马杜罗的当选与委中“双赢”-罗思义

委内瑞拉新任总统马杜罗

委内瑞拉新任总统马杜罗，深知自己在追随现代拉丁美洲历史巨人的脚步。在现代拉丁美洲，上一任总统乌戈•查韦斯的声望，只有菲德尔·卡斯特罗和切·格瓦拉可以匹敌。我曾多次与马杜罗讨论经济政策，现在他必须用不同于查韦斯的风格处理委内瑞拉面临的问题，自然也不会获得像查韦斯那样多的民众支持。这一点反映在了此次总统选举中，马杜罗获得了50.6%的支持率，而查韦斯在2012年获得了55.1%的支持率，参与投票的总人数也降到80%以下。但这并不一定意味着他无法成功领导委内瑞拉向前发展。

中国应该熟悉这一点。没有任何一位继任领导人能达到毛泽东或者邓小平的高度，但这不会阻止继任者在实现民族复兴的道路上向前迈步。马杜罗当选总统后，委内瑞拉将有怎样的延续和改变呢？

此前，马杜罗曾常年担任委内瑞拉外交部长，并且被诟不管在面对友好政府还是敌对政府时，都表现得一贯柔弱。但他的政治起源结合了纪律和与民众有关的组织。马杜罗曾当过公交司机并组织了运输工会，并因此名声鹤起。但在那之前的1986年，他在古巴学习了一年。专注和组织能力，结合战术灵活性，这些在马杜罗职业生涯中展现的特质，与古巴的政治很一致。

马杜罗被称为中国的崇拜者。在成为代总统后，中国代表团成为他首批会见的代表团之一。因此，他很清楚中国与委内瑞拉的关系具有双赢的潜力。

“委内瑞拉特色”有力地标志着委内瑞拉的社会主义，就像中国有“中国特色”，这不仅影响风格，也影响实质。在风格方面，拉丁美洲的总统选举活动与政治风格迥异的中国或欧洲都不一样，但是关键的政策选择可以被普遍理解。

委内瑞拉与沙特阿拉伯是世界最大的石油储备国。在很长一段时间里，石油将是委内瑞拉经济的核心。委内瑞拉的民族复兴，也是查韦斯享有声望的原因，是第一次由石油带来的财富被用来造福本国人民，而不是被送到外国银行。查韦斯推出的社会进步项目——健康保健，减少贫困，住房建设——支撑着他的声望。

如果西蒙·玻利瓦尔因保住了委内瑞拉的政治独立而成为该国第一位伟大的民族英雄，那么查韦斯则因保住了经济独立而成为第二位历史英雄。爱国主义和社会进步的结合是查韦斯的魅力，也是马杜罗延续的传统。

石油是委内瑞拉财富的基础，不仅能创造效益，也会带来一些发展中国家面临的常规问题和特定问题。石油产业需要巨大的投资，但雇用相对较少的人力——这带来能否创造足够就业机会的问题。石油财富导致高汇率，给委内瑞拉其他产业的国际化竞争带来困难。

与巴西这样的拉丁美洲国家相比，石油也解释了为什么委内瑞拉具有特征鲜明的政治斗争。因为委内瑞拉有一种压倒性的主导资源——石油，要么受爱国力量控制，要么受买办势力控制，不像巴西这种相对复杂的国家有妥协的余地。每个拉丁美洲国家都是独特的。

作为一个中等收入的发展中国家，委内瑞拉要通过石油收入，最大可能进口满足人民需要的商品，同时也要在本国建立生产。中国是理想的合作伙伴。中国的中等技术制成品出口适合委内瑞拉的市场，并且中国的大型企业有资源投资委内瑞拉的国内生产。同时，委内瑞拉也可以让中国的石油进口来源更加多元化，减少中国对任何一个石油供应国的依赖。这是双赢的基础。

马杜罗意识到了这一点。作为外交部长，他曾亲自处理与中国的关系。但他也关心国际关系与经济政策的相关性。在国际金融危机末期伊始，查韦斯统管经济和外交部，帮助分析这种关系及委内瑞拉的应对措施。他们的政策为查韦斯总统的连任和马杜罗总统选举的胜利奠定了基础。

马杜罗的成功当选是委内瑞拉的选择，但也意味着中国的一位朋友还留在委内瑞拉总统府。

（英文版载于Global Times，作者授权观察者网独家翻译并发布）

  Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela’s newly elected president, is aware of walking in the footsteps of a giant of modern Latin American history. The prestige of Hugo Chavez, his predecessor, was matched in that continent in the present era only by Fidel Castro and Che Guevara. Maduro, who I discussed economic policy with several times, therefore must deal with issues facing Venezuela with a different style to his predecessor and naturally does not carry the personal support of his predecessor. This is reflected in his receiving 50.6% of the vote in the presidential election compared to 55.1% for his predecessor in 2012, with turnout falling from above 80% to somewhat below it. But this does not necessarily mean less success in developing the country.

China should be familiar with this. No subsequent Chinese leader could enjoy the personal position of Mao Zedong or Deng Xiaoping in creating the People’s Republic of China, but this did not prevent their successors from achieving further major steps in the national revival of China. What continuities and changes in Venezuela may be expected with Maduro as president?

Maduro was a long serving Venezuelan foreign minister charged with delicate discussions with both friendly and hostile governments. But his political origins combine discipline and organization with links with the population. Maduro is famous for being a bus driver and organizing a transport union but before that, in 1986, he studied in Cuba for a year. Focus and organization, combined with tactical flexibility, attributes shown in Maduro’s career, are in accord with Cuba’s politics. Maduro is known as an admirer of China. One of the first delegations he met after becoming acting president was China’s. He therefore understands that relations between Venezuela and China have the potential of a ‘win-win’.

‘Venezuelan characteristics’ strongly mark socialism in that country just as much as China’s have ‘Chinese characteristics’. This affects style and substance. In style the Latin American character of the presidential election campaign was different to the politically diverse styles of either China or Europe. But the key policy choices can be generally understood.

Venezuela and Saudi Arabia are the countries with the world’s largest oil reserves. Oil will be the core of Venezuela’s economy for a prolonged period. National revival in Venezuela, the reason for Chavez’s prestige, was that for the first time the wealth generated by that oil was used for the benefit of the country’s population rather than being lodged in foreign banks. The programs of social improvement Chavez launched – health, poverty reduction, housing construction - underpinned his popularity.

If Simon Bolivar was Venezuela’s first great national hero for securing the country’s political independence, Chavez was Venezuela’s second historical hero for securing the country’s economic independence. This combination of patriotism and social improvement were Chavez’s appeal and the tradition Maduro continues.

Oil, which is the foundation of Venezuela’s wealth, creates not only benefits but also specific problems in addition to the normal ones facing a developing economy. The oil industry requires enormous investment but employs relatively few people – creating a problem of creating enough jobs. Oil wealth leads to a high exchange rate, creating difficulties for other Venezuelan industries to compete internationally.

Oil is also the reason for the sharp character of the political struggle in Venezuela compared to a Latin American country such as Brazil. Because Venezuela has one overwhelmingly dominant resource, oil, either patriotic forces or comprador forces control it. There no room for compromise in the way that there is in a more complex economy such as Brazil. Each Latin American country is specific.

Venezuela, as a medium income developing economy, needs simultaneously to secure the best possible imports for its population, bought with oil income, but also to build up production within its own country. China is an ideal partner. China’s medium technology manufactured exports fit Venezuela’s market, while China’s large companies have resources to invest in production in Venezuela itself. But simultaneously Venezuela helps China diversify its sources of oil imports, making it less dependent on any one supplier. This is the basis of the ‘win-win’.

Maduro is aware of this. As foreign minister he dealt personally with relations with China. But he was also concerned with the interrelation of international relations and economic policy. At the beginning of the latest phase of the international financial crisis President Chavez jointly charged the economics and foreign ministry with helping analyze this and how Venezuela should respond. Their policies helped lay foundations of President Chavez’s re-election and Maduro’s electoral victory.

Maduro’s electoral victory is his country’s choice, but it means a friend of China remains in Venezuela’s presidential palace.

(This is an expanded version of an article which originally appeared in English in Global Times. )