特稿：拜登访华的深层含义（裴敏欣）

【译文】（译者：未笛）

一般而言，美国副总统并不会被视为政治上的重要角色。在现实政治中，这个职位也很少能掌控权力。副总统是总统缺位时的第一继位者，但在更多的时候，副总统只能承担那些总统急于摆脱的，礼仪性的职责。

但自从比尔·克林顿将艾伯特·戈尔选为副手后，副总统一职在政治上的影响力获得认可，而戈尔本人也确实更多地参与了政策决定。当然，小布什的副手迪克·切尼被认为是有史以来权力最大的副总统，因为他能影响总统的关键决策。巴拉克·奥巴马总统的副手乔·拜登明显延续了这一新潮流，在关键的外交问题上，奥巴马总会充分听取拜登的建议，毕竟后者曾是参议院外交委员会的资深成员。甚至在国内事务上如提高债务上限问题上，拜登推动了两党的早期谈判，尽管磋商最后失败，并引发政治纠纷。

因此，拜登副总统这次到访中国，其中有两天的行程由习近平副主席陪同，这在美国引起了巨大关注。不过，人们关注的不是拜登娴熟且令人钦佩的外交技巧，美国媒体尤其是中国问题专家们的目光，几乎都将焦点指向了习近平副主席。据预测，习近平将在明年成为中国共产党的总书记，并在2013年当选为中华人民共和国的国家主席。@观察者网

美国的政治精英们此前很少接触习近平副主席，但由于中国对美国越来越重要，美国政府也急于了解习。因此，拜登的中国之行肩负了两大政治使命，首先并且也是最重要的，就是与中国未来的领导人建立私人关系。从尼克松访问中国算起，经过与中国领导人快有40年的交往，美国的政治领袖们已经意识到与中国的朋友保持私人关系有何等重要。尽管在美国的政治辞典中很难描述“关系”，但美国最高级的政治官员们已从实际的政治经验中意识到要在中美之间保持合作、发展关系，上述私人关系和信任至关重要。

东道主中国并没有令客人失望，在拜登访问四川的两天中，中国的副主席和未来领导人全程陪同，他们还打破惯例单独聚餐，这是有史以来第一次。西方媒体主要关注这次私人聚餐传递的象征意义，但即使最有经验的记者也不曾意识到，习近平副主席陪同拜登副总统访问一个内陆省份，这其实是开创了历史先例。

这样的待遇一定会让拜登感到高兴。不过向来言辞犀利的拜登，这次却对他与习近平之间的深入交谈三缄其口，因此很难猜测他对中国未来领导人的印象。美国媒体的相关报道也无法提供更多信息，毕竟外国记者除了获准拍下两人会谈的场面外，并未获得更多的信息渠道。对西方记者而言，今年11月份习近平访问华盛顿时，将有一次机会近距离观察这位领导人在媒体密集关注下的举动。在奥巴马政府寻求与习近平建立私人关系的计划中，这次访问将是第二个阶段。那时习近平与奥巴马总统的会晤将十分引人注意，后者如果在2012年竞选连任成功，将继续担任美国总统，而前者在2013年3月中国政治权力完成交接后，将领导中国。@观察者网

拜登访华的第二项使命是通过最高层交流的形式，保持1月份胡锦涛主席访问美国时开创的积极势头。保持中美高层政治对话一直是美国政策的基石。过去二十年来，华盛顿和北京之间一直在努力推动高层领导人之间的制度化交流。这类交流始于克林顿政府时期，比尔·克林顿和艾伯特·戈尔都访问过北京。小布什政府加强了中美政治对话的内容和地位，高层交流更加正式。小布什本人先后三次访问中国，包括两次官方访问以及出席2008年北京奥运会，其副手迪克·切尼在2004年到访中国，当时的中国副主席胡锦涛在同一年回访美国。小布什政府对中国政策的最大成就，就是在前财政部长亨利·保尔森的推动下，正式建立了双边战略经济对话机制。这是美国第一次为加强与某一大国的高层对话而建立高级论坛，事实上除中国之外，美国与其他任何国家之间，包括其最亲近的盟友，都没有建立类似的机制。

值得注意的是，在中美高级政治对话中，美国有许多机会来处理关键的双边问题并应对偶发的摩擦。1月份胡锦涛主席访问美国，成功地缓解了2010年中美之间的紧张关系。尽管拜登访华的政治议程尚未公开，但很有可能是两方借此处理一些敏感问题，诸如南海争议、美国财政问题、中国大量持有美国主权债务，以及台湾问题等等。

由于美国政府不会正式授权其副总统与外国政府谈判，拜登此行没有达成任何政治协议也在情理之中。但是，拜登访华的重要性并不会因此被埋没。美国副总统拜访中国未来领导人这件事本身，就足以说明华盛顿确信中美之间的长期关系具有战略上的重要意义。

裴敏欣是政治学教授，亨廷顿弟子，任教于克莱蒙麦肯纳学院（克莱蒙，加利福尼亚）

附英文原稿：

Behind Biden’s China Visit

By Pei Minxin

American vice presidents are not generally considered powerful political figures. Formally, the position carries practically no executive authority. Besides being the first in line to succeed the presidency, an American vice president occupies himself with mostly ceremonial duties which the president himself loath.

But since Bill Clinton picked Al Gore to be his running mate, the office of the vice president has assumed increasing political clout and the vice president himself has exercised rising influence on policy. Of course, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush’s vice president, is generally thought to be the most powerful vice president in history because of his impact on Bush’s key policy decisions. Joe Biden, President Barack Obama’s vice president, apparently is continuing this new tradition. A former veteran senator versed in foreign affairs, Biden has become a key advisor to Obama on critical foreign policy issues. Even on domestic matters, such as raising the national debt ceiling, Biden led the initial negotiations with the Republicans before the talks collapsed and degenerated into a sad political spectacle.

So when Vice President Biden visited China and spent two days in the company of Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, his trip received enormous interest in the United States. The reason, however, was not because Americans were drawn to a demonstration of Biden’s diplomatic skills, which are considerable and admired. The focus of the American press in general, and the China-watching community in particular, was almost exclusively on Vice President Xi, who is expected to become the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party next year and the president of the People’s Republic in 2013.

To American political elites, Vice President Xi is an unfamiliar figure. Given China’s importance to the United States, getting to know Mr. Xi is regarded as a top political priority for Washington. So Biden’s visit to China had two practical objectives. First and foremost, it was to establish a personal relationship with China’s future leader. After dealing with Chinese leaders since President Nixon’s visit almost 40 years ago, American political leaders have come to appreciate the vital importance of personal ties with their Chinese counterparts. Guanxi may not be part of America’s political lexicon, but top American officials know from their own political experience that personal contact and trust are vital if they want to work together and seek better relations with China.

Biden’s Chinese hosts did not disappoint him. For the first time in history, China’s vice president and future leader accompanied the visiting American vice president on a two-day trip to Sichuan, where they dined informally and alone. Western press coverage only picked up the symbolism conveyed by the private dinner between Biden and Xi, but even the most seasoned reporters missed the historic precedent set by Xi’s accompanying Biden to an interior province.

Biden himself must have been delighted by the treatment. However, the normally loquacious Biden has remained tight-lipped about his extended conversations with Mr. Xi, so it is hard to guess his impressions of China’s future leader. The American press reports were no help, either, since foreign reporters were given no more than a photo opportunity to cover the meetings between Mr. Xi and Vice President Biden.

But Western journalists will have another chance to see more closely how Mr. Xi handles himself under more press scrutiny when he visits Washington in November this year. That would be the second phase of the Obama administration’s plan to seek to establish a personal rapport with Mr. Xi. The highlight of Mr. Xi’s Washington visit would be his meeting with President Obama who, should he win re-election in 2012, will be the American leader Mr. Xi will deal with after China’s own leadership succession is completed in March 2013.

The second objective of Biden’s visit was to maintain, through the symbolisms of a top-level exchange, the positive momentum generated by President Hu Jintao’s trip to Washington in January. Maintaining high-level political dialogue between the United States and China has been a cornerstone of Washington’s engagement policy. Over the last two decades, Washington and Beijing have worked very hard to regularize exchanges between their senior leaders. Such exchanges began during the Clinton administration. Both Bill Clinton and Al Gore visited Beijing. But at a formal level, it was the Bush Administration that raised the visibility and status of U.S.-China political dialogue. Bush himself visited China three times (two official visits plus his attendance at the 2008 Beijing Olympics). His Vice President Dick Cheney went to China in 2004 (Hu Jintao, Vice President of China at that time, reciprocated the visit in the same year.) The signal achievement of the Bush Administration’s China policy was the formal establishment of the bilateral Strategic Economic Dialogue, which was set up and managed by the former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. It was the first time the United States formed such a high-level forum to facilitate senior-level dialogue with a major power. Indeed, except for China, the United States has no similar forum with any other country, even its closest allies.

What is notable about setting up and maintaining regular high-level political dialogues with China is that the United States has multiple opportunities to address key bilateral issues and manage occasional frictions. President Hu’s visit to Washington in January succeeded in reducing the tensions between the United States and China that had built up in 2010. Although the specific policy agenda of Biden’s visit to China was not disclosed, it is very likely that both sides tackled sensitive issues such as the South China Sea disputes, America’s fiscal problems, China’s vast holdings in American sovereign debt, and Taiwan.

Since American Vice Presidents normally are not empowered to negotiate deals with foreign governments, it came as no surprise that Biden’s visit yielded no specific agreements. But the real significance of his visit lies elsewhere. The symbolism of an American vice president calling upon a future Chinese leader bespeaks the strategic importance Washington attaches to its long-term engagement with China.

Pei Minxin is a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, California  

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