罗思义：英政府终于回到正确的对华轨道上

英国财政大臣乔治•奥斯本（George Osborne）上周访问北京期间与中国达成大量经济协议。但这些协议最终能够达成对英国来说殊为不易，因为英国为此付出了惨痛的政治和经济教训。

经济领域方面，英国金融机构获得了800亿元人民币（折合130亿美元）的人民币合格境外机构投资者额度，可用于投资中国内地的股票、债券和货币市场。重要的一步是，中资银行被允许在伦敦开设分行从事批发银行业务，而不再只是以子公司模式运营。这意味着中资银行将能更大程度上获得来自中国总部的财政支持，满足其资本和准备金需求——伦敦早前严格的监管制度导致中资银行将他们的欧洲总部从伦敦转移至卢森堡。

协议内容包括将开启人民币和英镑的直接货币交易，虽然确切的时间表还没有宣布。这是继英国和中国6月达成规模为2000亿元人民币（折合326亿美元）的中英货币互换协议后的又一重大进展。英国宣布将加快为中国企业和游客办理赴英签证。

至于非金融领域，继早前开发商总部基地（中国）控股集团（ABP）公司在伦敦东部港口区签署一项高达10亿美元的投资协议后，中国还宣布将投资靠近曼彻斯特机场的英国房地产项目，该项目总额达12.8亿美元。

中国也将参与英国的核电项目建设——虽然中国不一定会因此获利，因为这些项目本身在英国就非常具有争议性。

这些协议最终能达成部分应归功于英国政治家同心协力展开的魅力攻势。伦敦市市长鲍里斯·约翰逊（Boris Johnson）和财政大臣奥斯本刚联袂访问了北京，首相卡梅伦（Cameron）则将在秋天访问中国。

英国此次的做法显然与其三年前的政策大相径庭。当时刚当选首相的卡梅伦不顾中国的警告，挑衅性地会晤了达赖喇嘛。中国财政部副部长朱光耀为此表示：“坦白来讲，中英关系受到损害是因为卡梅伦首相与达赖会面造成的。”约翰逊则关闭了前伦敦市长肯·利文斯通（Ken Livingstone）在任时设立的伦敦驻北京和上海办事处。

除签署了一些对中国有利的经济协议外，英国此次的政治作派变化极大。**奥斯本一再强调说，卡梅伦没有会见达赖的计划。**曾在报纸专栏撰文猛批英国的中国普通话教育，并宣称“中国文化影响近乎零，亦不会增加……”、素来多话的约翰逊在接受一家英国电视台采访时五次拒绝回答他会否会见达赖喇嘛的问题，而只是谨慎地称“他只是一个小小的市长”。

总之，现实世界给英国政治家们上了苦涩的一课。他们曾傲慢地认为，即使他们侮辱中国，也不会有任何后果。相反地，面对中国的经济崛起，他们不得不彻底调整他们的态度。欧洲国家应该记住这样的教训：如果有哪个国家损害了中国的核心利益，例如支持达赖喇嘛的分裂活动，那它将会遭受不能承受之痛。

当然，中国政府不会像我这么直白地指出损害中国国家利益的国家应该受到什么样的教训，但其他评论员可以不遵守外交礼仪要求道出事实。英国领导人已经发现，如果他们要追求自己国家的利益，他们就必须尊重中国的核心关切。新当选的澳大利亚保守派总理托尼•阿博特（Tony Abbott）则与英国领导人做法形成鲜明的对照，他在当选的第一天就向中国示好，希望与中国保持良好的关系。

英国的经验是欧洲过去五年来大趋势的缩影。一些欧洲国家，特别是与中国保持着良好关系的德国，其经济往往大受裨益。但和英国保守派一样立场的其他欧洲国家对华政策几乎都经历了一个前倨后恭的过程。

五年前，临近2008北京奥运会开幕之际，法国总统萨科齐（Sarkozy ）曾威胁不出席开幕式。但中国国家主席胡锦涛2010年11月访问法国时，萨科齐总统打破惯例亲自前往机场以最高礼遇迎接了他。

2008年初，爱尔兰的《爱尔兰时报》就大多数爱尔兰政党重要人物发起的抵制北京奥运会活动所做的民意调查显示，支持抵制的爱尔兰人占43%，赞成参加北京奥运会的人数则占57%。大不相同的是，2012年时任中国国家副主席的习近平访问爱尔兰之际，每个主要政党和报纸都称支持加强与中国的联系。

**自2008年受到欧洲经济危机的负面影响以来，中国对欧洲的投资，尤其是基础设施投资，已超越了对欧洲的债券购买交易。**中国最近与英国达成的协议是继中国长江三峡集团公司购买了葡萄牙电力公司21%的股份、中国主权财富基金中国投资公司（CIC）购买了英国泰晤士水务公司9%的股份之后的新投资。

英国媒体一直在热论与中国的关系。例如，英国《每日电讯报》就习近平任中国国家主席之前访美时的标题为“中国未来的领导人习近平既受到了热情款待……也受到了警告”；相反，英国《卫报》最近发表了一篇题为“中国经济：令人头痛的争论”的社论：“任何人评价中国经济前景前都必须首先承认，中华帝国取得了当今世界最惊人的经济发展成就。”即便如小报英国《每日镜报》，也发表了一篇强调英国与中国贸易关系积极作用的文章。

中英这次不仅达成了一些对中国有利的具有实质性进展的经济协议，而且英国重要政治家访问中国的政治基调也有所改变（不再称赞达赖等等）。这显示英国政治家希望果断解决争议，与中国保持良好的关系。这样的结果对双方都有利。在保守党领导的政府挑衅性地会见达赖后，中国政府对英国采取了强硬的态度。这清楚地表明，中国会把其他考虑置于次要地位以捍卫其国家核心利益。尽管如此，中国显然更倾向于与英国保持更好的关系以有所获利。除英国经济投资外，伦敦还是欧洲金融中心和世界最重要的外汇交易中心——这对中国相当重要，因为中国正在推动人民币国际化的进程。

英国政府早前对华政策徒劳无益，纯粹是浪费了时间。现在看到奥斯本访华达成的成果我很高兴，因为这显示中英关系回归理性路径。英国政府大幅调整其政策的做法显示，其早前的政策让其遭受的损失远甚于中国。但现在英国政府悬崖勒马改弦易张对中英双方来说是一个“双赢”的结局，每个与此相关的人都会因此受益。

英国财政大臣乔治•奥斯本和伦敦市长约翰逊访华，在北京街头。

（作者罗思义为原伦敦副市长，感谢作者授权观察者网独家首发中文稿，英文原版发表于China.org.cn，翻页查看。）

英文版：

The new reality of China-UK relations

Britain’s finance minister George Osborne last week concluded substantive economic agreements with China during his visit to Beijing. But there are important political lessons as well as economic ones to be drawn from these agreements.

On the field of the economy there will be a Rmb80bn ($13bn) quota for UK-based financial institutions to invest in Chinese securities. In an important step China’s banks are to be allowed to set up branches, not just subsidiary companies, in London for wholesale banking operations. This means China’s banks will be able to tap their huge parent banks’ financial standing to meet capitalization and reserve requirements - earlier restrictions on this had led to Chinese banks basing their European operations in Luxembourg rather than London.

There will be direct RMB-sterling currency trading, although a precise timetable was not yet announced. This followed June’s Rmb 200bn ($32.6bn) currency swap agreement between the UK and China. The UK announced expedited arrangements for Chinese businesses and tourists to secure UK visas.

In the non-financial field a $1.28 billion Chinese investment into British property projects near Manchester airport was announced, following an earlier agreement on an investment of up to $1 billion by Chinese company ABP in the East London docklands areas.

There was also agreement China would participate in nuclear power projects in the UK – although this will not be so beneficial as these projects themselves are extremely controversial in the UK.

These announcements formed part of a concerted charm offensive by UK politicians. The Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, visited Beijing at the same time as Osborne. Prime Minister Cameron will visit China in the autumn.

This UK approach clearly constituted a sharp reversal of the UK’s policy in the previous three years. After being elected Prime Minister Cameron held a provocative meeting with the Dalai Lama despite warnings from China about the latter’s political activities. China’s deputy Finance Minister Zhu Guangya stated: “Frankly speaking, Sino-British relations were damaged because Prime Minister Cameron met with [the] Dalai,” Johnson closed London offices in Beijing and Shanghai opened by the previous Mayor, Ken Livingstone.

In addition to the economic agreements the UK political approach this time changed sharply. Osborne stressed Cameron had no plans to meet the Dalai Lama. The normally loquacious Johnson, who had previously written newspaper columns criticizing stress on teaching Mandarin in the UK, and claiming ‘Chinese cultural influence is virtually nil, and unlikely to increase’, refused to answer five times in a single UK TV interview whether he would meet the Dalai Lama – saying he was only a Mayor.

In short the UK politicians had been taught a sharp lesson in world realities. They had arrogantly believed they could come to power, insult China, and there would be no consequences. Instead, faced with China’s economic rise, they were forced to sharply change their tune. European countries which attack China’s core interests, such as encouraging the separatist activities of the Dalai Lama, will suffer unacceptably painful consequences was the clear lesson.

China’s government, naturally, will not point out that lesson in quite such blunt terms, but other commentators can point out the truth without the requirement to observe diplomatic niceties. The UK’s leaders found that to pursue their own country’s interests they needed also to respect China’s core concerns. The contrast to the approach of Tony Abbott, Australia’s new conservative Prime Minister, who from day one in office attempted to achieve excellent relations with China, is rather evident.

This UK experience is part of a general trend in Europe in the last five years. Some European countries, notably Germany, have pursued continuously good relations with China and strongly benefitted economically as a result. But others had to go through the same learning curve as the UK Conservatives.

Five years ago, in the run up to the Beijing Olympics 2008 French president Sarkozy threatened not to attend the opening ceremony. By November 2010, when President Hu Jintao visited France, President Sarkozy did him the special courtesy of meeting him personally at the airport.

In early 2008 in Ireland a poll in the Irish Times showed a campaign for an Olympic boycott, promoted by figures from most Irish political parties, had the support of 43 percent of Ireland’s population – compared to 57 percent favoring participation. In 2012, in contrast during Xi Jinping’s visit to Ireland as Vice President, every major party and newspaper spoke in favor of closer links with China.

Since 2008, in addition to the negative effects of the European economic crisis, China’s investments in Europe have moved beyond bond purchases to major deals – particularly in infrastructure. The recent agreements with the UK followed after China’s Three Gorges Corporation bought a 21 percent stake of EDP-Energias de Portugal SA for $3.5 billion, and China Investment Corporation, China’s sovereign wealth fund, bought a nine percent stake in the holding company of the UK’s Thames Water.

There had been a strong debate in the UK media on relations with China. For example the UK Daily Telegraph carried a headline regarding Xi Jinping’s visit to the US before he became president that ‘China’s upcoming leader Xi Jinping has been wined, dined… and warned.’ In contrast the UK’s Guardian newspaper recently carried an editorial headlined ‘Chinese economy: headaches to die for’ arguing: ‘Any appraisal of China’s prospects must begin by admitting that the Middle Kingdom is the most astonishing development success story in the world today.’ Even a tabloid newspaper, such as the UK’s Daily Mirror, carried a major story emphasizing the positive role of UK trade relations with China.

Not merely the substantive agreements but the political tone of leading UK politician’s visits to China shows that this dispute has been decisively decided in favor of those who want good relations with China. This is a development which benefits both sides. While the Chinese government’s firm attitude to the UK, after the Conservative led government’s provocative approach to China, clearly showed it was willing to subordinate other considerations to defending the country’s core interests China nevertheless would evidently prefer and benefit from better relations with the UK. In addition to investment in the UK economy London is Europe’s financial capital and the world’s most important center for foreign exchange dealing –a matter of considerable interest to Chinas as it proceeds with RMB internationalization.

The UK government earlier wasted time with its futile policy towards China and it is good to see from the outcome of Osborne’s visit that dealings have returned to a rational path. The sharp reversal of the UK government’s approach showed that is suffered much more than China from its earlier policy but a ‘win-win’ approach is much more beneficial for everyone concerned.