱼岛争端时，安倍再次申明了日本的立场：钓鱼岛不存在争端。当然，既然日本政府连存在争端都不愿承认，尊重国际法也不过是空言了。

此外，日本的历史包袱十分沉重，且长期以来拒绝正视。因此，打造并维护亚洲安全体系，日本当不了美国苹果的富士康。仅仅两代人以前，日本侵略了中国、韩国以及东南亚各国，所到之处烧杀淫掠。仅在南京一地，日本军队在几天内就屠杀了成千上万的男女老幼。

在与东京签订外包合同前，美国最好再仔细听听安倍晋三的香格里拉演讲。在最后总结中，安倍说“新日本人”与他们的父辈和祖父辈一样，期望对世界有所贡献。每个中国人或韩国人都必须问一句：谁是那些安倍晋三如此自豪标榜的爷爷们？

（李世默是上海的风险投资家和政治学者。英文原文发表于《南华早报》及《世界邮报》，翻页查看英文全文。）

本文同步发表于新华网社交网络新平台：新华思客

ABE’S “NEW JAPANESE” AND THEIR GRANDFATHERS

By:  Eric X. Li

Singapore – A few days ago, President Obama sought to define for America a new foreign policy doctrine.  In his much anticipated West Point Military Academy commencement speech, he set a bar for American military intervention abroad that is the highest in recent memory – when America’s interests are directly threatened.  Perhaps the lessons of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya are beginning to sink in and be structurally reflected in American foreign policy.  Perhaps the demands of the American people for a “pivot” to Ohio, rather than the far-flung oceans of Asia, are finally being heard. 

Many worry that a self-reflective and retrenching America is leaving a void in the world’s balance of power.   But hold your breath, here is Shinzo Abe coming to the rescue. 

Over the weekend, the Republic of Singapore rolled out the red carpet for the Japanese Prime Minister at this year’s Shangri La Dialogue.  In his keynote address, as Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and his father, the founder of the city state, Lee Kuan Yew looked on, Mr. Abe proposed a ground breaking new concept: The New Japanese.  This new breed of international and peace-loving contemporary Japanese are to confidently step forward and safeguard the world order, at least in Asia. 

There was only one theme to Mr. Abe’s speech and it can be summarized as follows:  China is the enemy (without naming it, of course).  Japan is the new steward of peace and stability in Asia on the basis of rule of law.  Japan will support whichever countries decide to oppose China.  Here he did name some, Vietnam and the Philippines.  Japan will back them politically, economically, and, yes, militarily.  Japanese naval hardware is to be made available to China’s adversaries. 

Mr. Abe rightly pointed out that Asia has been synonymous to growth.   In the past few decades, perhaps no region has benefited more from the current global order than here.  Asia’s prosperity is nothing short of a miracle of the modern era.

This amazing achievement has been built on two pillars.  First, the global economic and security architecture designed, built, and sustained by the United States has served as the guarantor of regional peace upon which economic development has depended.  And a post World War II legally pacifist Japan is a key component of that architecture.  Second, China, the largest nation in Asia, has been the single most important engine of growth that has served as a locomotive in good times and the growth of last resort in bad times. 

《南华早报》截图

At the moment, the twin pillar foundation of the Asian miracle is in trouble.   The United States is suffering from an acute case of imperial overreach.  Its military involvements around the world have drained its resources.  Its leadership of the globalization project has caused deep and structural imbalances in its own economy.  Its social contract, the bedrock of American success for a century and a half, is seriously threatened.  America has now found that the costs of sustaining the global order far exceed the benefits.   Mr. Obama’s West Point speech says as much.   Rhetorical statements by American officials aside, the real question facing America is not how to pivot to where, it is how to rebalance back home. 

At the same time, China’s dramatic ascent in all aspects of its national power has surprised even the most optimistic observers.  The World Bank estimates that China will take the helm of the largest economy in the world in purchasing power parity this year.  No one can reasonably expect China not to seek to advance and protect its interests in the region. 

So we have a situation in which an incumbent hegemon is retrenching and a fast rising new power is making its presence felt.  And there are no established rules to manage this process. 

Mr. Abe’s proposal?   Outsource it all to us – the New Japanese! 

At the moment, perhaps in their desire to reduce their hard commitments to the region but not let China take their place as the new hegemon, the Americans seem to be enthusiastically entertaining the proposition.  Defense Secretary Hagel backed Japan unreservedly in his speech the next day. 

But it is a bad idea.

Thucydides once wrote, people go to war for three reasons: honor, fear, and interests.   Peace is obviously in everyone’s interests.  But it only constitutes a third in Thucydides’ formula.  In seeking to single out China as the enemy and thereby putting one of the twin pillars of Asian success in binary opposition to a regional alliance to be led by Japan, Mr. Abe and his American backers are playing with fire. 

Japan, with declining demographics and a stagnant economy, is in fear of a powerful China.  That fear would be magnified by such an alliance of convenience.  China, whose people have endured immeasurable sufferings in the hands of the Japanese through multiple generations, would have its national honor challenged and its reactions would be amplified. 

The common narrative presented by many is that China is a challenger of the status quo.  That is of course true to some extent, as the status quo cannot go on forever with qualitative changes to America’s interests and China’s position.   But Japan’s revisionist approach to both history and the present poses a real threat to the prospects of an evolution of the status quo that could lead to a peaceful outcome. 

In so aggressively seeking to reemerge as a military power Japan is dangerously removing a key legal underpinning of the entire post World War II regional architecture.  China, and many other Asian nations, will not consent to that revision. 

Mr. Abe’s claim to want to lead an Asia based on rule of law in resolving any and all disputes is flatly disingenuous.  The entire world knows and sees the dangerous territorial disputes that are being played out between China and Japan on the Diaoyu Islands (called Senkakus by Japan).  Yet, Japan vehemently denies even the existence of dispute.  When asked by a member of the audience after his speech about the dispute, Mr. Abe re-confirmed Japan’s position: there is no dispute.  And of course, when one refuses to recognize dispute, rule of law becomes irrelevant. 

Furthermore, Japan’s enormous historic baggage and its steadfast refusal to live up to it make it impossible for it to effectively play Foxconn to the American Apple in Asian security.   Merely two generations ago, Japan invaded China, Korea, and many South East Asian countries and massacred their peoples.   In Nanjing alone, the Japanese Imperial Army slaughtered tens of thousands of men, women, and children in a matter of days.  

Before the Americans sign their outsourcing contract with Tokyo, they would be well advised to listen carefully to Mr. Abe’s Shangri La speech.  In his concluding remarks, he said that the New Japanese are really no different from their parents and grandparents in seeking to contribute to the world.  For every Chinese and every Korean, it begs the question:  Just who were those grandfathers Mr. Abe was so proudly referring to?

Eric X. Li is a venture capitalist and political scientist in Shanghai.

（《南华早报》原文链接：http://www.scmp.com/comment/article/1525221/shinzo-abes-plan-new-japanese-lead-asia-raises-old-fears

《世界邮报》原文链接：http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-x-li/shinzo-abe-new-japanese_b_5439491.html?utm_hp_ref=world ）