罗思义：保护中国环境需要更多投资

9月，中国宣布了目前为止最彻底、最全面的空气污染治理政策。当务之急，中国政府不仅要出台政策措施，而且要确保政策得到切实执行。不过，除了需要制定法律方面的措施，污染治理还会给中国的整体经济政策带来直接影响：治理空气污染和其他环保问题都需要进一步提高而非降低投资占中国经济的比重。

为确保治污政策得到切实执行，一个由国家环境监测中心直接监管的国家级空气质量监测网站将建立。监控网点将遍布每一个县级市。每个市将会设立三个监控网点：两个监控省会城市，一个监控其他单个城市。中共中央组织部首次被分派直接参与落实环境行动计划。

该计划的首要目标是在未来5年内实现空气质量的明显改善。到2017年，10微米以下的可吸入颗粒物（PM10）浓度必须至少比2012年下降10%。关键地区则制定了更严格的目标：京津冀地区2017年的PM2.5浓度——指大气中直径小于或等于2.5微米的可入肺颗粒物——必须要比2012 年下降25%，长三角区域的目标是下降20%。为实现这一目标，到时会采取包括关闭北京地区所有燃煤发电站在内的措施。

中国为何突然加大力度优先处理空气污染？原因众所周知！今年早些时候，中国的烟雾和污染问题，特别是发生在北京及邻近的河北地区的雾霾天气，引发广泛关注。遗憾的是，短视是人类的通病，尽管专家事先已经发出了“空气污染将带来严重威胁”的警告，却没能全面推动该议题走上政策议程。英国曾有过和中国类似的经历，1952年发生的伦敦大雾曾导致12,000 人死亡，这一全国性灾难推动英国政府通过了一系列强有力的措施，如《英国清洁空气法案》等。

中国新出台的环保政策已受到国际环保组织的欢迎。绿色和平组织中国气候与能源项目主任表示：“中国政府计划在五年内实现空气质量明显改善，这一时间表充分反映了中国政府在治理空气污染方面的高度决心。”

这一环保政策更是得到越来越多国际方面的支持。国际能源署（IEA）首席经济学家费斯·比罗尔（Faith Birol）最近表示：“中国政府为促进能源效率做出了巨大的努力，尤其是在水电和风等可再生能源方面投入了绝大部分精力。”英国伦敦大学国王学院国际关系学教授阿纳托·列文（Anatol Lieven）指出：“中国人有可能来一场绿色飞跃，因为他们明白这关乎到中国经济的未来。”

空气污染不仅仅会降低生活质量，而且对健康也是一大威胁。中国虽然还没有像英国那样，突遭一场12,000 人死亡的毁灭性灾难，但根据绿色和平组织等多家环保机构的报告显示，北京、天津和河北地区的燃煤发电厂导致了空气污染，并且已经给这些地区人民带来严重的健康问题，包括死亡。北京的主要问题也是由汽车尾气污染造成的。

鉴于问题的严重性及其产生的根源，中国政府采取了诸如限制公务用车的小措施，但这不足以彻底解决问题，必须要在电力供应和运输系统等决定性经济领域做出根本性改变。

因此，除了这些新措施外，中国政府必须制定长远的政策来成功解决空气污染问题。中国环境科学研究院副院长柴发合强调，目前还没有立竿见影的现成办法：“西方国家花了数十年来改善空气质量，而且仍在尝试。中国现在该做的是尽快改善空气质量，但我们也要清醒地认识到所面临的艰辛，而且要准备打一场对抗污染的持久战。这是一场和每个公共成员都有关的战争。”

多久可以成功实现污染治理？英国的统计数据和实际经验可供中国借鉴。巧合的是，中国目前的人均GDP大致相当于英国20世纪50年代初遭遇大烟雾惨剧时的水平，但是中国的经济增速比英国当时的经济增速要快得多，因此中国将比英国花少得多的时间来达到英国现在的经济发展水平。英国花了十年才消除了灾难性的烟雾，尽管1962年伦敦的空气质量仍然不佳，但没有再发生导致重大人员死亡的事件。伦敦用了20年的时间才使空气质量有了明显的改善，根除了泰晤士河污染，彻底改善了污染状况。其他欧洲国家，特别是德国，比英国的环保工作做得更成功。

这些国家的经验表明，环保能取得进展的关键在于：法律措施与经济方案相配套——仅有法律措施，不伴以经济转变是远远不够的。同时也证明，中国经济发展过程中出现的“消费而非投资才能带动增长”的观念是错误的。环境保护需要非常高的投资，因为无污染的运输系统、发电机设备和建筑比污染性的同类产品要昂贵得多。正如中国能源研究会副理事长周大地所说：“改善环境基本上是一种建筑形式，这肯定需要社会投资。”因此，环保不能如中国某些人建议的要削减投资，相反需要非常高水平的投资。

幸运的是，在一些关键技术上，中国取得了领先地位。例如，迁移运动（Transition Movement，一个国际环保运动组织）指出：“中国生产了世界上80%的太阳能电池板……其安装可再生能源装置的速度也远快于其他国家，去年生产的太阳能和风能产品更是多于任何国家。”该组织还表示：“相反，华盛顿似乎因受制于矿物燃料公司的掣肘，还停留在过去止步不前。”

可见，中国推出的新环保政策对本国而言非常重要。但是，这不过是21世纪最重要经济体谱写自己神话时，面临诸多挑战的第一篇章——中国如何成为高生活水准的发达经济体，同时为13亿中国人创造一个可持续发展的环境。同时，一个重要的经济结论是：不管是控制空气污染，还是处理其他环境问题，都需要进一步提高而非降低投资占经济的比重。

【翻页查看英文原文】

Protecting China’s environment will require more investment not less

In September China announced its most sweeping and comprehensive policies so far to deal with air pollution. The priority given to the issue was shown not only by the policy measures but the teeth given to implement them. But in addition to legal aspects measures to control air pollution have a direct economic consequence for overall economic policy. They show that dealing with the problem of air pollution, and other questions of environmental protection, will require a higher level of investment in China’s economy not a lower one.

To implement the policies to deal with air pollution national-level air quality monitoring sites will be run directly by the National Environmental Monitoring Center. Sites will be set up in every county-level city. There will be three sites in each municipality, two in each provincial capital and one in each of the other cities. The Communist Party’s Organization Department was allocated direct participation in implementing an environmental action plan for the first time.

The plan’s central policy objective is to achieve marked improvement in air quality over the next five years. Concentration levels of breathable suspended particles with a diameter of 10 microns or less, must fall by at least 10 percent by 2017 from the levels in 2012. Tougher objectives have been set in key regions. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area concentration levels of PM2.5 particles — those smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter, which pass deep into the lungs — must be cut by 25 percent by 2017 from 2012 levels. The target for the Yangtze River Delta region is a reduction of 20 percent. Measures to achieve this include, for example, closing every coal fired power station in the Beijing region.

There is no secret regarding the reason for this sharp increase in priority in dealing with air pollution. The smog and pollution problem in China earlier this year, particularly in Beijing and the neighboring Hebei region, attracted widespread attention. Regrettably, and as a sort of testimony to humanity’s common international short sightedness, prior warnings by experts of the serious danger from air pollution were insufficient to push the issue radically up the policy agenda. Britain had a similar experience to China as it took the national catastrophe of the 1952 Great London Smog, in which 12,000 people died, to propel through a series of strong measures such as the UK’s Clean Air Act.

The character of China’s new policies has been welcomed by international environmental protection organisations. Greenpeace’s director of climate and energy projects in China stated: “The Chinese government proposals to achieve significant improvement of air quality within a five year schedule fully reflects its determination in controlling air pollution”.

This was the latest step in growing international awareness of and support for environmental policies China as commenced. Faith Birol, the International Energy Agency’s Chief Economist, recently noted: ‘The Chinese government has made huge efforts in energy efficiency, and a major effort in renewable energy such as hydroelectricity and wind.’ Anatol Lieven, professor of international relations at Kings College London noted: ‘The Chinese are just as likely to make a Green Leap Forward because they understand it’s the economic future.’

Air pollution not merely degrades quality of life but is a major health threat. China has not suffered a sudden single devastating catastrophe, such as London’s 12,000 deaths in 1952, but reports, including by environmental group Greenpeace, estimate that pollution from the coal-fired power plants within the Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region causes significant health problems including deaths. In Beijing a serious problem is also caused by pollution from cars.

Given the seriousness of the problem, and its sources, small measures, for example limiting use of official cars, are valuable as indicating policy concern but are inadequate themselves to deal with the situation. For success there must be fundamental changes in decisive economic areas such as power supply and transport.

Therefore, in addition to the new measures, it is encouraging the authorities have indicated China must pursued the necessary policies for a prolonged period to successfully resolve air pollution issues. Chai Fahe, vice-president of the Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, stressed that there can be no quick victory: “Western countries have spent decades trying to improve their air quality, and are still trying. What China is doing here is trying its best to make improvements happen as soon as possible, but we also need to be realistic about the hardships ahead and prepare for a protracted war against pollution. It’s a war that will involve every single member of the public."

The timescale in which success can be achieved can be indicated not only by statistics but from practical experience. Not accidentally China’s current GDP per capita is approximately equal to the UK’s in the early 1950s when it suffered the Great Smog – although China’s economy is growing much more rapidly than the UK at that time and therefore will take a much shorter period to achieve current UK levels of economic development. In a decade the UK was able to eliminate its disastrous smogs – by 1962 the London smog of that year was unpleasant but resulted in no significant number of deaths. Over a 20 year period further significant advances in air quality, elimination of pollution from the river Thames etc. radically improved the situation. Other European countries, notably Germany, have had even greater environmental successes than the UK.

The key lesson from countries which have made major steps forward in environmental protection is that legal steps must be linked with economic solutions – purely legal changes, not accompanied by economic shifts will be inadequate. The necessity of achieving much enhanced environmental protection also shows the error in some confused ideas on China’s economic development. Environmental protections requires very high investment as non-polluting transportation, power generation, and construction is more expensive than polluting ones. As Zhou Dadi, vice-chairman of the China Energy Research Society, rightly pointed out: “Improving the environment is basically a form of construction, and one that definitely requires investment from society,” Environmental protection therefore cannot be carried out by cutting the level of investment in China as some propose, on the contrary it will require very high levels of investment.

Fortunately China has already achieved a leading position in some of the key technologies which are required. For example the Transition movement, an international environmental activity movement, noted: ‘China makes 80 percent of the world’s solar panels… it is also installing renewables at a faster rate than any country, and last year produced more solar and wind power than anyone else.’ It stated: ‘By contrast Washington seems to be stuck in the past, in thrall to fossil fuel companies.’

The radical new measures China has announced are therefore important in themselves. But they are only a first chapter in one of the most important economies stories and challenges of the 21st century – how China can build an advanced economy with not only high living standards but sustainable environmental protection in a country of 1.3 billion people. A crucial economic conclusion is that controlling air pollution, and dealing with other environmental issues, will require a higher percentage of investment in the economy not a lower one.

（英文版发表于China.org.cn http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2013-09/28/content_30153866.htm ，观察者网独家翻译全文。）