罗思义：新年中国梦

作为一名经济学家，我想为中国的经济政策许下新年愿望。

我认为中国最首要的目标是提高生活水平，实现这个目标反过来需要消费尽可能最快速地持续增长——既保护环境又可持续地增长。这也应该是中国经济政策的目标。

但在中国，消费的快速增长这一正确目标，常常会和国内生产总值中的消费比例快速增长（即消费占GDP比重）相混淆。这是两个完全不同的概念。不仅在概念上不同，提高消费占GDP比重还必然意味着投资比重的降低以及由此产生的经济的低速增长。这就意味着消费增速会降低，随之而来的则是在中长期阶段更低的生活水平。

这一基本问题上的混淆是中国经济政策最直接、最危险的威胁。因此，我的新年愿望是，希望这一混淆得以消除。中国经济政策的关键目标是快速稳定的消费增长，这应该得到普遍认同；而消费占GDP比重的提高从策略上讲只会导致更低而非更高的生活水平。

As I am an economist my New Year wish is in economic policy.

The most important goal is that China achieves a high standard of living which in turn requires the most rapid possible sustainable increase in consumption – sustainable both in protecting the environment and capable of being maintained over a long period. This should therefore be the target of economic policy.

But in China the correct goal of a high rate of growth of consumption is frequently confused with the entirely different idea of a high percentage of consumption in GDP. Not only is this a different ideas but raising consumption’s percentage in GDP necessarily means lower investment and therefore lower economic growth. This will mean a less rapid growth of consumption, and therefore lower living standards, over the medium and long term.

This elementary confusion is the most dangerous immediate threat in China’s economic policy. Therefore my New Year wish is that this confusion should be eliminated. It should be universally understood that the key goal in China’s economic policy should be the most rapid possible sustainable consumption increase and raising the percentage of consumption in China’s GDP will strategically result in lower, not higher, living standards.